Election prediction time

[Torquay Gunner]

You can say “older people should work longer” as well but in reality it’s harder and harder for people over 70 to either be physically capable of so much labour or of being actually able to find a job as many companies just won’t hire older people.

Edited 3 hours ago by Sampson
 

I agree with this, sadly I’ve known lots of people that have never even made it to the original pension age of 65.   To my mind 67 is too old to expect to work full time in the fast paced and modern world we live in today.  Of course there will many people who are happy to continue to work beyond 67 and many people that for financial reasons feel they have no choice, but to do so.  I don’t know how governments should deal with the tax angle, but pushing the working age ever higher is surely not the answer. 

[Sampson]

5 minutes ago, Torquay Gunner said:

 

You can say “older people should work longer” as well but in reality it’s harder and harder for people over 70 to either be physically capable of so much labour or of being actually able to find a job as many companies just won’t hire older people.

Edited 3 hours ago by Sampson
 

I agree with this, sadly I’ve known lots of people that have never even made it to the original pension age of 65.   To my mind 67 is too old to expect to work full time in the fast paced and modern world we live in today.  Of course there will many people who are happy to continue to work beyond 67 and many people that for financial reasons feel they have no choice, but to do so.  I don’t know how governments should deal with the tax angle, but pushing the working age ever higher is surely not the answer. 

Reality is I think you’d be just moving a hell of a lot of people from one benefit to another from their pension to job seekers or disability benefits. That’s why it’s such a difficult issue. 

[Greg2607]

5 minutes ago, Torquay Gunner said:

 

You can say “older people should work longer” as well but in reality it’s harder and harder for people over 70 to either be physically capable of so much labour or of being actually able to find a job as many companies just won’t hire older people.

Edited 3 hours ago by Sampson
 

I agree with this, sadly I’ve known lots of people that have never even made it to the original pension age of 65.   To my mind 67 is too old to expect to work full time in the fast paced and modern world we live in today.  Of course there will many people who are happy to continue to work beyond 67 and many people that for financial reasons feel they have no choice, but to do so.  I don’t know how governments should deal with the tax angle, but pushing the working age ever higher is surely not the answer. 

Whisper it.... But the solution is...........immigration. 

 

Unfortunately we have catastrophically failed to provide the infrastructure in this country over many decades to accommodate the size of population we will need for the next 30-40 years.....

 

I can virtually guarantee that in the short middle distance, we will be actively incentivising people to come and live and work here. The whole western world will.  

 

However, I suspect by that point China and the UAE will be much more attractive propositions than we are. 

[urban.spaceman]

On 29/06/2024 at 11:52, The Doctor said:

no-one has seen what labour are hoping to achieve in the long term though!

I mentioned the other day that people should go and watch Starmer's first conference speech during lockdown. Go and watch any other speech he's done. He has some pretty clear and consistent ambitions but can only react to the immediate skip fire he's about to inherit. 

On 29/06/2024 at 11:52, The Doctor said:

they've categorically ruled out lifting children out of poverty

Not true.

On 29/06/2024 at 11:52, The Doctor said:

of shoring up workers rights

Not true.

On 29/06/2024 at 11:52, The Doctor said:

of reversing the destruction of the NHS

Not true.

On 29/06/2024 at 11:52, The Doctor said:

they have made it clear that they don't have objections to what the Tories have done, only the pigs ear they've made of enacting it

Not even untrue, these are just downright lies. 

On 29/06/2024 at 11:52, The Doctor said:

they are telling you who they are and only fools pretend that they're just saying it to get elected.

That's your opinion and you're totally welcome to it. I profoundly disagree, and believe from what I have seen of Starmer's leadership and ambitions for power that we are going to see a transformative Labour government over the next 10 years.

[StanSP]

 

 

 

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, Greg2607 said:

Whisper it.... But the solution is...........immigration. 

 

Unfortunately we have catastrophically failed to provide the infrastructure in this country over many decades to accommodate the size of population we will need for the next 30-40 years.....

 

I can virtually guarantee that in the short middle distance, we will be actively incentivising people to come and live and work here. The whole western world will.  

 

However, I suspect by that point China and the UAE will be much more attractive propositions than we are. 

For 2-3 generations absolutely. Immigration is the medium term solution, no question.

 

The problem is that within 2-3 generations immigrants adapt to the low birth rates of their new nation and as many developing nations gets richer the pull of economic emigration goes down. 
 

You’d kind of need to keep countries, especially African countries poor to keep the steady stream of immigration to keep it being the long term solution and that’s kind of immoral.

 

Kurgestadt did a good video on population ageing btw for people who want an understandable overview about why it’s one of the 2 biggest issues humanity face this century along with climate change

 

 

Also one reason why our current 2 child benefit cap is so baffling and counter intuitive when we need to be trying to get people to have more than 2 children. 

Edited 30 June by Sampson

[kenny]

2 hours ago, Greg2607 said:

Whisper it.... But the solution is...........immigration. 

 

Unfortunately we have catastrophically failed to provide the infrastructure in this country over many decades to accommodate the size of population we will need for the next 30-40 years.....

 

I can virtually guarantee that in the short middle distance, we will be actively incentivising people to come and live and work here. The whole western world will.  

 

However, I suspect by that point China and the UAE will be much more attractive propositions than we are. 

The solution is AI, robotics and automation not importing low paid staff from abroad.

[Greg2607]

1 minute ago, kenny said:

The solution is AI, robotics and automation not importing low paid staff from abroad.

You do realise how state pensions are paid right??? 

[kenny]

2 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

You do realise how state pensions are paid right??? 

Taxes?

 

So if less people achieve more they will be paid more. I assume they therefore pay more tax.

 

Importing cheap labour has encouraged businesses to fail to invest in future technologies that improve output.

[Sampson]

5 minutes ago, kenny said:

The solution is AI, robotics and automation not importing low paid staff from abroad.

Uhhh… what? Are we even having the same conversation. How does that help with population ageing? That just reduces the number of jobs and income from taxes even more. 

[kenny]

Just now, Sampson said:

Uhhh… what? Are we even having the same conversation. How does that help with population ageing? That just reduces the number of jobs and income from taxes even more. 

We already have more jobs than people and it will get worse not better.

 

If businesses achieve more with less staff on the payroll then wages will rise as the only work being done by humans will be work not possible by machines. There will be more specialist jobs in maintaining machines rather than low skilled labour it relies upon.

 

We have an opportunity as a country to embrace the future as opposed to mining other countries for cheap staff to prop us up.

[Greg2607]

1 minute ago, kenny said:

Taxes?

 

So if less people achieve more they will be paid more. I assume they therefore pay more tax.

 

Importing cheap labour has encouraged businesses to fail to invest in future technologies that improve output.

There are currently 10 working people for every pensioner.  Their tax pays towards the state pension (amongst other things)

 

Within 20 years there will be 4 working people for every pensioner....

 

In the last 15 years wages have increased £16 a week. In total. 

 

But you are suggesting AI will result in 40% of the current workforce producing 100% of the output.  

 

It's not going to happen. 

[Sampson]

4 minutes ago, kenny said:

We already have more jobs than people and it will get worse not better.

 

If businesses achieve more with less staff on the payroll then wages will rise as the only work being done by humans will be work not possible by machines. There will be more specialist jobs in maintaining machines rather than low skilled labour it relies upon.

 

We have an opportunity as a country to embrace the future as opposed to mining other countries for cheap staff to prop us up.

I’m confused about your utopia. How exactly do we turn everyone into AI and computer programming specialists which probably requires everyone to have a pHD in mathematics?
 

All that reads like to me is a country where we have mass unemployment and so the burden on the state becomes even more unsustainable as only a few have the skills needed to works. 

Edited 30 June by Sampson

[kenny]

1 minute ago, Greg2607 said:

There are currently 10 working people for every pensioner.  Their tax pays towards the state pension (amongst other things)

 

Within 20 years there will be 4 working people for every pensioner....

 

In the last 15 years wages have increased £16 a week. In total. 

 

But you are suggesting AI will result in 40% of the current workforce producing 100% of the output.  

 

It's not going to happen. 

It won't, but it should.

 

We will probably give in and continue to import labour.

 

I'm currently driving our business to improve its automations with a view to protecting it from staff shortages that we are facing.

 

Thus far, we are invoicing 30% more and have reduced our house by 10% in doing it. The plan is to work towards a 4 day week with the staff being paid for doing so.

[Greg2607]

1 minute ago, kenny said:

It won't, but it should.

 

We will probably give in and continue to import labour.

 

I'm currently driving our business to improve its automations with a view to protecting it from staff shortages that we are facing.

 

Thus far, we are invoicing 30% more and have reduced our house by 10% in doing it. The plan is to work towards a 4 day week with the staff being paid for doing so.

Yeah but based on your above logic, everyone would be doing 2 days a week and delivering 100% of your output.  

[kenny]

1 minute ago, Sampson said:

I’m confused about your utopia. How exactly do we turn everyone into specialists? All that reads like to me is a country where we have mass unemployment and do the burden on the state becomes even more unsustainable as only a few have the skills needed to works. 

I have an example?

 

A roof tile company (very local) has an automated machine to produce flat tiles. This machine produces the same number of tiles that 20 staff used to. It now has 3 maintenance technicians instead that looks after it following training.

 

In another room, they still make the ridge tiles using the traditional method and 6 chaps produce 10% of the number and are paid less. They aren't last investing in the ridge tile machine and the 6 guys are being retrained and will earn more doing so.

 

As with all businesses, they struggle for staff and the average age is increasing.

[kenny]

1 minute ago, Greg2607 said:

Yeah but based on your above logic, everyone would be doing 2 days a week and delivering 100% of your output.  

Indeed. I want 4 days and 200% though.

[leicsmac]

Automation would be an ideal of the future, but if it isn't accompanied by UBI then you're asking for dystopia, not utopia.

[FoxyPV]

9 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

There are currently 10 working people for every pensioner.  Their tax pays towards the state pension (amongst other things)

 

Within 20 years there will be 4 working people for every pensioner....

 

In the last 15 years wages have increased £16 a week. In total. 

 

But you are suggesting AI will result in 40% of the current workforce producing 100% of the output.  

 

It's not going to happen. 

The Tories tried to put a serious dent in this by destroying the NHS and their response to covid

[urban.spaceman]

 

 

[Daggers]

39 minutes ago, kenny said:

We already have more jobs than people and it will get worse not better.

 

 

Volume ≠ quality/appropriate positions

 

But then you probably know that

[kenny]

6 minutes ago, Daggers said:

 

Volume ≠ quality/appropriate positions

 

But then you probably know that

I do.

 

We are short of labour at all job/skill levels.

[Robo61]

38 minutes ago, kenny said:

I do.

 

We are short of labour at all job/skill levels.

In Social Care we have a shortish of labour and low wages. How do you see AI solving that?

[kenny]

10 minutes ago, Robo61 said:

In Social Care we have a shortish of labour and low wages. How do you see AI solving that?

I'm not an AI expert.

 

However, I would look at the jobs in a care home that can be automated such as cleaning and cooking.

 

Cleaning in particular is already automated at home but businesses are still paying people to hoover and clean floors.

 

Your point is very valid in that the ability to care and provide social support cannot be replicated by machine. So these jobs should be considered as being 'skilled' and will be so once the manual elements are done by machines. 

[Daggers]

1 hour ago, kenny said:

I do.

 

We are short of labour at all job/skill levels.

Employ graduates on graduate salaries do you?

 

Just because you can’t fill social care roles doesn’t mean there are a wealth of opportunities for physicists or psychologists. 
 

Your experience does not equal current reality.