Election prediction time

[Daggers]

[Ginger_Filbert]

I really think the amount of votes Reform get is going to shock people. 
 

So many people I know have said they’re voting for them, including what feels like literally half the shop floor at work. 

[worthosoriginals]

6 minutes ago, kyleolly said:

£8.50 for Donner meat and chips I doubt there’s a queue 

Tories out.

[Tuna]

Here are my predictions

 

Labour 413

Conservative 134

Liberal Democrats 52

SNP 24

Green 3

Plaid Cymru 3

Reform 2

Independant 1

 

Northern Ireland seats 18

 

Labour Majority 237

[DJ Barry Hammond]

I haven’t spotted any panicked Labour social media activity today - which to me suggests they feel comfortable in their position.

 

The Conservatives on the other hand - some MP’s in particular have been at it all day.

 

Think Nigel’s relaxed too based on his activity - although success for him can be counted at anywhere above 2 seats and a midterms vote share.

Edited 4 July by DJ Barry Hammond

[worthosoriginals]

8 minutes ago, Ginger_Filbert said:

I really think the amount of votes Reform get is going to shock people. 
 

So many people I know have said they’re voting for them, including what feels like literally half the shop floor at work. 

Where do you work, Blaby chippy?

[leicsmac]

I share the same thoughts about the ascendancy of Reform as some others and (as per previous discussion) if they do well this time it will be either total feast or famine next time.

 

However, I do not see how the policies they embody appeal to anyone who has any kind of empathy beyond their line of sight both spatially and temporally. And that's not a moral argument either - pragmatically, short term self interest fvcks everyone long term. That's just causality.

[Bilo]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I share the same thoughts about the ascendancy of Reform as some others and (as per previous discussion) if they do well this time it will be either total feast or famine next time.

 

However, I do not see how the policies they embody appeal to anyone who has any kind of empathy beyond their line of sight both spatially and temporally. And that's not a moral argument either - pragmatically, short term self interest fvcks everyone long term. That's just causality.

My suspicion is that any Reform MPs who are elected will perform poorly due to overpromising and underdelivering as well as media appearances taking precedent over constituents. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

15 minutes ago, Daggers said:

How do people that believe stuff like this make it through their day to say? It's ridiculous

[Grebfromgrebland]

If reform get any MP they'll be on TV 24/7

[Free Falling Foxes]

Perhaps not the time or place to mention this, but does the average member of the public discuss politics  much, even at this moment in time?

I was out playing tennis on Tuesday, during a chat afterwards the election wasn't mentioned once.

Yesterday I was with 10 other folks aged between 50 and 70 for a couple of hours. Again, politics was not mentioned once.

 

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, Bilo said:

My suspicion is that any Reform MPs who are elected will perform poorly due to overpromising and underdelivering as well as media appearances taking precedent over constituents. 

I hope you're right, I fear you won't be.

 

2029 will be more of a moment of truth on that score, I think.

[goose2010]

1 minute ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

How do people that believe stuff like this make it through their day to say? It's ridiculous

To be fair when I've just been to vote they were shocked I hadn't brought my own.... 

[Lako42]

Worst experience I've ever had voting. 

 

I caught a glimpse of Andrew Bridgen's actual face in person and felt violently sick. 

 

Looks like Ralph off the Simpsons 

[Dahnsouff]

4 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

How do people that believe stuff like this make it through their day to say? It's ridiculous

They believe it will get them likes/retweets/whatever-the-hell-they-are-called, that is about it.

[Bilo]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I hope you're right, I fear you won't be.

 

2029 will be more of a moment of truth on that score, I think.

I suspect Farage in particular will perform similarly as an MP to someone like George Galloway. 

 

Fond of campaigning, grandstanding and the extra fee he can charge as an MP for TV appearances, but not quite so tenacious when it comes to fighting for SEND provision for the family of an autistic child in a council estate on their constituency. 

[kyleolly]

3 minutes ago, Free Falling Foxes said:

Perhaps not the time or place to mention this, but does the average member of the public discuss politics  much, even at this moment in time?

I was out playing tennis on Tuesday, during a chat afterwards the election wasn't mentioned once.

Yesterday I was with 10 other folks aged between 50 and 70 for a couple of hours. Again, politics was not mentioned once.

 

Not politics directly but lots of conversations around under funding of lots of services 

[Greg2607]

6 minutes ago, Lako42 said:

Worst experience I've ever had voting. 

 

I caught a glimpse of Andrew Bridgen's actual face in person and felt violently sick. 

 

Looks like Ralph off the Simpsons 

Was he wearing his suit of armour???

[urban.spaceman]

Am at the "Chelsea have got one back" stage.

[Lako42]

Just now, Greg2607 said:

Was he wearing his suit of armour???

Not sure. 

 

 

He was in his Chelsea tractor pulling a big **** off advert of his giant smug twat face. 

[Andy11111]

13 minutes ago, Free Falling Foxes said:

Perhaps not the time or place to mention this, but does the average member of the public discuss politics  much, even at this moment in time?

I was out playing tennis on Tuesday, during a chat afterwards the election wasn't mentioned once.

Yesterday I was with 10 other folks aged between 50 and 70 for a couple of hours. Again, politics was not mentioned once.

 

Not really, what's the point.

[Daggers]

18 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

How do people that believe stuff like this make it through their day to say? It's ridiculous

People vote for the likes of Fürage and Galloway, eh. There’s a shit-ton of really stupid fvckers out there. 

[Super_horns]

Would you vote for Rick ?

 

[The Doctor]

1 hour ago, SlaneyLCFC said:

100% it is

 

Both 2 cheeks of the same arse.  Sunak just making way for starmer is like change of middle management. Labour haven't represented any "working class" people for years. Tories are just running this country into the ground at a slower rate then what labour will do.

 

The 2 party system need a good kick up the backside and voting reform is a good start. Lib dems and greens are just essentially a cuck in the political relationship.

I mean yes, Starmer is just restarting the last 14 years given how labours campaign could easily be mistaken for Cameron's if you were colour blind, but reform isn't kicking the 2 party system apart, it's taking Tory policies to their logical end, restoring perfidious Albion as a petty little island loathed by the world. pick an independent, go green or lib dem, hell, find some weird local party who want Leicestershire to secede from the UK and become it's own nation because theres no FFP in the world cup, just not reform.

[Lionator]

26 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I share the same thoughts about the ascendancy of Reform as some others and (as per previous discussion) if they do well this time it will be either total feast or famine next time.

 

However, I do not see how the policies they embody appeal to anyone who has any kind of empathy beyond their line of sight both spatially and temporally. And that's not a moral argument either - pragmatically, short term self interest fvcks everyone long term. That's just causality.

At least Le Pen’s lot in France are actually offering something for the youth. Reform don’t really have much aside from anti immigration stuff which would be impossible to actually implement.