Election prediction time

[StanSP]

The guy running the Tories' campaign has been given a peerage? 

[Tuna]

Can't find where these reform 13 seats are, Clacton and Great Yarmouth but not found anywhere else

[Tuna]

Just now, StanSP said:

The guy running the Tories' campaign has been given a peerage? 

Sunak's Chief of staff has, not the campaign chief (Levido).

[StanSP]

Just now, Tuna said:

Can't find where these reform 13 seats are, Clacton and Great Yarmouth but not found anywhere else

Bassetlaw one of them. 

[Mark_w]

Just now, grth2004 said:

Reform will slowly implode as there’s far too many racist nutcases in the party. 

There's far too many racist nutcases in the country though...

[StanSP]

Just now, Tuna said:

Sunak's Chief of staff has, not the campaign chief (Levido).

Cheers. Channel 4 ran through the list quite quickly. Liam someone? 

 

Therese Coffey too 

[Voll Blau]

1 minute ago, Tuna said:

Can't find where these reform 13 seats are, Clacton and Great Yarmouth but not found anywhere else

Two Barnsley and Hartlepool as well apparently.

[westernpark]

Anyone have a prediction for Leicester East? Please not Vaz. I’d hope the anti Vaz hope can unite everyone in this thread.

[leicsmac]

7 minutes ago, SlaneyLCFC said:

Great to see 👍 

 

They need to kick on from here if the projection is right for when the next election comes about. 

I'm asking honestly here, looking for understanding.

 

What exactly about the idea of a party like Reform setting policy is attractive? Is it because the long-term risks (like history showing nationalist governments = conflict, especially when ignoring natural factors that will strain resources increasing that risk of conflict) are not worth thinking about, because they won't happen or because the shorter-term is simply more valuable?

 

Would appreciate some insight.

[adam]

1 minute ago, Tuna said:

Can't find where these reform 13 seats are, Clacton and Great Yarmouth but not found anywhere else

Boston and Skegvegas?

[StanSP]

Just now, westernpark said:

Anyone have a prediction for Leicester East? Please not Vaz. I’d hope the anti Vaz hope can unite everyone in this thread.

[LCFCCHRIS]

27 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

it's about national swing basically. if we had a functional democratic system which apportioned power in relation to support rather than First Past the Post which is a shit or bust system, then reform would get more seats than the lib Dems on the vote share, but under FPTP they'll probably get a decent amount of votes nationwide but not enough to concentrate into a large number of seats, where as the lib dems support is concentrated into a few constituencies so they'll keep the seats they were in/gain a few where they were in second 

A negative of this system would be single issue parties and radical parties being able to get seats. Even joke/ mock parties would get seats in this social media meme age. It would be wild and much worse imo. 

[Guest Col city fan]

6 minutes ago, Rain King said:

Thing you mean South Leicestershire?

 

Currently showing too close to call.

Thats the fella 👍
If South Leicestershire has turned red, it’s game over! The Tories will never regain power!

Edited 4 July by Col city fan

[The Fox Covert]

2 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Rees-Mogg close call 

Rees-Mogg is in the neighbouring seat to where I live and I can tell you I rarely hear anyone say a good word about him. I cartooned him as the Minister for Silly Walks today. Hopefully he is out on his ear and he can go back to his country mansion and learn to ride a horse properly and go fox hunting. 

[goody2028]

 

[Tuna]

Just now, adam said:

Boston and Skegvegas?

Nope too close to call. Don't think he'll win (Tice), Warman the Conservative candidate is apparantly very popular

[StanSP]

Just now, The Fox Covert said:

Rees-Mogg is in the neighbouring seat to where I live and I can tell you I rarely hear anyone say a good word about him. I cartooned him as the Minister for Silly Walks today. Hopefully he is out on his ear and he can go back to his country mansion and learn to ride a horse properly and go fox hunting. 

I can't see the difference mate? 

[adam]

84% chance tory hold for Liz Truss. How can anyone vote for that clown.

[Guest Col city fan]

3 minutes ago, Mark_w said:

There's far too many racist nutcases in the country though...

STILL no apology Mark?!

 

[Tuna]

Just now, adam said:

84% chance tory hold for Liz Truss. How can anyone vote for that clown.

Depends how good they are as a local constituency MP, this matters to a lot of people I think.

[Mark_w]

Just now, Col city fan said:

STILL no apology Mark?!

 

What do you want me to apologise for?

[DJ Barry Hammond]

3 minutes ago, Tuna said:

Can't find where these reform 13 seats are, Clacton and Great Yarmouth but not found anywhere else

I’d expect a couple in the North-East - Hartlepool / Sunderland. Maybe Boston (strong Brexit vote). 
 

Maybe a seat out on the North West coast? 

[grth2004]

2 minutes ago, Mark_w said:

There's far too many racist nutcases in the country though...

True and they now have a party with seats in parliament. The only downside of the Election is the slight rise of the far right. 
I’ll concentrate on the good stuff though 😁

[Guest Col city fan]

4 minutes ago, westernpark said:

Anyone have a prediction for Leicester East? Please not Vaz. I’d hope the anti Vaz hope can unite everyone in this thread.

I’d be surprised if Vaz don’t get in again tbh

[kingkisnorbo]

Find that Reform figure very concerning. More concerning how popular they seem with younger voters.