Election prediction time

[Lionator]

9 hours ago, ozleicester said:

The question that needs to be answered re Farage and his ilk is ...why do they appeal to the "ordinary bloke"?

One starting reason is the tories and labour have made life worse for so many "ordinary blokes"... 40 years of neo liberalism has put profit before people and susequently made ordinaries feel (actually) they have it worse than their parents.

People have been trained by media to blame "others"rather than corporations.

Because they legitimise the conversations that they have behind closed doors, and in a messed up way, it has more meaning when it’s an upper class bloke who does it. 

[bovril]

10 hours ago, ozleicester said:

The question that needs to be answered re Farage and his ilk is ...why do they appeal to the "ordinary bloke"?

One starting reason is the tories and labour have made life worse for so many "ordinary blokes"... 40 years of neo liberalism has put profit before people and susequently made ordinaries feel (actually) they have it worse than their parents.

People have been trained by media to blame "others"rather than corporations.

The people I see queuing up to watch Farage's speeches don't look like they've done that badly out of 'neoliberalism'. 

[izzymuzzet]

13 hours ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

Just like to say.

 

I'm currently still delivering a lot of election material at the moment (along with the post, I'm not a canvasser!), yet when I empty the pillar boxes later there's already hundreds of postal votes in there

 

The vast majority of postal votes are posted within 2-3 days of recieving them. Around 20% of votes were postal in 2019 so I'd guess close to that figure have already voted now. I'm a Labour canvasser and we had a big push last week targeting likely postal voters.

[Sampson]

£1.4bn literally destroyed. This is “the party of fiscal responsibility” ladies and gentlemen.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cll476qzm85o

[Mark_w]

10 hours ago, ozleicester said:

The question that needs to be answered re Farage and his ilk is ...why do they appeal to the "ordinary bloke"?

One starting reason is the tories and labour have made life worse for so many "ordinary blokes"... 40 years of neo liberalism has put profit before people and susequently made ordinaries feel (actually) they have it worse than their parents.

People have been trained by media to blame "others"rather than corporations.

I reckon there's a good chance it's just that most ordinary blokes are pricks.

[Robo61]

28 minutes ago, bovril said:

The people I see queuing up to watch Farage's speeches don't look like they've done that badly out of 'neoliberalism'. 

You are of course right,  but the same people recognise how shit the country now is.  They simply don't make the link between how well they have done and how that effects the current younger generations.  They then look back with their rose tinted glasses to their childhood and can see how the future could look for the young if only we went back there.  Yes I know that makes no sense but to me that is where we are at.  I talk as a fellow boomer.

[HighPeakFox]

56 minutes ago, bovril said:

The people I see queuing up to watch Farage's speeches don't look like they've done that badly out of 'neoliberalism'. 

Just perpetual wannabe victims. 

[Daggers]

With glacial speed, Sunak finally starts to act

 

 

[FoxesWalk]

5 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Oh I think it probably backfires and pisses off all the right (left) people

Pretty much anything that appeals to the right will piss off elements of the left, much of which is fractured and more interested in being correct in their own world view than actually winning an election and being able to enact anything. Those annoyed by this are pretty unlikely to vote Tory anyway, so it’s a relatively low risk strategy when you already have a decent poll lead. 

Edited 25 June by FoxesWalk

[reporterpenguin]

13 minutes ago, Daggers said:

With glacial speed, Sunak finally starts to act

 

 

Presumably by the end of the day either he or one of his lackeys will be sent out to parrot that he’s taken “swift and decisive action”

[Daggers]

Just now, reporterpenguin said:

Presumably by the end of the day either he or one of his lackeys will be sent out to parrot that he’s taken “swift and decisive action”

Good opportunity to get a Taylor Swift pun in the headlines imo, she's been sadly neglected by media organisations of late.

[The Doctor]

9 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

 

Lets not.

yea, I don't intend to debate this anymore. Starmers section 28 redux is just another reason why, as someone who has previously only voted labour, I will be voting green for the foreseeable. Both major parties are utterly shit on this and I'm not rewarding a party for arguing against my existence.

[l444ry]

[zorro en españa]

1 hour ago, izzymuzzet said:

The vast majority of postal votes are posted within 2-3 days of recieving them. Around 20% of votes were postal in 2019 so I'd guess close to that figure have already voted now. I'm a Labour canvasser and we had a big push last week targeting likely postal voters.

Out of interest what are you hearing when you are out there?  Are you going to areas that may not be traditionally Labour?  Are people frightened to say they’d vote differently from you - I remain cautious about the Tory vote capitulating completely (although their campaign/ record would support that). TIA.

[kyleolly]

19 minutes ago, zorro en españa said:

Out of interest what are you hearing when you are out there?  Are you going to areas that may not be traditionally Labour?  Are people frightened to say they’d vote differently from you - I remain cautious about the Tory vote capitulating completely (although their campaign/ record would support that). TIA.

I had Alberto Costa down our street last night the bloke lives on a different planet 

Edited 25 June by kyleolly

[RoboFox]

Ah, man. The post calling people in this thread clueless has been deleted. I was so certain they were about to put forward an astute and conscientious argument as to why.

 

Edited 25 June by RoboFox

[leicsmac]

10 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

Ah, man. The post calling people in this thread clueless has been deleted. I was so certain they were about to put forward and astute and conscientious argument as to why.

Yeah, they did the same over on the CC thread. I was hoping for minute scientific reasoning, tbh.

[izzymuzzet]

48 minutes ago, zorro en españa said:

Out of interest what are you hearing when you are out there?  Are you going to areas that may not be traditionally Labour?  Are people frightened to say they’d vote differently from you - I remain cautious about the Tory vote capitulating completely (although their campaign/ record would support that). TIA.

I'm in the North West so only getting a snapshot really.

 

But yes - going to places I never went canvassing in 2015 and 2017 (was out of the country in 2019, which was probably for the best). I've been to three seats in south Manchester and Cheshire that have been mostly or entirely Tory since the dawn of time. These are reasonably well off areas, lots of middle class people doing quite nicely. Traditional Tory voters are abandoning them, I've got no doubt the polls are right about that. I am cautious about that translating to the kind of enormous Labour victory that some of the polls are suggesting, mainly because I am still coming across a lot of undecideds. But whereas in the past you'd assume a lot of those undecideds would ultimately go Tory I really don't think that's the case this time.

 

The electorate wants to give the Tories a kicking. I'm not just not sure whether they'll kick them to death or just rough them up a bit.

[Daggers]

Labour does not and has not ‘argued against the existence’ of anyone trans. Such a statement is either laughably misinformed or maliciously disingenuous. 
 

On the other hand, the Green Party is so shit hot on women’s rights its published action points online as the election was called included denying women access to caesarean sections.
 

So yeh, a great vote for moral superiority there. 
 

 

[Daggers]

9 minutes ago, izzymuzzet said:

I'm in the North West so only getting a snapshot really.

 

But yes - going to places I never went canvassing in 2015 and 2017 (was out of the country in 2019, which was probably for the best). I've been to three seats in south Manchester and Cheshire that have been mostly or entirely Tory since the dawn of time. These are reasonably well off areas, lots of middle class people doing quite nicely. Traditional Tory voters are abandoning them, I've got no doubt the polls are right about that. I am cautious about that translating to the kind of enormous Labour victory that some of the polls are suggesting, mainly because I am still coming across a lot of undecideds. But whereas in the past you'd assume a lot of those undecideds would ultimately go Tory I really don't think that's the case this time.

 

The electorate wants to give the Tories a kicking. I'm not just not sure whether they'll kick them to death or just rough them up a bit.

I’ve been surprised at the number of people who haven’t told me to fvck off as I approach them clutching a range of literature and a party newspaper. Only one household said no thanks, and that was very politely done. 
 

And, after one very halfhearted go at kicking the sign in the front garden, it’s not been touched since - a dramatic change from previous elections, leaving me wondering if I need all my spares 

[Nick]

Just now, Daggers said:

I’ve been surprised at the number of people who haven’t told me to fvck off as I approach them clutching a range of literature and a party newspaper. Only one household said no thanks, and that was very politely done. 
 

And, after one very halfhearted go at kicking the sign in the front garden, it’s not been touched since - a dramatic change from previous elections, leaving me wondering if I need all my spares 

 

 

'a range of literature'

 

 

[Daggers]

1 minute ago, Nick said:

 

 

'a range of literature'

 

 

Three different leaflets, a poster, and a newspaper - no porn

[Nick]

1 minute ago, Daggers said:

Three different leaflets, a poster, and a newspaper - no porn

Ah, okay.

[izzymuzzet]

7 minutes ago, Daggers said:

I’ve been surprised at the number of people who haven’t told me to fvck off as I approach them clutching a range of literature and a party newspaper. Only one household said no thanks, and that was very politely done. 
 

And, after one very halfhearted go at kicking the sign in the front garden, it’s not been touched since - a dramatic change from previous elections, leaving me wondering if I need all my spares 

I've not had a single f*** off yet. Quite the contrast to previous elections. Even the guy who told me off about Labour's VAT on private schools policy was very polite about it.

[Daggers]

https://www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/24407670.reform-uk-salisbury-candidate-says-putin-seemed-good/

 

The 74-year-old continued: "War is not about as it were punishing or in some way running over thousands of young men in tanks and blowing them up because one person takes points of view which you disagree with.

"I have actually met Putin and had a 10-minute chat with him and he seemed very good. He is not the Austrian gentleman with a moustache come alive again."

 

Boos and looks of disgust were directed towards Mr Malins, who does not live in Salisbury, after he made this statement.