Election prediction time

[Tommy G]

8 hours ago, Heathrow fox said:

What an unusual situation we find ourselves in.Labour may well get a super majority based on one of the lowest turnouts in history.I have heard it mentioned that they might even get less votes nationally than Corbyn in 2019.Very unlikely but how hilarious would that be???
The difference between Blair 97 and Starmer 24 is night and day.It felt like the whole country was united in getting Blair into power.Such a huge feeling of positivity swept the nation on that glorious sunny Friday when he was confirmed the new PM.

The pressure is going to be on Starmer from the get go.No wonder he’s keeping his gob shut.

We are in a situation where people will vote Labour just to get the Tories out - I don't think every Labour voter is behind Starmer or any of the policies, in fact I think it's very little - which is why it's completely different to Blair, who was also 10x the ''leader'' Starmer is - the bloke won't even work beyond 6pm.   

[Greg2607]

7 minutes ago, Tommy G said:

We are in a situation where people will vote Labour just to get the Tories out - I don't think every Labour voter is behind Starmer or any of the policies, in fact I think it's very little - which is why it's completely different to Blair, who was also 10x the ''leader'' Starmer is - the bloke won't even work beyond 6pm.   

on one evening per week, which is part of his wife's religious beliefs. 

 

I don't think for one second that he is clocking off at 18:00 every night mate. you are better than that. 

[StanSP]

7 minutes ago, Tommy G said:

We are in a situation where people will vote Labour just to get the Tories out - I don't think every Labour voter is behind Starmer or any of the policies, in fact I think it's very little - which is why it's completely different to Blair, who was also 10x the ''leader'' Starmer is - the bloke won't even work beyond 6pm.   

I'm a strong believer in a healthy work-life balance too . 

[Tommy G]

Just now, Greg2607 said:

on one evening per week, which is part of his wife's religious beliefs. 

 

I don't think for one second that he is clocking off at 18:00 every night mate. you are better than that. 

Yeh I realise it's fridays but he will be the PM, there are plnty of things that run into 6pm on a friday and beyond that will need his attention, he can't just say sorry I'm not working?

[StanSP]

Just now, Tommy G said:

Yeh I realise it's fridays but he will be the PM, there are plnty of things that run into 6pm on a friday and beyond that will need his attention, he can't just say sorry I'm not working?

I don't think he actually will

 

[Tommy G]

1 minute ago, StanSP said:

I'm a strong believer in a healthy work-life balance too . 

With respect you aren't the Prime Minister  - for 4/5 years of your life you are expected to work round the clock 

[Bilo]

Just now, Tommy G said:

Yeh I realise it's fridays but he will be the PM, there are plnty of things that run into 6pm on a friday and beyond that will need his attention, he can't just say sorry I'm not working?

There is no way you think that he'll ask an aide telling him of a terrorist attack at 6:01pm on a Friday night to come back on Monday morning. Not a chance.

 

He was DPP for five years, an eminent lawyer for years before that, an MP for nearly a decade and LOTO for four years. I think he's pretty accustomed to working beyond 9-5. 

[izzymuzzet]

11 minutes ago, Tommy G said:

We are in a situation where people will vote Labour just to get the Tories out - I don't think every Labour voter is behind Starmer or any of the policies, in fact I think it's very little - which is why it's completely different to Blair, who was also 10x the ''leader'' Starmer is

I went back to read some of the pre-election coverage from 1997 recently. The consensus was that Blair would get a big majority despite little enthusiasm for him or his policies. He was very popular AFTER the 1997 election, particularly following Princess Diana's death that summer.

 

Starmer isn't particularly popular, but he's also not unpopular. His ratings are about the same as Boris Johnson's were before the 2019 election and a bit lower than Cameron in 2010.

 

"I don't think every Labour voter is behind Starmer or any of the policies" - this is the same in every election. In 2017 and 2019 I voted Labour despite disliking Jeremy Corbyn and lots of the policies he put forward. I did that because I disliked Labour less than the Conservatives. Every vote counts the same.

[inckley fox]

5 minutes ago, Tommy G said:

With respect you aren't the Prime Minister  - for 4/5 years of your life you are expected to work round the clock 

He said there were exceptions and clearly was talking about his life up to now, which hasn't been as PM. Even if he was, I'd fully expect any normal human to need to put some time aside if they're going to do their job properly. And if it's conditional, all the better.

 

There are so many serious issues at play, and all sorts of reasonable doubts as to whether Labour have the answers to them. I don't think the fact that someone occasionally has, up to now, tended to make sure they have a little time for their family should count against them in any way. It just detracts from any of the serious question marks.

[Bilo]

2 minutes ago, izzymuzzet said:

I went back to read some of the pre-election coverage from 1997 recently. The consensus was that Blair would get a big majority despite little enthusiasm for him or his policies. He was very popular AFTER the 1997 election, particularly following Princess Diana's death that summer.

 

Starmer isn't particularly popular, but he's also not unpopular. His ratings are about the same as Boris Johnson's were before the 2019 election and a bit lower than Cameron in 2010.

 

"I don't think every Labour voter is behind Starmer or any of the policies" - this is the same in every election. In 2017 and 2019 I voted Labour despite disliking Jeremy Corbyn and lots of the policies he put forward. I did that because I disliked Labour less than the Conservatives. Every vote counts the same.

The old adage goes that governments lose elections rather than the opposition winning them.

 

We don't tend to get excited over politicians in the sense of being desperate to see them in power; we tend to get much more excited about removing politicians we don't like than installing those we do.

 

There are two things that need to happen for this process. Firstly, the government has to be unpopular and inept enough for the electorate to want them out. Second, the alternative mustn't scare them and must represent a sensible, competent alternative. They don't have to be exciting, just not terrifying.

 

In 2017, only the first of those was in place. May's Tories were a disaster and the campaign was worse. Corbyn did not appeal to enough people as an alternative though, so couldn't win a majority however exciting, charismatic and inspiring his followers found him.

 

In 2024, the Tory government is more unpopular than any government in my lifetime. The alternative is a Starmer government that may not have people at Glastonbury singing his name, but also doesn't frighten anyone. I think most swing voters see him as a dull, boring but crucially competent, sensible and pragmatic politician who will restore sanity and stability to the country's politics. 

 

And after the past five years in particular, sanity, stability and competence are welcomed. It'll be nice to have a government whose ministers aren't on the front pages because they've taken a bung, shagged someone's wife or crashed the economy. 

 

Quite honestly, I think people would take boring. Boring doesn't double energy bills, crash the economy or leave thousands unemployed. 

[izzymuzzet]

2 minutes ago, Bilo said:

There are two things that need to happen for this process. Firstly, the government has to be unpopular and inept enough for the electorate to want them out. Second, the alternative mustn't scare them and must represent a sensible, competent alternative. They don't have to be exciting, just not terrifying.

 

Spot on. This is the third general election I've canvassed in and 'don't be scary' is the biggest advice I could give for any Labour candidate.

 

England is a conservative (small c) country. We might not like it but that's the reality, and you only win elections by addressing the electorate as it is rather than what you'd like it to be.

[grobyfox1990]

2 hours ago, Tommy G said:

We are in a situation where people will vote Labour just to get the Tories out - I don't think every Labour voter is behind Starmer or any of the policies, in fact I think it's very little - which is why it's completely different to Blair, who was also 10x the ''leader'' Starmer is - the bloke won't even work beyond 6pm.   

Starmer?! Where did you hear that from? That is nonsense, he's known to have very good stamina and an huge work ethic, throughout his entire career

[Tuna]

Absolute nutjobs

[Beechey]

Gotta say I've never been canvassed as much as I have by Labour in this election. They must be very confident of capturing Loughborough as they seem to be putting a lot of resources into it.

[Robo61]

Sunak in Hinckley yeaterday for the second time, seems like they are only trying to hang on to what would normally be safe seats. Even here its feeling very tight, just hope people are taking note of what the majority of tactical voting sites are recommending.

 

[Bilo]

55 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Starmer?! Where did you hear that from? That is nonsense, he's known to have very good stamina and an huge work ethic, throughout his entire career

I think even his detractors have conceded he's a massive grafter who's freakishly organised and driven to succeed.

 

It's also a bold line from a party whose last elected PM was famously the exact opposite. 

[CosbehFox]

1 hour ago, Tuna said:

Absolute nutjobs

Hilarious if there was any truth - being played at your own games 

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, Tuna said:

Absolute nutjobs

A. It's good to see the mask slipping more before the election than after.

 

B. How hypocritical is it for a party aligned in cause with and actively supportive of a man that essentially incited a revolt against the results of a free and fair election and still doesn't believe to be fair to complain about "anti-democratic measures"?

[ealingfox]

Conservatives will vote for Boris Johnson to be the Prime Minister and then tell you having a strong work ethic is a prerequisite for the job.

[Daggers]

4 hours ago, Tommy G said:

With respect you aren't the Prime Minister  - for 4/5 years of your life you are expected to work round the clock 

Please direct me to your post where you lambasted Theresa May for not being prepared to work for 4/5 years round the clock. 
 

 

[Dunge]

I think there’s a difference between clearing your diary and switching your phone off. Starmer’s just talking about clearing his diary for some family time.

 

Even so, it was a needless thing to say two days before an election.

[Daggers]

4 hours ago, Tommy G said:

With respect you aren't the Prime Minister  - for 4/5 years of your life you are expected to work round the clock 

See also…

 

 

[grobyfox1990]

1 hour ago, Bilo said:

I think even his detractors have conceded he's a massive grafter who's freakishly organised and driven to succeed.

 

It's also a bold line from a party whose last elected PM was famously the exact opposite. 

More interested in where the story has come from, very strange line to go down when you can attack Starmer on so much more. Especially on the day it's been announced he received £76k of freebies from donors

[grobyfox1990]

24 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Please direct me to your post where you lambasted Theresa May for not being prepared to work for 4/5 years round the clock. 
 

 

Christ, screenshotting articles from the Sun published in 2017. We really are no better than Americans 

[EnderbyFox]

1 hour ago, Robo61 said:

Sunak in Hinckley yeaterday for the second time, seems like they are only trying to hang on to what would normally be safe seats. Even here its feeling very tight, just hope people are taking note of what the majority of tactical voting sites are recommending.

 

 

Can see why...