Luck and it's role in football

[An Away Move]

 I had a motorbike accident several years ago where I nearly went under the back wheel of a coach. I got on my motorbike afterwards and rode for a a couple of months more before I stumbled on an article about the role of luck in accidents and football. You can be the most defensive motorcyclist or cyclist on the road but it is always the thing the thing that you cannot see coming that leads to the accident - like a bird flying into your face. It's the same with football. The ball is round which creates unpredictable outcomes and means luck on a given day can play a massive role and a shite team always has the chance of beating a more skilful team. We saw that tonight against Leeds. We absolutely dominated them. What were the odds before the game that we would be undone by the refereeing team disallowing a perfectly good goal for us at a crucial stage of the match and then a a double deflected goal to them followed by another deflected goal?! That was a very unfortunate and cruel result. Literally nothing to do with Leeds being the better team. Let them think that because it is pure delusion.  

[Vacamion]

 

Mate, we've stayed up in the Prem from what was widely considered to be an impossible position, then we've won the league when the stars aligned at 5,000-1, then we've won the cup after a long shot worldie and a wafer thin VAR devision.

 

In karma terms, we are still due for a seagull to shit into Patson's eye as he runs up to take a penalty, and for KDH to be hit on the ankle by a meteorite as the goal gapes on a counter-attack.

 

 

Edited 23 February by Vacamion

[Izzy]

It all evens itself out over the course of a season

[Chrysalis]

We played much better then I thought we would, but lets be real it wasnt total dominance.

 

I think luck has gave us a good roll, we were lucky earlier in the season, and we have done alright in previous years like winning the FA cup and EPL title.

 

Personally I dont think luck lost us the game, we shat the bed at end and did a mistake hooking Mavididi, it is what it is.

Edited 23 February by Chrysalis

[Ted Maul]

5 minutes ago, Izzy said:

It all evens itself out over the course of a season

Tends to, depends which games it happens in though- disallowed goal today and blatant pen at Ipswich- that's our 2 nearest chellengers out of the race if the correct decisions are made. 

 

Still better than VAR, mind.

[Paninistickers]

1 minute ago, Ted Maul said:

Tends to, depends which games it happens in though- disallowed goal today and blatant pen at Ipswich- that's our 2 nearest chellengers out of the race if the correct decisions are made. 

 

Still better than VAR, mind.

Both had double deflections too

[Spudulike]

6 minutes ago, Izzy said:

It all evens itself out over the course of a season

Great. Looking forward to the penalties we didn't get, the deflected goals and having perfectly good goals ruled out for the opposition. 

[Nod.E]

With respect, motorcycling is inherently dangerous. We play football in an inherently dangerous manner in the closing stages of games, then seem shocked when bad luck strikes again.

 

I don't ride a motorbike because I know that bad luck can lead to unfavorable circumstances.

[Foxin_Mad]

You kinda make your own luck. Score your chances and don't sit back inviting shots and pressure, you are less likely to conceded. If the ball is in the Leeds half they don't score, the game is that simple! If we are attacking their goal maybe we get the deflection. 

Edited 23 February by Foxin_Mad

[Ted Maul]

2 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

Both had double deflections too

Ipswich only deal in double deflections 

[shen]

15 minutes ago, Izzy said:

It all evens itself out over the course of a season

Another sporting fallacy...

[Supergray22]

7 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

We played much better then I thought we would, but lets be real it wasnt total dominance.

 

I think luck has gave us a good roll, we were lucky earlier in the season, and we have done alright in previous years like winning the FA cup and EPL title.

 

Personally I dont think luck lost us the game, we shat the bed at end and did a mistake hooking Mavididi, it is what it is.

We weathered the pressure early on but prevented them getting in. Then took a lead and for most of the remaining part of the match we did dominate and if not for a bad refereeing decision and fluffed chances then those deflections at the end would not have counted. So whilst the end was shocking we did play very well for the most part against a difficult opponent. 
 

We were in my opinion a bit lucky earlier in the season but I’d never call winning the EPL and FA cup just alright. That was the stuff of dreams. 

[Paninistickers]

 you can see it coming a mile off. I always know. 

 

2-1 v Spurs with 23 seconds left. At worst, teams might draw. Nope, not us. 

 

Bolton away, crucial relegation game..we are gifted an own goal, a goalkeeper howler and they have e 2 men sent off..IN THE OPENING 10 MINS..2-0 up v 9 men ffs..I went for a walk as I knew we'd fck it up. And obvs we did. 

 

 

3-0 at ht v Wolves v one of the worst PL teams ever seen. We all knew it'd happen..

 

3-1 up away at Middlesbrough when they 3 mins went up on the fourth official board. Tbf we got a.point..

 

Tbh, had we had we gone 9-0 v Southampton at 70 mins instead of 93, I'd have settled.for a draw

 

[Chrysalis]

16 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

 you can see it coming a mile off. I always know. 

 

2-1 v Spurs with 23 seconds left. At worst, teams might draw. Nope, not us. 

 

Bolton away, crucial relegation game..we are gifted an own goal, a goalkeeper howler and they have e 2 men sent off..IN THE OPENING 10 MINS..2-0 up v 9 men ffs..I went for a walk as I knew we'd fck it up. And obvs we did. 

 

 

3-0 at ht v Wolves v one of the worst PL teams ever seen. We all knew it'd happen..

 

3-1 up away at Middlesbrough when they 3 mins went up on the fourth official board. Tbf we got a.point..

 

Tbh, had we had we gone 9-0 v Southampton at 70 mins instead of 93, I'd have settled.for a draw

 

For me I could see the concede as soon as the usual happened with Mavididi coming off.  Although wasnt expecting us to concede 3, just 1 or 2.

[Paninistickers]

1 minute ago, Chrysalis said:

For me I could see the concede as soon as the usual happened with Mavididi coming off.  Although wasnt expecting us to concede 3, just 1 or 2.

It was a dreadful substitution tbf..same as at Cov. 

 

We are delicate. The fine line between an absolute machine but pop Casadei or McAteer in, and it's a house of cards

[The whole world smiles]

36 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

We played much better then I thought we would, but lets be real it wasnt total dominance.

 

I think luck has gave us a good roll, we were lucky earlier in the season, and we have done alright in previous years like winning the FA cup and EPL title.

 

Personally I dont think luck lost us the game, we shat the bed at end and did a mistake hooking Mavididi, it is what it is.

We were quite lucky in the FA cup final (the razor thin offside for Chillwells goal, the marginal handball from perez before youri thunderbolt) but we were in no way lucky to win the league we were by far the best, most consistent team that year. 

[Chrysalis]

6 minutes ago, The whole world smiles said:

We were quite lucky in the FA cup final (the razor thin offside for Chillwells goal, the marginal handball from perez before youri thunderbolt) but we were in no way lucky to win the league we were by far the best, most consistent team that year. 

This is my point, if you have the opinion luck had no factor at all in that season, why is luck been blamed for matches we lose?

 

Its inconsistent logic.

[Gamble92]

Luck certainly is rewarded more than other sports like Rugby and Basketball where if you dominate territory you more than likely win. 

 

But I don't watch them sports. Not as many people do. There's a reason for that. 

 

Tonight ****ing hurts, but neutrals will have loved it. If you can find any neutrals who don't despise Leeds that is. 

 

 

[peterborofox]

1 hour ago, Izzy said:

It all evens itself out over the course of a season

Biggest myth in football 

[Spudulike]

8 hours ago, The whole world smiles said:

We were quite lucky in the FA cup final (the razor thin offside for Chillwells goal, the marginal handball from perez before youri thunderbolt) but we were in no way lucky to win the league we were by far the best, most consistent team that year. 

Nothing 'marginal' about the handball. The law was correctly applied and confirmed by VAR. 

[FrankieADZ]

doesnt feel like we are having much luck at times, double deflections, disallowed goals that shouldnt etc

 

feels like we needs to get the monks in again

[Stinkenzo]

10 hours ago, Izzy said:

It all evens itself out over the course of a season

Apologies if that's tongue in cheek but that's absolute bollocks 

[RonnieTodger]

You make your own luck sometimes. Deflected goals often come from pot-shots outside the area. Not our style.

[davieG]

10 hours ago, Izzy said:

It all evens itself out over the course of a season

Luck does but there's nothing 'even' about Pawson's refereeing.

[deep blue]

4 minutes ago, RonnieTodger said:

You make your own luck sometimes. Deflected goals often come from pot-shots outside the area. Not our style.

Deflected goals often come when a defender turns his back rather than facing up to, and making a real attempt to block, a shot from an attacker.  In those cases it's not bad luck but very poor technique and football nous on the part of the defender (and I am amazed to see this happen so often with defenders even of supposed Prem quality, and managers not spotting this and picking the defender up on it).