Election prediction time

[izzymuzzet]

41 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

Can anyone explain what Labour are actually proposing to do? 

 

So far I'm only aware of votes for 16 year olds and charging VAT on private school tuition fees. 

 

I can't remember an election where the opposition was considered such a favourite without actually having any policies. 

3 that spring to mind:

 

Bringing train operators back into public ownership

Establish a new publicly owned energy company

Bring into law a new bill of workers rights including banning zero hour contracts and strengthening union rights

 

 

 

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, The Doctor said:

 

with starmer, labour will be in charge for 5 years then in the wilderness for another 15-20.

Can’t see it. All the demographic data is on his side. Tories are finished for a generation imo. Much like how so many baby boomers will never vote Labour and still go on about Labour in the 1970s as the reason, I think you’ll find Tories are almost done for life with the Millennials generation now too, Brexit will see to that I think as all the polls from that generation show they feel like they had the opportunities swept from under them from the Tories. 
 

Plus Starmer always has Brexit to fall back on. Rejoining the EU is the overwhelmingly popular opinion in the under 70s in all polls now.  The EU recent olive branch of freedom of movement to 18-30 year olds quickly rejected by the Tories was clearly aimed at Labour instead to say we’ll have you back knowing Starmer is a europhile and campaigned for a 2nd referendum.

 

Feel like once Labour struggle with the mess they’ve been left with you’ll see them amping up the “Brexit has been a disaster” rhetoric in line for the 2029 campaign where a new referendum to rejoin the eu will be promised which will keep them pretty comfortably in power (and the referendum will likely pass comfortably too).

 

Fully expect long terms EU residents in the UK to be given the vote on future GEs and referendums as part of the 2024 Labour manifesto like Commonwealth citizens who are long term residents have, you’ll have a couple of million extra voters very likely to vote Labour and to rejoin straight off the bat too.
 

 

[MattFox]

Know a few tories that consume all their media from the Mail and GB news etc that are going to be shell shocked in July 

[DennisNedry]

The National Service thing can't be that crazy if countries like France, Sweden etc have it in some form or another. As much as I'd have not liked it, nor acknowledged it at the time, but volunteering in a hospital or something at 18 would have been good for me. Something to stop me gaming and watching porn for 12 hours a day. 

 

The name National Service is clearly a dog whistle for gammons but it's really nothing like what national service used to be. 

[StanSP]

3 hours ago, Daggers said:

 

Just has no idea how to speak to people that aren't on his level. 

[Daggers]

1 minute ago, StanSP said:

Just has no idea how to speak to people that aren't on his level. 

Doing the job so it’s about him. Zero concept of the role as a service. 

[The Doctor]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

Can’t see it. All the demographic data is on his side. Tories are finished for a generation imo. Much like how so many baby boomers will never vote Labour and still go on about Labour in the 1970s as the reason, I think you’ll find Tories are almost done for life with the Millennials generation now too, Brexit will see to that I think as all the polls from that generation show they feel like they had the opportunities swept from under them from the Tories. 
 

Plus Starmer always has Brexit to fall back on. Rejoining the EU is the overwhelmingly popular opinion in the under 70s in all polls now.  The EU recent olive branch of freedom of movement to 18-30 year olds quickly rejected by the Tories was clearly aimed at Labour instead to say we’ll have you back knowing Starmer is a europhile and campaigned for a 2nd referendum.

 

Feel like once Labour struggle with the mess they’ve been left with you’ll see them amping up the “Brexit has been a disaster” rhetoric in line for the 2029 campaign where a new referendum to rejoin the eu will be promised which will keep them pretty comfortably in power (and the referendum will likely pass comfortably too).

 

Fully expect long terms EU residents in the UK to be given the vote on future GEs and referendums as part of the 2024 Labour manifesto like Commonwealth citizens who are long term residents have, you’ll have a couple of million extra voters very likely to vote Labour and to rejoin straight off the bat too.
 

 

Honestly I think you underestimate the extent to which millennials, and particularly gen Z, despise Starmer and labour (starmers approval rating is -17% among 18-24 year olds). Sure, they'll win this time however their voting coalition is a combination of young people who hate them but hate the tories more, and regular tory voters who don't like Sunak. The latter will go back to the tories under a new leader, the former will likely split between staying labour to keep the tories out, or go to third parties (e.g. the greens). It's essentially the same issue Biden is facing - the youth vote don't like him and are not best pleased at having to hold their nose to prevent trump again.

[Sampson]

7 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

Honestly I think you underestimate the extent to which millennials, and particularly gen Z, despise Starmer and labour (starmers approval rating is -17% among 18-24 year olds). Sure, they'll win this time however their voting coalition is a combination of young people who hate them but hate the tories more, and regular tory voters who don't like Sunak. The latter will go back to the tories under a new leader, the former will likely split between staying labour to keep the tories out, or go to third parties (e.g. the greens). It's essentially the same issue Biden is facing - the youth vote don't like him and are not best pleased at having to hold their nose to prevent trump again.

But the millennials and gen z aren’t going to switch to Tories that’s the point, there’s been several pieces of published research showing unusual it is that neither generation is becoming more conservative as they grow older as the old adage suggests, mainly because they can’t afford housing or to have children.

 

In fact millennials seem to be getting less small c conservative as they grow older often citing Brexit and no housing or opportunity as reasons. demographic polls and research strongly suggests they won’t switch back to the Tories after 1 election, they’d only switch to Lib Dem’s or greens and given how almost 80% of gen z and millennials say they’d vote to rejoin the eu if polled I think the promise of a 2nd referendum would easily sway them back if support is faltering. 

Edited 27 May by Sampson

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

Honestly I think you underestimate the extent to which millennials, and particularly gen Z, despise Starmer and labour (starmers approval rating is -17% among 18-24 year olds). Sure, they'll win this time however their voting coalition is a combination of young people who hate them but hate the tories more, and regular tory voters who don't like Sunak. The latter will go back to the tories under a new leader, the former will likely split between staying labour to keep the tories out, or go to third parties (e.g. the greens). It's essentially the same issue Biden is facing - the youth vote don't like him and are not best pleased at having to hold their nose to prevent trump again.

But I would like to think that they know the importance of having to hold their noses in this case, even though the choice appears shitty.

[foxes1988]

2 hours ago, BKLFox said:

He’s said he won’t scrap Uni fees so the young will still start life in debt.

He’s sugar coated it by saying it’s between this or putting it into the NHS so will be over looked of course.

Id much rather he said I’ll look into why the NHS spu4ks so much money per day and address that 1st rather than just keep putting good money on top of bad.

Because the answer answer is already known. Healthcare is expensive and socialist healthcare is generally the most efficient way of funding it. We still put in much less per capita then USA, France, Germany etc

[The Doctor]

17 minutes ago, Sampson said:

But the millennials and gen z aren’t going to switch to Tories that’s the point, there’s been several pieces of published research showing unusual it is that neither generation is becoming more conservative as they grow older as the old adage suggests, mainly because they can’t afford housing or to have children.

 

In fact millennials seem to be getting less small c conservative as they grow older often citing Brexit and no housing or opportunity as reasons. demographic polls and research strongly suggests they won’t switch back to the Tories after 1 election, they’d only switch to Lib Dem’s or greens and given how almost 80% of gen z and millennials say they’d vote to rejoin the eu if polled I think the promise of a 2nd referendum would easily sway them back if support is faltering. 

they won't, it'll be the "always voted Tory but can't stand Sunak" types that flock to a Tory party under whatever ghoul survives this next election, the youth will go green/lib dem depending on who replaces Davey and that's the issue that starmer will face and why he'll be a one term PM - there's no long lasting appeal in "at least im not him" and that's literally all that Keir Hardly is standing on

[Sampson]

2 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

they won't, it'll be the "always voted Tory but can't stand Sunak" types that flock to a Tory party under whatever ghoul survives this next election, the youth will go green/lib dem depending on who replaces Davey and that's the issue that starmer will face and why he'll be a one term PM - there's no long lasting appeal in "at least im not him" and that's literally all that Keir Hardly is standing on

And as I said, he has the clear option open to him to stand in 2029 on a pro-EU platform (which is one thing you can’t accuse him of not standing for as he’s very clearly always believed we should be in the eu) and that’s why I don’t think he will be a one term PM nor will the Tories nor anyone else get anywhere near power in 2029.

 

I’m not a massive Starmer fan either, but I just can’t see anyone challenging Labour’s power until the 2039 election with the demographic set up of the country, the Tories are done for a generation realistically.

[Daggers]

 

[izzymuzzet]

50 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

Honestly I think you underestimate the extent to which millennials, and particularly gen Z, despise Starmer and labour (starmers approval rating is -17% among 18-24 year olds). 

Starmer is not popular - albeit he is still the most popular party leader. 
 

It’s just not true to say Labour isn’t popular amongst 18-24 year olds. They’re polling the same as they did in the 2019 election amongst that age group. They are very unpopular amongst a small group of very online young people, but the polling suggests that group is not representative of your average teen/early 20-something. 
 

Obviously it’s likely that if elected they will become less popular with all demographics, because that’s what happens to every government. 

 

[Daggers]

8 minutes ago, izzymuzzet said:

Starmer is not popular - albeit he is still the most popular party leader. 
 

It’s just not true to say Labour isn’t popular amongst 18-24 year olds. They’re polling the same as they did in the 2019 election amongst that age group. They are very unpopular amongst a small group of very online young people, but the polling suggests that group is not representative of your average teen/early 20-something. 
 

Obviously it’s likely that if elected they will become less popular with all demographics, because that’s what happens to every government. 

 

Those graphs are enough to make me develop a fondness for Harold Shipman. 

[Zear0]

30 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Those graphs are enough to make me develop a fondness for Harold Shipman. 

Bloody Forest fan.

[Tuna]

2 hours ago, MattFox said:

GB news

They are no friends of the Conservative party

[Tuna]

I'm interested to see if the changes of boundary result in different results

 

Grantham & Stamford now Grantham & Bourne

 

Melton & Rutland now Stamford & Rutland / Melton & Syston

 

All three safe Conservative seats in the past, Ed Argar is running for Melton & Syston and Alicia Kearns is running for Stamford & Rutland

[Lionator]

4 minutes ago, Tuna said:

I'm interested to see if the changes of boundary result in different results

 

Grantham & Stamford now Grantham & Bourne

 

Melton & Rutland now Stamford & Rutland / Melton & Syston

 

All three safe Conservative seats in the past, Ed Argar is running for Melton & Syston and Alicia Kearns is running for Stamford & Rutland

Melton & Syston could be a close one, I know Sileby is also in that seat so Labour would fancy it.

 

Kearns winning would be good, I'd preferbly like to see her remaining in the Tory party and maybe even putting her head forward for leader. She's been bang on with the Gaza conflict since October 7th even when a lot of her colleagues were calling her out for being a 'hamas sympathiser'. It tells me a lot about her political judgement.

[westernpark]

1 minute ago, Lionator said:

Melton & Syston could be a close one, I know Sileby is also in that seat so Labour would fancy it.

 

Kearns winning would be good, I'd preferbly like to see her remaining in the Tory party and maybe even putting her head forward for leader. She's been bang on with the Gaza conflict since October 7th even when a lot of her colleagues were calling her out for being a 'hamas sympathiser'. It tells me a lot about her political judgement.

Is the Israel/Hamas conflict the most salient issue for you? 

[urban.spaceman]

9 minutes ago, Tuna said:

I'm interested to see if the changes of boundary result in different results

 

Grantham & Stamford now Grantham & Bourne

 

Melton & Rutland now Stamford & Rutland / Melton & Syston

 

All three safe Conservative seats in the past, Ed Argar is running for Melton & Syston and Alicia Kearns is running for Stamford & Rutland

 

2 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Melton & Syston could be a close one, I know Sileby is also in that seat so Labour would fancy it.

 

Kearns winning would be good, I'd preferbly like to see her remaining in the Tory party and maybe even putting her head forward for leader. She's been bang on with the Gaza conflict since October 7th even when a lot of her colleagues were calling her out for being a 'hamas sympathiser'. It tells me a lot about her political judgement.

I think Melton and Syston is projected to become Labour on Electoral Calculus. Will check later. 

[urban.spaceman]

 

[Lionator]

10 minutes ago, westernpark said:

Is the Israel/Hamas conflict the most salient issue for you? 

No, housing is. But to me it says a lot about her political judgement rather than just towing a line which has led people with egg on their face.

[Daggers]

46 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

Brilliant. I was worried there wasn’t going to be any funny calamitous Tory news today. 😂

[Legend_in_blue]