Election prediction time

[Zear0]

14 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

 

Not 'serious' enough to have his text box filled in red though. 

[The Doctor]

3 hours ago, izzymuzzet said:

Starmer is not popular - albeit he is still the most popular party leader. 
 

It’s just not true to say Labour isn’t popular amongst 18-24 year olds. They’re polling the same as they did in the 2019 election amongst that age group. They are very unpopular amongst a small group of very online young people, but the polling suggests that group is not representative of your average teen/early 20-something. 
 

Obviously it’s likely that if elected they will become less popular with all demographics, because that’s what happens to every government. 

 

this is the problem with voting intention polls - how much of that support for labour is "they're the only option to get the tories out" vs actual support for labour? like my experience as a 30 year old - I don't know a single person who actually likes starmer, which is reflected by his abysmal approval ratings (being in opposition while the government commits drawn out ritual suicide should be pretty damn easy). "I'm not rishi sunak" will work for this election sure, but eventually you have to say who you are, and starmer has nothing going for him. 

[urban.spaceman]

 

 

[HighPeakFox]

9 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

 starmer has nothing going for him. 

He might not be wildly popular, but this simply is not true.

[The Doctor]

2 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

He might not be wildly popular, but this simply is not true.

what does he offer then? he's abandoned every single one of his pledges made thus far and he's less than a week into the campaign and already pissed off the unions:

 

 

 

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

what does he offer then? he's abandoned every single one of his pledges made thus far and he's less than a week into the campaign and already pissed off the unions:

 

 

 

A climate plan that actually takes the issue vaguely seriously, but then I'm happy to be proven wrong there.

[HighPeakFox]

Just now, The Doctor said:

what does he offer then? he's abandoned every single one of his pledges made thus far and he's less than a week into the campaign and already pissed off the unions:

 

 

 

You said 'he has nothing going for him', which I will answer.

 

Whatever his merits as a leader or mistakes made, this is a guy who has not come from privilege, has had a hugely (and deserved) successful career in law, and thus has proved competence at the highest level - there are many politicans of all colours who fall short in that alone. 

 

You are of course welcome to your dislike of him, but it reeks of absolutism (dogma), and the sort of thing the left does to itself time and again, turn on their own harder than they turn on the real enemy. They did it to Corbyn too, which I found equally despicable and depressing. But to say he offers 'nothing' is pure BS.

[SpacedX]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

A climate plan that actually takes the issue vaguely seriously, but then I'm happy to be proven wrong there.

Far from being happy, I would be very dismayed if you are. 

[Daggers]

1 hour ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

 

Why doesn’t everyone reply to him with a picture of an attractive pig?

[leicsmac]

40 minutes ago, SpacedX said:

Far from being happy, I would be very dismayed if you are. 

Well, happy from the point of view of learning a new matter of fact, rather than being happy at the corollary that no party of import in the UK has any idea of dealing with the biggest issue our species faces by far.

[Voll Blau]

Feel like I'm the only person in the country who actually finds Starmer's story both relatable to my family and inspiring.

 

Suspect I'm not, but those other people in the same boat probably aren't sat crying on the internet because he isn't absolutely perfect.

[Daggers]

buT HEs a ReaL fAn 

 

 

[Wymsey]

Just now, Daggers said:

buT HEs a ReaL fAn 

 

 

Bet he's probably a big cricket or rugby fan, but is scared to say that he hates the game in case he upsets the working class..

[The Doctor]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

A climate plan that actually takes the issue vaguely seriously, but then I'm happy to be proven wrong there.

then you'll be very sad to hear that labour are taking money from climate sceptic groups and dropped their green investment pledge: https://news.sky.com/story/rachel-reeves-accepted-donation-from-lord-donoughue-linked-to-climate-sceptic-group-gwpf-13072147

 

5 minutes ago, Daggers said:

buT HEs a ReaL fAn 

 

 

I mean with Brooks going off injured yesterday, Southampton are in need of a new right winger, and he'll be out of contract just as preseason starts. works for everyone, get it done Russell

[The Doctor]

1 hour ago, HighPeakFox said:

You said 'he has nothing going for him', which I will answer.

 

Whatever his merits as a leader or mistakes made, this is a guy who has not come from privilege, has had a hugely (and deserved) successful career in law, and thus has proved competence at the highest level - there are many politicans of all colours who fall short in that alone. 

 

You are of course welcome to your dislike of him, but it reeks of absolutism (dogma), and the sort of thing the left does to itself time and again, turn on their own harder than they turn on the real enemy. They did it to Corbyn too, which I found equally despicable and depressing. But to say he offers 'nothing' is pure BS.

sorry, should have been clearer, he offers nothing in a political sense, on account of how he keeps ditching and watering down every pledge and policy suggested. the whole "working class kid done well for themself" stuff is no more something he offers than something Thatcher offered and if it's the biggest selling point for someone to be PM we might as well go back to 2021 and have Marcus Rashford as prime minister again.

 

while the lefts favourite hobby might be infighting, it's not exactly relevant here because starmer isn't left wing? the positions he's taken in office thus far is that of a small c conservative, the sort that would have been welcomed in the coalition era when Cameron was doing the whole liberaliser, "big society" schtick. it's that the tories have, over the past 5 years, gone full throttle down the far-right pipeline that positions him as separate from the tories.

[leicsmac]

15 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

then you'll be very sad to hear that labour are taking money from climate sceptic groups and dropped their green investment pledge: https://news.sky.com/story/rachel-reeves-accepted-donation-from-lord-donoughue-linked-to-climate-sceptic-group-gwpf-13072147

 

...hence the use of the word "vaguely" in my OP.

 

But again, though, I know that "not as bad as the Tories" is not good enough for a lot of people and that's entirely their prerogative.

[HighPeakFox]

5 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

sorry, should have been clearer, he offers nothing in a political sense, on account of how he keeps ditching and watering down every pledge and policy suggested. the whole "working class kid done well for themself" stuff is no more something he offers than something Thatcher offered and if it's the biggest selling point for someone to be PM we might as well go back to 2021 and have Marcus Rashford as prime minister again.

 

while the lefts favourite hobby might be infighting, it's not exactly relevant here because starmer isn't left wing? the positions he's taken in office thus far is that of a small c conservative, the sort that would have been welcomed in the coalition era when Cameron was doing the whole liberaliser, "big society" schtick. it's that the tories have, over the past 5 years, gone full throttle down the far-right pipeline that positions him as separate from the tories.

I won't get into policies with you, because there's no point. Unfortunately, he has to compromise, probably more than most would like, & I'm willing to concede he probably has done as you describe and evidence. 

 

However, I believe that he's a man of decency, won't get mired in sleaze, and will do as best he can after 14 years of wanton destruction. For that, he's way more worthy than anything opposite. 

[urban.spaceman]

I’m guess capital punishment or CEEFAX relaunching. 
 

 

[Legend_in_blue]

1 minute ago, urban.spaceman said:

I’m guess capital punishment or CEEFAX relaunching. 
 

 

Sunak's suit jacket is back from the dry cleaners?  Or something more subtle like...

 

[ozleicester]

7 hours ago, Daggers said:

Why doesn’t everyone reply to him with a picture of an attractive pig?

Hmmm "attractive" pig... So you're saying there is a chance 🤣

[Jon the Hat]

7 hours ago, urban.spaceman said:

I’m guess capital punishment or CEEFAX relaunching. 
 

 

10.39, and TRIPLE LOCK PLUS because apparently pensioners are the ones struggling.

[Zear0]

3 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

10.39, and TRIPLE LOCK PLUS because apparently pensioners are the ones struggling.

A demographic also known for being active on social media at 2230.

[Jon the Hat]

11 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

A demographic also known for being active on social media at 2230.

If mine are anything to go by they hardly sleep and post shite at all times of day and night!

[HighPeakFox]

For the record, by most peoples' standards I'm probably pretty much a conservative socialist (ie not an extremist), and thus would prefer it if we weren't such a reactionary country with such a disgusting press, a populace where a significant number of people can't or won't think outside of hackneyed cliché and spin (especially about the nature of anything slightly left of the worryingly normalised echoes of 1930s Germany - cf Crush the Saboteurs, Enemies of the People etc) and a vastly compromised Labour Party. 

 

I avoid it all because I cannot change anything other than by being a good human being, or as good as I can manage at the time. None of the nonsense one hears about the left is new - it was standard fare amongst my peers at school in the 80s, and their parents too. The sadness for me is that so many have refused to learn or grow up, and so the same leftie-fearing childish gibber still dominates the mindset of many. 

 

So really, I have a lot of time for good people, like I take @The Doctor to be, because I believe him to be a high minded, ethical individual. I say this because I suspect we're on the same page in many ways, and I respect the stance, even if it's too fanciful to become a reality. But I should apologise for using the word dogma really, because idealism is a better word for someone - anyone - who wants things to be better, and hope is a far better, healthier guide to life than resigned cynicism. Sorry, @The Doctor, and my thanks for being good enough not to attack me personally. 

 

So I hope Labour win (because, under the current system, only they can) and change things for the better, and I also hope that the crooks that are fleeing before they're fully revealed, haven't holed the boat beyond repair. And I hope that the voting system then gets changed to something far more grown up, that stops politics being so partisan. 

 

I hope you all have a good day, whoever you choose to vote for. 

Edited 28 May by HighPeakFox

[Bazly]

Labour are a bolt on who will largely have SNP and Green support if climate shut down and generous funding is available. We know Sir Keir is 99% certain he knows what a woman is and is humbled enough to take the knee to foreign inspired activist groups. As for policies, those will maybe come to pass later.