Election prediction time

[zorro en españa]

42 minutes ago, Bert said:

I have no idea who to vote for. My politics knowledge is very little. I’ve tried reading up on parties manifestos and I’m still none the wiser. I think what I hate the most about it all is people pushing their political opinions on others. I’m actually fearful for what is going to happen…. I’m fed up of the conservatives, I wouldn’t be confident in Labour (although the bookies have them as an overwhelming favourite) and I know even less about the other parties. The easiest option for me would be to not vote. But then I can’t really have a moan/opinion on things. 

Bert - do vote.

 

I won’t try to influence you other than ask you one simple question.  What matters to you most?  What party is best able to deliver that for you?

 

I will try to influence you: is what most matters to you the best for everyone.

 

You decide 

[Guesty]

Don't forget this is the first General Election where you need to take valid photo ID with you.

 

Just saw a survey and a surprising amount of people have forgotten/didn't know.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

25 minutes ago, Bert said:

I have no idea who to vote for. My politics knowledge is very little. I’ve tried reading up on parties manifestos and I’m still none the wiser. I think what I hate the most about it all is people pushing their political opinions on others. I’m actually fearful for what is going to happen…. I’m fed up of the conservatives, I wouldn’t be confident in Labour (although the bookies have them as an overwhelming favourite) and I know even less about the other parties. The easiest option for me would be to not vote. But then I can’t really have a moan/opinion on things. 

I get your issue - I think a lot of people are probably in the same position.

 

Now a declaration: I won’t be voting tomorrow, I didn’t want to change my registered address and vote in an area I don’t see myself being in for long.

 

But some suggestions on how you might choose who to vote for:

 

Vote informed locally: You might want to base your vote on who is to represent you locally.

 

There will no doubt be a few candidates, so if you want to narrow it down to who stands a chance you could check out the site below which will show you polling data for your area (I’ve put two links, the first one was running slooooow!);

 

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

 

https://ig.ft.com/uk-general-election/2024/projection/?constituency=E14001172

 

Then just check them out on social media a little, get an idea of their character and go on gut feel - usually our first instincts are good judges of character and ultimately that’s what you want in an elected representative.

 

Vote based on the national picture: The other option would be to look at the national picture and vote based on either the party or political leader you think should be leading the country.

 

Whilst in this case your vote would be an indirect approval because ultimately your vote is always for your local representative - this is still a perfectly valid way of choosing how to vote given it will be the parties and their leaders that will have the large say on things that happen nationally. 
 

Again, in this instance I wouldn’t suggest you go too hard into research - the whole point of having a months worth of campaigning is for the parties to pitch to you.

 

So maybe think of something that impressed you, caught your interest, whatever and go with what your guts telling you - because there’s really no right or wrong answer, it’s about your choice and what you feel comfortable with.

 

As with above, you may want to check your seats polling position to check which of the parties have more of a chance of winning with the idea of placing a potentially decisive vote.

 

This could include choosing to vote ‘tactically’ - by voting for the rival of a person / party you decide you definitely don’t want to hold power.

 

Note on Election Deposit

 

One final thing - each candidate that runs for election has to pay a £500 deposit.

 

If they receive more than 5% of the valid votes cast they get that back - but if not, not only does that candidate suffer the embarrassment of loosing (badly), they’re also £500 down on their efforts.

 

So if you were drawn to an outsider / independent candidate that has little chance of winning overall - don’t feel voting for them is a wasted vote; because it might just be the difference in them getting their £500 back.

 

Hope that helps 😉

[Sampson]

21 minutes ago, zorro en españa said:

Bert - do vote.

 

I won’t try to influence you other than ask you one simple question.  What matters to you most?  What party is best able to deliver that for you?

 

I will try to influence you: is what most matters to you the best for everyone.

 

You decide 

I disagree tbh. I think people should have the right not to vote if they don’t feel informed enough.

 

And tbh democracy only works properly if people are properly informed and understand at least roughly what they are voting for. Everyone should have the right to not feel like they have to get involved though. 
 

I would advise against voting just because you feel like you have to if you don’t feel informed enough. 

Edited 3 July by Sampson

[grobyfox1990]

1 hour ago, Bert said:

I have no idea who to vote for. My politics knowledge is very little. I’ve tried reading up on parties manifestos and I’m still none the wiser. I think what I hate the most about it all is people pushing their political opinions on others. I’m actually fearful for what is going to happen…. I’m fed up of the conservatives, I wouldn’t be confident in Labour (although the bookies have them as an overwhelming favourite) and I know even less about the other parties. The easiest option for me would be to not vote. But then I can’t really have a moan/opinion on things. 

 

This is a good video on it imo. Sadly/embarrassingly this election seems to have turned into an ‘in better than you because I’m voting this way’ contest, which seems to be the way since 2016. When in reality the 99% of us working slaves dependant on a monthly pay cheque need to stick together 

[Father Ted]

Vote Reform UK 👍

[kyleolly]

3 hours ago, Wymsey said:

Does anyone think such official polls are rigged, especially as it's (largely) paper votes?..

 

A vote counter could easily miscount one etc.

I saw a post earlier encouraging Reform voters to take a pen so their vote can’t be rubbed out 😂

[Bert]

1 hour ago, Voll Blau said:

All I'd say is have a good read of what each party is offering (decent bitesize manifestos here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cxeez8271nvo) and, if you're still not sure, go out and spoil your ballot.

 

Sitting at home means whoever's in power assumes you don't care. Send a message at the very least.

I will certainly be voting. Thanks for this 👍🏻

[Voll Blau]

To bring this thread back to its true meaning...

 

 

[Bert]

1 hour ago, zorro en españa said:

Bert - do vote.

 

I won’t try to influence you other than ask you one simple question.  What matters to you most?  What party is best able to deliver that for you?

 

I will try to influence you: is what most matters to you the best for everyone.

 

You decide 

I will vote. It’s more people saying you should vote these because of this this and that which irks me. 
 

I think what matters the most to me is the future of our children, what they’re going to be growing up in and how their future is going to be affected. 

[Tuna]

1 minute ago, Bert said:

I will vote. It’s more people saying you should vote these because of this this and that which irks me. 
 

I think what matters the most to me is the future of our children, what they’re going to be growing up in and how their future is going to be affected. 

Green sounds a good option for you Bert

[jgtuk]

13 minutes ago, Father Ted said:

Vote Reform UK 👍

Why?

Seriously, what do they bring to the table?

[The Quick Brown Fox]

I think Reform are going to do alot better than people think. 

The choices are shocking though. I'm still undecided which way to go, will read up about it in the car park before I vote. 

[Tuna]

3 minutes ago, jgtuk said:

Why?

Seriously, what do they bring to the table?

Are they even standing a candidate on Craggy Island though?

[urban.spaceman]

🚨24 hours until exit polls🚨

 

Revised/Final predictions:

 

Winners: Labour

Seats: 473

Conservatives: 69

Lib Dems 59

SNP 12

Reform 4

Greens 3

Others: 30

 

6 weeks ago:

 

On 22/05/2024 at 20:13, urban.spaceman said:

Winners: Labour

Seats: 456

Conservatives: 114

Lib Dems 29

SNP 12

Reform 1

Greens 3

Others: 35

 

 

[FoxesDeb]

11 minutes ago, The Quick Brown Fox said:

I think Reform are going to do alot better than people think. 

The choices are shocking though. I'm still undecided which way to go, will read up about it in the car park before I vote. 

Agreed, the amount of people I've seen on social media saying they will be voting Reform is quite frightening, even before you see the even larger number of people who agree with them.

 

[The Quick Brown Fox]

I haven't looked at their policies or anything but I have heard a lot of people mention the TV licence getting scrapped as their main reason for voting that way. 

[DJ Barry Hammond]

1 minute ago, FoxesDeb said:

Agreed, the amount of people I've seen on social media saying they will be voting Reform is quite frightening, even before you see the even larger number of people who agree with them.

 

I get that - and Reform will no doubt get a decent share of the vote.

 

But I do sense that the Reform voters tend to be the vocal type that will publish everything about their lives on social media - but there are still a lot of people that will keep themselves to themself and will vote in different ways.

[Devonfox1884]

I think reform are going to have a lot of ‘silent’ voters tomorrow. 

[Lako42]

2 hours ago, Bert said:

I have no idea who to vote for. My politics knowledge is very little. I’ve tried reading up on parties manifestos and I’m still none the wiser. I think what I hate the most about it all is people pushing their political opinions on others. I’m actually fearful for what is going to happen…. I’m fed up of the conservatives, I wouldn’t be confident in Labour (although the bookies have them as an overwhelming favourite) and I know even less about the other parties. The easiest option for me would be to not vote. But then I can’t really have a moan/opinion on things. 

https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/

 

https://www.britainschoice.uk/the-quiz/

[Daggers]

5 hours ago, SpacedX said:

Just got this shite posted through my door...

 

 

FFS!

Why do they all have weird names?

 

1 hour ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Get your dabbers ready...!

 

Missing Hollobone

 

2 hours ago, Bert said:

I have no idea who to vote for. My politics knowledge is very little. I’ve tried reading up on parties manifestos and I’m still none the wiser. I think what I hate the most about it all is people pushing their political opinions on others. I’m actually fearful for what is going to happen…. I’m fed up of the conservatives, I wouldn’t be confident in Labour (although the bookies have them as an overwhelming favourite) and I know even less about the other parties. The easiest option for me would be to not vote. But then I can’t really have a moan/opinion on things. 

 

You are a sound bloke with a good heart, whatever you decide will be the right choice

 

18 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

Agreed, the amount of people I've seen on social media saying they will be voting Reform is quite frightening, even before you see the even larger number of people who agree with them.

 

Mostly bots from Africa and Russia. Come Friday Twitter and Facebook will get the scamming porn bots back. 

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, Daggers said:

Mostly bots from Africa and Russia. Come Friday Twitter and Facebook will get the scamming porn bots back. 

Hopefully so. One wonders about the next time though, other places show the same sentiment is pretty widespread.

[Sampson]

16 minutes ago, Devonfox1884 said:

I think reform are going to have a lot of ‘silent’ voters tomorrow. 

I disagree. I think they’re the loudest voters and most vocal about who they’re voting for out there

Edited 3 July by Sampson

[CosbehFox]

45 minutes ago, The Quick Brown Fox said:

I think Reform are going to do alot better than people think. 

The choices are shocking though. I'm still undecided which way to go, will read up about it in the car park before I vote. 

I don’t think they will. 
 

Mainly because they have a disproportionate amount of coverage in the UK Media. They’ve had more time and columns than any other established party which is frankly unfair. Therefore it’s easy to build ann impression is that they are popular.
 

Ultimately it’s three things why I don’t think they will be that successful 

 

1. They have very ‘loud’ supporters 

2. Their support centres on county seats (and the less populated areas - oh ironic), they will get utterly whacked in city/larger town based seats. 
3. A lot of people who share the views of Reform actually need motivated to vote - think voter id stings them too 

Edited 3 July by CosbehFox

[Daggers]

Absolutely fvcked now, having stomped about the villages and town dishing out a few hundred final directed mailshots. Feel I’ve done my bit in attempting to prevent our complete fvckwad of a local MP from being reelected. 
 

A Leffe is well deserved. 
 

So looking forward to tomorrow. Got a stint ferrying OAPs to the poll, then it’s time to open Daggers’ cocktail emporium and crack out the vol-au-vents.