Leeds Pre Match - Friday 3rd November

[alanf0x]

Have seen a lot of Leeds this year. In my opinion…

- they don’t play with a number 9. Rutter starts there but drops deep once kicked off to drag centres backs with him. This may mean we stick with Vestergaad, he would hold his position deep rather than following. His pace worries me, but clearly confident at the moment 

- Piroe plays in the 10, rather than number 9 which I thought he was 

- so much pace from Rutter, James and Summerville. We will need to track these

- their fullbacks are woeful and main weakness to the team. Mavididi should have a good go at Ayling

- Djed Spence would be much stronger option, but looks like Friday too soon for him to be back  

 

They play direct as we did when we won the Premier league. Play on the counter with pace. We should press them all over from the off. 
 

A great game awaits - 2-2 for me. 

[KFS]

I’ve learned over the years that being a jittering loser supporting this team is no fun. Everyone should lean into being a cocky bully pushing around the guff in this league. Give yourself a season as a Leeds or Forest fan.

 

Quite offended that the other clubs in this league even exist, tbh. 

[murphy]

I think  that some people are being unduly cautious.  I get it.  Being a Leicester fan can do that to you and it is usually myself that errs on the side of pessimism, but I find myself on the other side of the argument for once.

 

As much as only a third of the season has been played and acknowledging that there are still a lot of points to play for, you also have to factor in the quality of our squad relative to the rest of the division, the lead we already have and the dominance that we have shown thus far.  To fail from here with this squad would take a catastrophe,  In fact we can afford for the wheels to come off to an extent.   Averaging 2 points per game from hereon in would still give us 103 points, beating our own record and surely guaranteeing promotion.  We have been averaging  2.78 points per game thus far.  

 

 

 

Edited 31 October 2023 by murphy

[Out Foxed]

4 hours ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

Have we learned nothing from missing out on top 4 those 2 seasons?

 

Nothing is certain until it's certain.

we were going against billion dollar clubs with massive resources and squad depth. not quite the same thing.

 

as much as i agree not to count our chickens.

[Jack1993]

I can see why people are optimistic to be honest, the collapse of form it would take us not to get promoted is unbelievable. It could happen but it would be a huge shock. 

 

I'm only talking about promotion here, not the title. 

 

 

[Reg Vardy]

Based on last year ten wins for the payoffs……32 to play.

[FosseSpark]

Our games after leeds and middlesborough are a joke. Watford, Sheff Weds, Plymouth, West Brom, Milwall, Birmingham, Rotherham. 

We should be taking 18 out of 21 points from that last 7 games. So by the time we play Ipswich we could be on 60 points half way through the season. Most points after 23 games is Reading's 56. We should be aiming to beat that after the start we've had and how much other clubs will be feeling the harshness of the season over the next weeks.

 

Edited 31 October 2023 by FosseSpark

[Deeg67]

7 hours ago, Babylon said:

There would be 31 games and 93 points to play for. Can people stop with the "insurmountable" stuff because it's in no way shape or form impossible to overcome. 

 

It's almost like people have forgotten the points swing we had against Man U only a few seasons ago. 

Indeed, crazy early for that.

 

Expected goals is a flawed stat for sure, but interesting nonetheless.  In fact the top team in the league in xG differential is Southampton (Leeds is 3rd, and we’re 4th).   We have by far the biggest gap between actual and xG differential of anybody in the top half of the table.  Under Enzo we’re obviously very balanced and very good, but there may be a bit of luck involved in that points gap with Leeds and Southampton.

 

As far as Leeds and their ability to turn us over, the top two players in the league for xG and xA per 90 are Rutter and Summerville, and James is 6th.  They have the weapons to hurt us if we’re not at our best.

[Guest glasgowfox]

Whilst I get some of the concerns about Leeds (scum).....let's not forget they are 14 points behind us for a reason.

[Sunbury Fox]

Lose this and there is a very good chance we could be 2nd in a week's time, given Ipswich's next 2 fixtures in that time. Crazy really, given that we've won 13 of 14 so far. 

[Jobyfox]

9 minutes ago, Sunbury Fox said:

Lose this and there is a very good chance we could be 2nd in a week's time, given Ipswich's next 2 fixtures in that time. Crazy really, given that we've won 13 of 14 so far. 

Yes Ipswich are gradually moving from mild amusement to maximum irritation 

[Nalis]

4 points from Leeds and Boro would be a good outcome for me

[Poznan34]

3 hours ago, Deeg67 said:

Indeed, crazy early for that.

 

Expected goals is a flawed stat for sure, but interesting nonetheless.  In fact the top team in the league in xG differential is Southampton (Leeds is 3rd, and we’re 4th).   We have by far the biggest gap between actual and xG differential of anybody in the top half of the table.  Under Enzo we’re obviously very balanced and very good, but there may be a bit of luck involved in that points gap with Leeds and Southampton.

 

As far as Leeds and their ability to turn us over, the top two players in the league for xG and xA per 90 are Rutter and Summerville, and James is 6th.  They have the weapons to hurt us if we’re not at our best.

Have you got a link to those stats?

[Cincinnati Fox]

7 hours ago, murphy said:

I think  that some people are being unduly cautious.  I get it.  Being a Leicester fan can do that to you and it is usually myself that errs on the side of pessimism, but I find myself on the other side of the argument for once.

 

As much as only a third of the season has been played and acknowledging that there are still a lot of points to play for, you also have to factor in the quality of our squad relative to the rest of the division, the lead we already have and the dominance that we have shown thus far.  To fail from here with this squad would take a catastrophe,  In fact we can afford for the wheels to come off to an extent.   Averaging 2 points per game from hereon in would still give us 103 points, beating our own record and surely guaranteeing promotion.  We have been averaging  2.78 points per game thus far.  

 

 

 

If we were in the premier league, Leeds at home would be a must win and everyone would expect a win.

they are nothing special 

[Ric Flair]

41 minutes ago, Sunbury Fox said:

Lose this and there is a very good chance we could be 2nd in a week's time, given Ipswich's next 2 fixtures in that time. Crazy really, given that we've won 13 of 14 so far. 

Ipswich have been unbelievable, I don't think they've been given anywhere near as much coverage as we have. Crazy that is.

[CosbehFox]

3 hours ago, Deeg67 said:

Indeed, crazy early for that.

 

Expected goals is a flawed stat for sure, but interesting nonetheless.  In fact the top team in the league in xG differential is Southampton (Leeds is 3rd, and we’re 4th).   We have by far the biggest gap between actual and xG differential of anybody in the top half of the table.  Under Enzo we’re obviously very balanced and very good, but there may be a bit of luck involved in that points gap with Leeds and Southampton.

 

As far as Leeds and their ability to turn us over, the top two players in the league for xG and xA per 90 are Rutter and Summerville, and James is 6th.  They have the weapons to hurt us if we’re not at our best.

Caveat to that is what’s the xG conceded? 
 

The obvious difference for me compared to everyone else is our goals conceded being so much superior 

[CosbehFox]

28 minutes ago, Poznan34 said:

Have you got a link to those stats?

https://footystats.org/england/championship/xg

 

amazed to see Leeds as the lowest xG against 

Edited 31 October 2023 by CosbehFox

[kristianity77]

Having looked at their squad they do have a lot of good players.  A lad at work is a Leeds fan and he thinks the difference between us both this season is that when they have an off day they always get punished for it results wise, but when we have an off day, we always seem to find the result regardless.  

 

Pretty fair assessment if you ask me. 

[Poznan34]

14 minutes ago, CosbehFox said:

https://footystats.org/england/championship/xg

 

amazed to see Leeds as the lowest xG against 

Interesting, I normally look here: https://fbref.com/en/comps/10/Championship-Stats and they have us clearly the best on xG. FBref get their figures from Opta, I'm not sure about FootyStats. 

[Ric Flair]

7 minutes ago, Poznan34 said:

Interesting, I normally look here: https://fbref.com/en/comps/10/Championship-Stats and they have us clearly the best on xG. FBref get their figures from Opta, I'm not sure about FootyStats. 

Yeah I am surprised by footy stats. I use fbref and we have the best xG for and against. I can't see how sites can be that far apart, it's quite a lot!!

[Stevosevic]

16 minutes ago, kristianity77 said:

Having looked at their squad they do have a lot of good players.  A lad at work is a Leeds fan and he thinks the difference between us both this season is that when they have an off day they always get punished for it results wise, but when we have an off day, we always seem to find the result regardless.  

 

Pretty fair assessment if you ask me. 

Kinda fair but also when I look back at our results I can only think of one game where I don’t think we were the better side…or maybe it could be argued we weren’t…and that was the Sunderland game. 
 

Even the game we lost we should have won.

[Ric Flair]

17 minutes ago, kristianity77 said:

Having looked at their squad they do have a lot of good players.  A lad at work is a Leeds fan and he thinks the difference between us both this season is that when they have an off day they always get punished for it results wise, but when we have an off day, we always seem to find the result regardless.  

 

Pretty fair assessment if you ask me. 

Tactically superior makes a huge difference.

[Md9]

Bit nervous about this one even though shouldn’t really be.Leeds are ok but can be beat as we have seen just need to keep it tight first half don’t give them any silly chances as the can punish you, pick them off on the counter with mavadidi fatawu and vardy would love to send the fans home crying after a 4-0 loss 

[Koke]

I'm not even that bothered. A draw would be perfectly fine. What's there to be nervous about? We're 14 points ahead of these. Even a loss would make us 11 points clear.

[jmono84]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

Yeah I am surprised by footy stats. I use fbref and we have the best xG for and against. I can't see how sites can be that far apart, it's quite a lot!!

Difference is per 90 but I still don’t understand how it works to make us go from best to 4th??