Election prediction time

[Claridge]

11 hours ago, Facecloth said:

I don't get the point she's trying to make. "You'll have it so good under Labour that nobody will ever want to vote for us again" isn't the flex she thinks it is.

Think she is trying to say that I know you  really don't want Sunak, but you sure as well don't want Starmer and his pretend labour party either for very long.

[Sampson]

It’s funny how terrified the Tories are

 

 

[CosbehFox]

Was called project doom during Brexit 

[Dunge]

43 minutes ago, Sampson said:

It’s funny how terrified the Tories are

 

 

If Labour get in, there will be no more smell of freshly mown grass. Or cat pictures on the internet. Or Nottingham Forest losing. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

[Greg2607]

14 hours ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Agree with that but similar to my post above, how the hell did we get to that point? How do people get so entrenched. I’m reading this thread whilst face palming. People posting Twitter links to prove others wrong and designate them as stupid. Madness 

Lack of hope is the majority factor.  Take out the top 10% of earners from the statistics and the average wage in the UK is £24k.  

 

£2000 per month before tax.  

 

People struggle to build a life for themselves at that level of income. They can't afford homes, life is devoid of "luxuries".  

 

Based on ONS stats, 40% of the UK is living in deprivation.  FORTY PERCENT!!

 

Then, someone like Farage comes along and gives some simple rhetoric that everyone hooks into. 

 

None of this is a quick fix.  Labour or not, it can't be solved in a single parliament, even across two parliaments. 

 

The structure of our entire society needs to change and we need LONG TERM planning.  Something that governments of any colour fix to and continue to deliver around infrastructure, transport, industry, skills. 

 

If any business in the world changed what they did every 5 years, they would fail. It's impossible. 

 

BUT if you can build a society, where everyone benefits, where even the poorest are provided for, so they don't have to resort to crime to feed a family, then you may just about have a chance of changing the views of the disaffected when a wolf in sheeps clothing appears. 

[Sampson]

Still think the biggest problem facing both uk and most of the west is population ageing. We spend as much on the NHS as ever but it’s broken because our population is way older and so requires way more use of the NHS . We have way more 80+ year olds and way fewer 18-30 year olds than we did 30 years ago. And people aged 80+ cost the state tenfold more than those under 30 to support each in terms of both pensions and healthcare. 
 

The pension system was designed when people would live to 70 for a nice end to the live for 5 years or so, but now it’s quite common for people to collect their pension for 25-30 years while also needing more care and operations etc. 
 

I know it’s a very uncomfortable truth, which is why no politician will touch it with a barge pole and instead it’s way easier to blame immigrants, but the older population are unfortunately a much bigger problem to the state finances than immigrants and in fact the reason we need so many foreign workers in the health and care sectors are to deal with the continuously out of whack ratio of people of retirement age to people of tax paying age.

Edited 30 June by Sampson

[leicsmac]

6 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Still think the biggest problem facing both uk and most of the west is population ageing. We spend as much on the NHS as ever but it’s broken because our population is way older and so requires way more use of the NHS . We have way more 80+ year olds and way fewer 18-30 year olds than we did 30 years ago. And people aged 80+ cost the state tenfold more than those under 30 to support each in terms of both pensions and healthcare. 
 

The pension system was designed when people would live to 70 for a nice end to the live for 5 years or so, but now it’s quite common for people to collect their pension for 25-30 years while also needing more care and operations etc. 
 

I know it’s a very uncomfortable truth, which is why no politician will touch it with a barge poll and instead it’s way easier to blame immigrants, but the older population are unfortunately a much bigger problem to the state finances that immigrants and in fact the reason we need so many foreign workers in the health and care sectors are to deal with the continuously out of whack ratio of people of retirement age to people of tax paying age.

Yep, there's a demographic crisis on the horizon and closing fast.

 

Unfortunately, even though it needs to be addressed, there are no good options to deal with that - the best involves paying out a fair chunk to maintain things as they are while population demographics stabilise (however long that may take), the worst involves a massive population crash across the developed world.

[jgtuk]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Yep, there's a demographic crisis on the horizon and closing fast.

 

Unfortunately, even though it needs to be addressed, there are no good options to deal with that - the best involves paying out a fair chunk to maintain things as they are while population demographics stabilise (however long that may take), the worst involves a massive population crash across the developed world.

Incoming virus 

[jgtuk]

6 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Yep, there's a demographic crisis on the horizon and closing fast.

 

Unfortunately, even though it needs to be addressed, there are no good options to deal with that - the best involves paying out a fair chunk to maintain things as they are while population demographics stabilise (however long that may take), the worst involves a massive population crash across the developed world.

How does this pair up with the falling birth rates scenario I’ve been reading about lately? 
Seems to be developed nations potentially having a future crisis. 

[leicsmac]

12 minutes ago, jgtuk said:

How does this pair up with the falling birth rates scenario I’ve been reading about lately? 
Seems to be developed nations potentially having a future crisis. 

It pairs well.

 

As per above though, this kind of crisis is in fact the best bad outcome. All others - whether trying to boost birth rates and so keep population rising across the world or whatever, will simply kick the can down the road and end much worse.

[Crinklyfox]

22 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Still think the biggest problem facing both uk and most of the west is population ageing. We spend as much on the NHS as ever but it’s broken because our population is way older and so requires way more use of the NHS . We have way more 80+ year olds and way fewer 18-30 year olds than we did 30 years ago. And people aged 80+ cost the state tenfold more than those under 30 to support each in terms of both pensions and healthcare. 
 

The pension system was designed when people would live to 70 for a nice end to the live for 5 years or so, but now it’s quite common for people to collect their pension for 25-30 years while also needing more care and operations etc. 
 

I know it’s a very uncomfortable truth, which is why no politician will touch it with a barge poll and instead it’s way easier to blame immigrants, but the older population are unfortunately a much bigger problem to the state finances that immigrants and in fact the reason we need so many foreign workers in the health and care sectors are to deal with the continuously out of whack ratio of people of retirement age to people of tax paying age.

As a fully paid up member of the problem age group, I agree that this is a nettle that hasn't been grasped, but should be

 

My wife worked in the NHS for 40 years and has seen the decline first hand.  Life expectancies have increased putting a larger strain on the NHS.  I recently waited 18 months for a procedure that my wife believed would have been carried out within a few months in the seventies.  There are millions on NHS waiting lists, many of whom are in pain or suffering in other ways, some of whom have life-threatening conditions.  I don't find that acceptable in a civilised society.  Euthanasia isn't a big vote winner so if we eliminate that increased funding to the NHS is the only way to go (and I'm a taxpayer, even in retirement so increases in taxes affect me).  

 

The current system is that if you can afford it, you can have good healthcare, the private sector appears to be booming.  But it's out of reach to many of the elderly.  Private health care schemes are effectively insurance policies and the providers of such schemes don't want to cover you if you're already ill or are elderly and therefore have a greatly increased chance of requiring healthcare.  And health, which can be taken for granted by the young, becomes one of the most important things in life as it declines.  

 

There is a global market in healthcare and I have no issue with recruitment of competent individuals from overseas to support the NHS.  Those casing the money would go to the USA or Canada as a first option as their doctor salaries are on average more than double those in the UK; but on the other hand I believe that average salaries for doctors in Europe are only higher than the UK in Switzerland and Germany; and in parts of Asia salaries may only be 20% of those in the UK.  Some may not like the idea of large scale recruitment from overseas, but I consider our health care professionals to be under too much pressure and see that as one way of easing the problem.  

[UniFox21]

47 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Still think the biggest problem facing both uk and most of the west is population ageing. We spend as much on the NHS as ever but it’s broken because our population is way older and so requires way more use of the NHS . We have way more 80+ year olds and way fewer 18-30 year olds than we did 30 years ago. And people aged 80+ cost the state tenfold more than those under 30 to support each in terms of both pensions and healthcare. 
 

The pension system was designed when people would live to 70 for a nice end to the live for 5 years or so, but now it’s quite common for people to collect their pension for 25-30 years while also needing more care and operations etc. 
 

I know it’s a very uncomfortable truth, which is why no politician will touch it with a barge poll and instead it’s way easier to blame immigrants, but the older population are unfortunately a much bigger problem to the state finances that immigrants and in fact the reason we need so many foreign workers in the health and care sectors are to deal with the continuously out of whack ratio of people of retirement age to people of tax paying age.

For definite.

We spend so much of the NHS, yet so much of the system is in a poor state. GP's and social care is in disarray, so everything pours into your hospitals. And that's just going to continue to increase 

 

The system doesn't just need money, it needs a reshape, and public confidence needs rebuilding. 

[HighPeakFox]

The irony is that killing off the old became policy under Johnson - the very voter base they should have been able to rely on. 

[Sampson]

9 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

The irony is that killing off the old became policy under Johnson - the very voter base they should have been able to rely on. 

This is another huge issue with population ageing too and why it’s not just a test on public finances and the economy but also democracy.

 

When the average voting age rises and rises and people understandably don’t want to be told your pension you’ve worked hard for all your life and they live in and are told all your life you have the right too is costing the country too much and needs taxing or reducing it’s understandable that people would feel miffed and will not vote for that party. Which leaves politicians in a catch-22 with regards to population ageing.

 

We saw the riots that happened in France just because of raising the retirement age by 2 years.

 

You can say “older people should work longer” as well but in reality it’s harder and harder for people over 70 to either be physically capable of so much labour or of being actually able to find a job as many companies just won’t hire older people.

Edited 30 June by Sampson

[urban.spaceman]

3 hours ago, Sampson said:

It’s funny how terrified the Tories are

 

 

The importance of punctuation.

 

”Labour is coming; after all, that gives pleasure.”

[leicsmac]

Reform continue to make up ground.

 

I hope that I'm wrong about this, but there will be a flashpoint soon and next time round, like in France now, they will either have 0 seats or enough seats to set policy. There will be no middle ground.

[grobyfox1990]

2 hours ago, Greg2607 said:

Lack of hope is the majority factor.  Take out the top 10% of earners from the statistics and the average wage in the UK is £24k.  

 

£2000 per month before tax.  

 

People struggle to build a life for themselves at that level of income. They can't afford homes, life is devoid of "luxuries".  

 

Based on ONS stats, 40% of the UK is living in deprivation.  FORTY PERCENT!!

 

Then, someone like Farage comes along and gives some simple rhetoric that everyone hooks into. 

 

None of this is a quick fix.  Labour or not, it can't be solved in a single parliament, even across two parliaments. 

 

The structure of our entire society needs to change and we need LONG TERM planning.  Something that governments of any colour fix to and continue to deliver around infrastructure, transport, industry, skills. 

 

If any business in the world changed what they did every 5 years, they would fail. It's impossible. 

 

BUT if you can build a society, where everyone benefits, where even the poorest are provided for, so they don't have to resort to crime to feed a family, then you may just about have a chance of changing the views of the disaffected when a wolf in sheeps clothing appears. 

Totally agree, inequality in the uk is rising rapidly and nobody can really be arsed to do anything about it until we reach SE Asia/India levels of a tiny ruling HNW class, and a poor 99%.

In the meantime, people to continue to fund their lifestyles on credit because they ‘deserve’ that gig, meal out, useless Xmas present etc etc. The rich renty class get richer.

But going back to my original point. I think it’s a quirk of Britain that there’ll be plenty in the 40% class who think they’re so much smarter than reform voters. Dudes on £35k a year living in a two up two down suburban semi who’ve sat back and watched their lifestyle dwindle away for the last two years and still think they’re clever. 

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Totally agree, inequality in the uk is rising rapidly and nobody can really be arsed to do anything about it until we reach SE Asia/India levels of a tiny ruling HNW class, and a poor 99%.

In the meantime, people to continue to fund their lifestyles on credit because they ‘deserve’ that gig, meal out, useless Xmas present etc etc. The rich renty class get richer.

But going back to my original point. I think it’s a quirk of Britain that there’ll be plenty in the 40% class who think they’re so much smarter than reform voters. Dudes on £35k a year living in a two up two down suburban semi who’ve sat back and watched their lifestyle dwindle away for the last two years and still think they’re clever. 

Fair point, but I would also say that knowing Reform will only deepen inequality rather than thinking they'll reduce it is smarter in of itself. That's reasonably easy policy dissemination.

[Greg2607]

The NHS problem is also impacted by the use of agency staff at a much higher rate than the permanent staff.  It's sold as "flexibility" for the bank staff. 

 

You could cut out that cost overnight in two ways.  Either, nationalise the provision of agency staff and pay them the same hourly rate as an employed member of staff (the staff still have the flexibility they apparently want) OR provide flexible contracts within the NHS work force.. both do the same thing, which is cutting out the profiteering from the middle man. 

 

The "spare" money then goes to improving front line services. 

 

We are spending HUGE amounts of money to privatised elements providing (selling) services into the NHS at a higher cost than doing the same thing directly. 

 

It's bonkers. 

[Greg2607]

8 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Totally agree, inequality in the uk is rising rapidly and nobody can really be arsed to do anything about it until we reach SE Asia/India levels of a tiny ruling HNW class, and a poor 99%.

In the meantime, people to continue to fund their lifestyles on credit because they ‘deserve’ that gig, meal out, useless Xmas present etc etc. The rich renty class get richer.

But going back to my original point. I think it’s a quirk of Britain that there’ll be plenty in the 40% class who think they’re so much smarter than reform voters. Dudes on £35k a year living in a two up two down suburban semi who’ve sat back and watched their lifestyle dwindle away for the last two years and still think they’re clever. 

I'm in a fortunate position that I'm debt free (other than my mortgage) and don't own a credit card.... But honestly, if life was so bleak that the only bit of enjoyment was that gig, or meeting up with family for a meal... I can honestly see why people put it on credit. (And yes, I realise that's a vicious circle)

 

We all need to have enjoyment in our lives... It's why we need a society that works for 99% of us and have the state support the 1% that it doesn't..... 

 

Unfortunately, we've built a society that caters for 1% and the other 99% need propping up. 

[Brizzle Fox]

3 hours ago, Sampson said:

It’s funny how terrified the Tories are

 

 

I'd suggest its a bit more than that.

 

It's the thought that with Labour potentially getting such a large majority, that the traditional Tory press is seeing its influence disappearing in front of its own eyes.

 

No coincidence this has led to the slew of ridiculous apocalyptic leaders splashed across all these rags' front pages this morning.

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

The importance of punctuation.

 

”Labour is coming; after all, that gives pleasure.”

Someone should do the meme to Lionel Hutz’ business card 

Edited 30 June by Sampson

[ealingfox]

2 hours ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Totally agree, inequality in the uk is rising rapidly and nobody can really be arsed to do anything about it until we reach SE Asia/India levels of a tiny ruling HNW class, and a poor 99%.

In the meantime, people to continue to fund their lifestyles on credit because they ‘deserve’ that gig, meal out, useless Xmas present etc etc. The rich renty class get richer.

But going back to my original point. I think it’s a quirk of Britain that there’ll be plenty in the 40% class who think they’re so much smarter than reform voters. Dudes on £35k a year living in a two up two down suburban semi who’ve sat back and watched their lifestyle dwindle away for the last two years and still think they’re clever. 

 

Genuinely have no idea what this is supposed to mean? 35k a year doesn't put you in the 40% tax bracket, not even close.

[Facecloth]

2 hours ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Totally agree, inequality in the uk is rising rapidly and nobody can really be arsed to do anything about it until we reach SE Asia/India levels of a tiny ruling HNW class, and a poor 99%.

In the meantime, people to continue to fund their lifestyles on credit because they ‘deserve’ that gig, meal out, useless Xmas present etc etc. The rich renty class get richer.

But going back to my original point. I think it’s a quirk of Britain that there’ll be plenty in the 40% class who think they’re so much smarter than reform voters. Dudes on £35k a year living in a two up two down suburban semi who’ve sat back and watched their lifestyle dwindle away for the last two years and still think they’re clever. 

You have to earn £50,271 to being paying 40% on anything you earn.

[grobyfox1990]

9 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

 

Genuinely have no idea what this is supposed to mean? 35k a year doesn't put you in the 40% tax bracket, not even close.

 

2 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

You have to earn £50,271 to being paying 40% on anything you earn.

Read the post i am replying too