Election prediction time

[Jon the Hat]

Its going to be an interesting rest of the week.

[Free Falling Foxes]

7 hours ago, Tuna said:

That's incredible, I still remembered 302 as the football news!

I used to 'watch' city away matches on Ceefax.

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Its going to be an interesting rest of the week.

It's going to be an interesting rest of the year, I reckon.

 

And there's a reason the Chinese use "interesting" as a curse rather than a benediction.

[Sampson]

I’m very interested in the demographic data following the election. The country has become so polarised by age since the 2016 referendum, in a way it never has before, that I’m wondering if the Tories have passed the point of no return.

[ozleicester]

15 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I wasn't aware that the newspapers ad space had anything to do with their editorial stance given that mostly it's open to the highest bidder, but fair enough.

There are VERY specific rules (certainly in AUstralia, but im pretty sure internationally) in regard to advertising space and political advertising during an election.

Rule one - (so as to be un biased   ) All advertising costs are at "rate card", so full price... like your hotel room that no one EVER pays the full rate... except for politicians. In the advertising world No-one ever pays full rate card rate in newspapers.

Rule two - there is (supposed to be) a very clear deliniation between editorial and advertising, with "Advertorials" banned during election campaigns.

[Jon the Hat]

2 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I’m very interested in the demographic data following the election. The country has become so polarised by age since the 2016 referendum, in a way it never has before, that I’m wondering if the Tories have passed the point of no return.

Interesting in France (the News Agents Podcast was saying) it is increasingly the young who are embracing the National Action Fascist Front or whatever they are called now.

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I’m very interested in the demographic data following the election. The country has become so polarised by age since the 2016 referendum, in a way it never has before, that I’m wondering if the Tories have passed the point of no return.

I'm not sure. Thanks to the wonders of social media and the like, harder right options like Reform have pretty broad age demographic appeal, it would appear. The Tories might end up trying to tap into that.

[kenny]

18 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

The media generally like to back a winner.  In this case, while they no doubt had furious comms people from Conservative HQ on the phone, they rightly deemed them irrelevant in 6 weeks time.

They like cash.

 

They back whichever party earns them the most cash and will accept advertising money from anyone.

 

 

[Sampson]

14 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Interesting in France (the News Agents Podcast was saying) it is increasingly the young who are embracing the National Action Fascist Front or whatever they are called now.

Yeh but their traditional Conservative Party has basically withered away in France which is the point. I’m expecting right wing younger people are probably much more likely to vote reform than Tories. 
 

Just feels like the Tories have become a party trying to only appeal to the baby boomers and that gen x, millennials and gen z just won’t vote for them (i think a lot of it is due to the housing market being perceived to have been hoovered up and had the ladder pulled up to the treehouse by the baby boomers) and find them damaged goods. Which is obviously disastrous for the Tories as their voter base dies out, they’ve have to completely redesign themselves and likely take a long time to win those generations round. 

Edited 3 July by Sampson

[Daggers]

57 minutes ago, kenny said:

Right wing MSM controlling the media to keep their something something Tory mates, something something trouts in trough etc etc

You having a stroke or something?

 

You need one of us to call an ambulance?

[Dunge]

29 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Yeh but their traditional Conservative Party has basically withered away in France which is the point. I’m expecting right wing younger people are probably much more likely to vote reform than Tories. 
 

Just feels like the Tories have become a party trying to only appeal to the baby boomers and that gen x, millennials and gen z just won’t vote for them (i think a lot of it is due to the housing market being perceived to have been hoovered up and had the ladder pulled up to the treehouse by the baby boomers) and find them damaged goods. Which is obviously disastrous for the Tories as their voter base dies out, they’ve have to completely redesign themselves and likely take a long time to win those generations round. 

I agree with this - I believe the Conservatives’ inability to provide younger generations with viable aspiration to own a home is the single biggest damage to their future prospects as a political party.

[kenny]

31 minutes ago, Daggers said:

You having a stroke or something?

 

You need one of us to call an ambulance?

I'm very well thank you.

 

Good of you to be so considerate though.

 

Warm fuzzy feelings abound.

[Daggers]

Great to see they’ve rolled out the lying corpulent bag of flesh who presided over wine time Fridays, sex pest defending, Russian cash accepting and Covid murdering. Will certainly add a sense of gravitas to the final 24hrs of the Tories. 

[Bellend Sebastian]

11 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Great to see they’ve rolled out the lying corpulent bag of flesh who presided over wine time Fridays, sex pest defending, Russian cash accepting and Covid murdering. Will certainly add a sense of gravitas to the final 24hrs of the Tories. 

But "Boris" "gets things done"

 

 

[Daggers]

15 minutes ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

But "Boris" "gets things done"

 

 

*secretaries

[grobyfox1990]

2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

The media generally like to back a winner.  In this case, while they no doubt had furious comms people from Conservative HQ on the phone, they rightly deemed them irrelevant in 6 weeks time.

The media are owned and controlled by those who want influence. I think 80% of all UK media is owned by three companies, all presumably domiciled in a layer of trusts and companies offshore. It's about influence not advertising revenue. 

Which is like obviously very easy to do given there was a screenshot of a Sun article from 2017 in this thread yesterday!

[Trav Le Bleu]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

Interesting in France (the News Agents Podcast was saying) it is increasingly the young who are embracing the National Action Fascist Front or whatever they are called now.

They're a bit NAFF

[The Doctor]

genuinely think that the smaller parties (e.g. greens) will go higher than generally predicted. the Tories dying is bad news for labour getting the "hold your nose" vote from the centre left. there's no reason to tactical vote when they're on course for a stonking majority so people are freeer to vote with their ethics 

[Daggers]

Winning a landslide is “bad news” for Labour 😂

 

This election has been the most entertaining. 
 

 

[Zear0]

13 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Winning a landslide is “bad news” for Labour 😂

 

This election has been the most entertaining. 
 

 

Copium is the word. I chuckle seeing the more hard right/left leaning members claim the polls are wrong, and it'll be closer than we think, as it doesn't align with what they want. 

 

Could come to eat those words, but I doubt it. 

[worthosoriginals]

52 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Great to see they’ve rolled out the lying corpulent bag of flesh who presided over wine time Fridays, sex pest defending, Russian cash accepting and Covid murdering. Will certainly add a sense of gravitas to the final 24hrs of the Tories. 

Frankie boyle described him to being like a bin bag of albino body parts and a cross between an unmade bed and a brain injury.

[Foxdiamond]

2 hours ago, Sampson said:

Yeh but their traditional Conservative Party has basically withered away in France which is the point. I’m expecting right wing younger people are probably much more likely to vote reform than Tories. 
 

Just feels like the Tories have become a party trying to only appeal to the baby boomers and that gen x, millennials and gen z just won’t vote for them (i think a lot of it is due to the housing market being perceived to have been hoovered up and had the ladder pulled up to the treehouse by the baby boomers) and find them damaged goods. Which is obviously disastrous for the Tories as their voter base dies out, they’ve have to completely redesign themselves and likely take a long time to win those generations round. 

Just to repeat and sorry if boring this baby boomer has never voted Tory. My Labour voting daughter is often at loggerheads with her best friend who votes Tory simply because she send her kids to private school and the VAT issue 

[bovril]

2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Interesting in France (the News Agents Podcast was saying) it is increasingly the young who are embracing the National Action Fascist Front or whatever they are called now.

Think I read somewhere last few days that Reform are 2nd favourite amongst late teens early 20s in this country. 

[DJ Barry Hammond]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

I’m very interested in the demographic data following the election. The country has become so polarised by age since the 2016 referendum, in a way it never has before, that I’m wondering if the Tories have passed the point of no return.

There will be an interesting paradox post election between Reform and the Conservatives I think.

 

In Farage, regardless of what you think of him, I’d say Reform have the best political leader in the UK in terms of name recognition and vote pull - I’d say he’s even better than Boris at this stage.

 

However, Reform doesn’t have the base or party apparatus required to compete nationally - and I doubt that it would be possible for them to build that in 5 years time.
 

Now obviously the Conservative party does have the party infrastructure - what they lack is cohesive and attractive leadership - and given the stain the last 14 years will leave on the party (not withstanding the low base they may have to come from) they could do a lot worse than persuading Farage to become leader.

 

Plus, the two parties are splitting each other’s votes, so they really do need to figure out a joining or joint strategy.

And yet - I just can’t see the Conservative party allowing that - or indeed Farage accepting that offer the other way.

 

Farage can hardly carry on the anti-establishment moniker if he joins the Conservatives can he? 
 

 

So that’s one side of the coin, but the other difficulty both Reform and the Conservatives may have going forward is that they’ve set Labour up with such a low base to govern from that I’d say it’s going to be pretty easy for Labour to show their first term as a success.

 

Inflation has now come down, so interest rates should fall and with that the economy should start looking better.

 

That position of an improving economy and falling rates should then allow some wriggle room in terms of spending on public services to ensure travel in a positive direction - and that spending is likely to create a short term churn effect in terms of the economy.

 

There’s also Global political aspects that look to be in Labour’s favour.

 

The rise of Le Penn in France creating a much harder stance on immigration there might in turn make it harder to travel through France in order to get to the UK and help reduce boat crossings without Labour doing a single thing.

 

Trump getting elected in the US would conceivably see an end to the war in Ukraine - and probably see an upturn in the global economy too.

 

And with both of those having the potential to look like rather insane governments from onlookers on these shores compared to boring old Keir - how does he not win the difficult second term? 
 

 

If that was the case - and assuming a normal 5 year second parliamentary term this would put Farage close to 70 before he gets another election chance - so if he truly harbours ambitions of becoming this countries PM, the time to strike is the election after this one. 
 

But as I suggest - I don’t see the conditions working for him that time around.

[leicsmac]

9 minutes ago, bovril said:

Think I read somewhere last few days that Reform are 2nd favourite amongst late teens early 20s in this country. 

Yep. Again, this comes down to social media influence for the most part. Casual misogyny and xenophobia have traction online among the young and digitally savvy.