Election prediction time

[The Doctor]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

Why are you taking Cruella's comments more seriously than Labour's? Why does Labour have a higher threshold of believability than someone who thinks homelessness is a lifestyle choice? Labour have so far ruled out the 2 child benefit cap, which I do believe is a mistake, but there are plenty of other methods to alleviate poverty that they have outlined in their manifesto. 

 

Sharon Graham has been a vocal critic of Starmer for years, which is her right. She was endorsing Labour as of a few weeks ago: 

Most 

 

Streeting has categorically, repeatedly ruled out more privatisation of the NHS. He has simply said he would utilise the private sector to bring down the record high waiting lists.
 

 

When did Labour "stand aside"? They've had no power in anything for 14 years. Especially after Corbyn left them with just 200 seats - it has been absolutely impossible for Starmer to actually stop the Tories doing anything. 

 

At this point I'll just have to take your word for it. I'll take my chances with Labour, vote for whoever you want.

I don't take Bravermans word for it, I'm highlighting that currently labour are being outflanked to the left by a woman who believes homelessness is a lifestyle choice, as they refuse to remove the benefit cap which keeps 300k children in poverty

 

I've already covered the issue with the notion that you can use the private sector to bring down waiting lists in the NHS (they're not different doctors, more private sector current detracts from the NHS).

 

so, "we don't have the seats to win that" justifies whipping to abstain on the extrajudicial rape bill? https://labourlist.org/2020/10/35-labour-mps-break-whip-to-oppose-spycops-bill-as-seven-frontbenchers-quit/

[Daggers]

Oh look, poor Andrea, she didn’t realise Banks, Tice and Fürage have a history of being lying shits.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-leadership-tory-bribery-election-b2571527.html

[Daggers]

Oh look, Fürage has another fascist to deal with. What a shocker.

 

https://novaramedia.com/2024/07/01/is-this-reform-uks-most-shameless-candidate/

[The Doctor]

 

 

not even in power yet and already aiming for his Neville Chamberlain moment 

[Sampson]

I do understand your concerns @The Doctor

 

I am a bit concerned Starmer is just another Macron. I.e. a former left wing politician who moved to the centre-right and killed his ideas on worker rights to get power under the guise of “keep the far right out” but then throughout his reign just moved the ovartan window further and further right until the far right get power anyway.

 

I’m also extremely cynical of this “look what Starmer said 4 years ago” line. I was quite excited by Starmer when he came in. I thought he’d improve worker rights, move us back towards the eu and change the voting system but he’s abandoned all that 

 

The one saving grace for me, is that the far right score well with the young in France and at least until now score well with the old in the UK, so demographics suggest their support will actually shrink in 5-10 years time. Largely because I think they’re seen as one of the main cultivators for Brexit in the UK which all polls show is deeply unpopular with under 40s, as many younger people feel like their opportunities have been robbed from them by the old because of.

Edited 1 July by Sampson

[Robo61]

1 hour ago, Daggers said:

Oh look, poor Andrea, she didn’t realise Banks, Tice and Fürage have a history of being lying shits.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-leadership-tory-bribery-election-b2571527.html

I've just heard Tice angrilly claim on LBC that the tories have been offering inducments to their candidates to defect, whilst all along doing the same in the other direction. Guess I shouldn't be surprised.

[The Doctor]

9 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I do understand your concerns @The Doctor

 

I am a bit concerned Starmer is just another Macron. I.e. a former left wing politician who moved to the centre-right and killed his ideas on worker rights to get power under the guise of “keep the far right out” but then throughout his reign just moved the ovartan window further and further right until the far right get power anyway.

 

I’m also extremely cynical of this “look what Starmer said 4 years ago” line. I was quite excited by Starmer when he came in. I thought he’d improve worker rights, move us back towards the eu and change the voting system but he’s abandoned all that 

 

The one saving grace for me, is that the far right score well with the young in France and at least until now score well with the old in the UK, so demographics suggest their support will actually shrink in 5-10 years time. Largely because I think they’re seen as being responsible for Brexit in the UK which many younger people feel like their opportunities have been robbed from them by the old because of.

I see your argument on demographics and I hope that is how it will play out, but I think there's an under appreciation of how alienated and radicalized teenage boys in particular have become (see Andrew Tates popularity), and generally history tells us that when neither side present any answers (and the centrists fight harder to stop the left than anything else) it's the far right that the disaffected then flock to 

[Sampson]

1 minute ago, The Doctor said:

I see your argument on demographics and I hope that is how it will play out, but I think there's an under appreciation of how alienated and radicalized teenage boys in particular have become (see Andrew Tates popularity), and generally history tells us that when neither side present any answers (and the centrists fight harder to stop the left than anything else) it's the far right that the disaffected then flock to 

I also share that concern, my main counteract would be polls show how deeply unpopular Brexit is with under 35s, I think to the point where around 80% of under 35s oppose it and want to rejoin the EU in polls and Farage and Reform at least will always be tarnished with that brush amongst the younger generations.
 

I’m not 100% convinced on the demographics argument though, but I stick to it because it gives me crumbs of comfort. 

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, The Doctor said:

I see your argument on demographics and I hope that is how it will play out, but I think there's an under appreciation of how alienated and radicalized teenage boys in particular have become (see Andrew Tates popularity), and generally history tells us that when neither side present any answers (and the centrists fight harder to stop the left than anything else) it's the far right that the disaffected then flock to 

Yeah.

 

And the problem then is that the next time the far right gains power in a lot of places, then the consequences will be much worse than even the last time it happened, what with both the advances in weaponry and an already more parlous ecosystem.

[Daggers]

22 minutes ago, Robo61 said:

I've just heard Tice angrilly claim on LBC that the tories have been offering inducments to their candidates to defect, whilst all along doing the same in the other direction. Guess I shouldn't be surprised.

 

[Dunge]

I thought that support for Reform was relatively uniform across all age ranges, albeit for different reasons. Conservative support meanwhile was definitely different by age range.

 

I’m happy to be shown wrong by polls though.

[leicsmac]

11 minutes ago, Dunge said:

I thought that support for Reform was relatively uniform across all age ranges, albeit for different reasons. Conservative support meanwhile was definitely different by age range.

 

I’m happy to be shown wrong by polls though.

I think this is broadly true from what I've read, which is worrying in of itself.

[Daggers]

Politics was just more serious back in the good old days

 

 

[StanSP]

2 hours ago, The Doctor said:

 

 

not even in power yet and already aiming for his Neville Chamberlain moment 

 

Do you expect any Prime Minister to refuse to 'work' with another in one of Europe's biggest countries? 

 

After all, we had the likes of previous Tory ministers 'working' with the likes of  Trump, no? 

 

Asked whether he would be willing to work with the NR if he wins the UK election on Thursday, he said: "I will work with any government in Europe and across the world if we are elected in to serve the country. For me, that's what serious government is about

[Daggers]

[urban.spaceman]

7 hours ago, The Doctor said:

I don't take Bravermans word for it, I'm highlighting that currently labour are being outflanked to the left by a woman who believes homelessness is a lifestyle choice, as they refuse to remove the benefit cap which keeps 300k children in poverty

They're not being "outflanked" by her - she was no longer a minister when she said that and could say whatever she wanted. As I said, there are other ways to tackle child poverty that Labour have chosen as a priority. Your original comment that she had more to say about more to say about child poverty than Labour remains completely untrue. Even Brown, who has publically criticised Labour for not removing the cap, has said they will be pioneers at slashing child poverty.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7 hours ago, The Doctor said:

 

I've already covered the issue with the notion that you can use the private sector to bring down waiting lists in the NHS (they're not different doctors, more private sector current detracts from the NHS).

 

so, "we don't have the seats to win that" justifies whipping to abstain on the extrajudicial rape bill? https://labourlist.org/2020/10/35-labour-mps-break-whip-to-oppose-spycops-bill-as-seven-frontbenchers-quit/

They were unable to prevent anything because the last leader delivered the worst result in 80 years. 

[urban.spaceman]

55 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Where's Liz Tru- oh.

[Tuna]

59 minutes ago, Daggers said:

I like the niche references - May holding some wheat

[Heathrow fox]

What an unusual situation we find ourselves in.Labour may well get a super majority based on one of the lowest turnouts in history.I have heard it mentioned that they might even get less votes nationally than Corbyn in 2019.Very unlikely but how hilarious would that be???
The difference between Blair 97 and Starmer 24 is night and day.It felt like the whole country was united in getting Blair into power.Such a huge feeling of positivity swept the nation on that glorious sunny Friday when he was confirmed the new PM.

The pressure is going to be on Starmer from the get go.No wonder he’s keeping his gob shut.

[The Doctor]

7 hours ago, urban.spaceman said:

They're not being "outflanked" by her - she was no longer a minister when she said that and could say whatever she wanted. As I said, there are other ways to tackle child poverty that Labour have chosen as a priority. Your original comment that she had more to say about more to say about child poverty than Labour remains completely untrue. Even Brown, who has publically criticised Labour for not removing the cap, has said they will be pioneers at slashing child poverty.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They were unable to prevent anything because the last leader delivered the worst result in 80 years. 

I'll ask again, does not being able to win the vote justify not even taking a symbolic stance against police being allowed to rape protesters?

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

I'll ask again, does not being able to win the vote justify not even taking a symbolic stance against police being allowed to rape protesters?

If I would be totally blunt about it, no.

 

This is about power, and principles without the power to apply them to make the world a better place mean as much as a fart in a Category 5 hurricane.

 

I know that's probably harsh, though.

[The Doctor]

9 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

If I would be totally blunt about it, no.

 

This is about power, and principles without the power to apply them to make the world a better place mean as much as a fart in a Category 5 hurricane.

 

I know that's probably harsh, though.

personally I would say if you abandon your principles because you don't have the power to easily enact them, then you don't have any principles in the first place.

[Daggers]

 

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

personally I would say if you abandon your principles because you don't have the power to easily enact them, then you don't have any principles in the first place.

And I would say that's equally valid because you see it so often too.

 

So being stuck between them in the limbo of actually being able to do something meaningful while not compromising yourself to do so makes finding a solution very, very hard.

[Tommy Fresh]