Election prediction time

[Daggers]

News night was complete gash tonight, they’ve utterly gutted the show. I used to like Victoria on 5live but she’s really goi g into LK levels of bias with tonight’s ranting. 
 

Maitlis was awesome. Maitlis got it. She understood what balance meant. 
 

 

[Jon the Hat]

9 hours ago, LiberalFox said:

They've always been seen as charities rather than businesses. I suppose if they are now just businesses they will have no obligations towards their local communities. 

This is a good point, I would fully expect fee paying schools to immediately cancel all of their charitable work to try to swallow some of the increases.  Scholarships etc. are driven by their charitable status.  Tthis continues the elitism of private schools so only the very rich can afford them.  Civil servants used to send their kids to private school.

 

What I would say is what annoys me most about this is the tax take quoted by Labour, which assumes NO kids leave private school and attend public school, or that schools take not action to reduce fees.  Which is obvsiouly nonsense. 

Edited 29 May by Jon the Hat

[Robo61]

2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

This is a good point, I would fully expect fee paying schools to immediately cancel all of their charitable work to try to swallow some of the increases.  Scholarships etc. are driven by their charitable status.  Tthis continues the elitism of private schools so only the very rich can afford them.  Civil servants used to send their kids to private school.

 

What I would say is what annoys me most about this is the tax take quoted by Labour, which assumes NO kids leave private school and attend public school, or that schools take not action to reduce fees.  Which is obvsiouly nonsense. 

You can't really think that offering full time scholarships to at best 0.1% of our country countries childen does anything to reduce the elitism of these institutions.

The Labour Party are using figures supplied by the Institute for Fiscal Stuies when assessing how much this policy will raise. So are not ignoring at all any probable knock on effect of this policy.

[Daggers]

He’s building himself quite a scarf collection now. Such a ruddy great footy fan. 
 

[Jon the Hat]

29 minutes ago, Robo61 said:

You can't really think that offering full time scholarships to at best 0.1% of our country countries childen does anything to reduce the elitism of these institutions.

The Labour Party are using figures supplied by the Institute for Fiscal Stuies when assessing how much this policy will raise. So are not ignoring at all any probable knock on effect of this policy.

This will make them more elite is my point, on the very rich will be there.  How does this help anyone?

[Daggers]

1 minute ago, Jon the Hat said:

This will make them more elite is my point, on the very rich will be there.  How does this help anyone?

Err, because the very rich will be paying tax that funds improvements in the state sector?

[StanSP]

 

[Jon the Hat]

43 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Err, because the very rich will be paying tax that funds improvements in the state sector?

This is a crap way of achieving that.  Almost like the objective is to discourage people from going to private schools rather than raising funds to improve state schools.  It's the Labour equivalent of the Torys banging on about immigrants.  The Rich are the problem for them, rather than the immigrant.  Same politics, and it is poor imo, the kind of thing we should be moving away from.

[Jon the Hat]

17 minutes ago, StanSP said:

 

Reform being above half the Tory vote is impressive.  Alarming but impressive.

[leicsmac]

8 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Reform being above half the Tory vote is impressive.  Alarming but impressive.

I think it (about 10-12%) tallies with existing polling information regarding "being British means being white", climate change ignorance and suppression of women's rights tbh.

 

Mixture of older folks with one issue (immigration) voting patterns and younger ones radicalised by conspiracist Internet blackpill bollocks (which is the more concerning thing).

 

Far more of an issue elsewhere than the UK, fortunately and unfortunately.

Edited 29 May by leicsmac

[SpacedX]

1 hour ago, Daggers said:

He’s building himself quite a scarf collection now. Such a ruddy great footy fan. 
 

Whilst visiting a factory in Wales last week he asked personnel whether they are looking forward to the Euros. 

[Daggers]

7 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

This is a crap way of achieving that.  Almost like the objective is to discourage people from going to private schools rather than raising funds to improve state schools.  It's the Labour equivalent of the Torys banging on about immigrants.  The Rich are the problem for them, rather than the immigrant.  Same politics, and it is poor imo, the kind of thing we should be moving away from.

So VAT is a shit way of raising funds because it discourages people from buying food? Stamp duty is a disincentive to house buying? Nonsense. 

 

Anyway, its moot because it's happening.

[Jon the Hat]

7 minutes ago, Daggers said:

So VAT is a shit way of raising funds because it discourages people from buying food? Stamp duty is a disincentive to house buying? Nonsense. 

Anyway, its moot because it's happening.

Of course Stamp duty is a disincentive to house buying.  Stops people making sensible moves to be close to work etc all the time.

 

Yep, and I feel for the impacted families who cannot afford to pay the increase.  These are exactly the people Labour should be courting, but no.

[reporterpenguin]

I’m quite puzzled as to why Sunak visited Bosworth yesterday when it’s surely one of the safest seats in the country. Surely his time would be better spent in seats that they’re at a real risk of losing. 
 

Either they’re worried about seats that have a majority of ~27,000, or he really has just given up and doesn’t care about trying to limit the damage. 

[Daggers]

1 minute ago, Jon the Hat said:

Of course Stamp duty is a disincentive to house buying.  Stops people making sensible moves to be close to work etc all the time..

😂
 

You know what happened when there was a stamp duty holiday? Sellers increased the asking price for their homes to profit from it. 

[Jon the Hat]

7 minutes ago, Daggers said:

😂
 

You know what happened when there was a stamp duty holiday? Sellers increased the asking price for their homes to profit from it. 

Short term blip because everyone knew it was coming back, so they were willing to pay more to save overall.  If it was permanently removed this would not happen.

[Innovindil]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

 

If these polls ring true, there's genuinely a punchers chance of a Labour government and a lib dem opposition. Which would be decent banter for all tbh. 

[Robo61]

18 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Short term blip because everyone knew it was coming back, so they were willing to pay more to save overall.  If it was permanently removed this would not happen.

Its supply and demand that determins price,  when tax is included in the price it has very little effect on the price to the consumer  Thought you of all people would understand that. 

[Tuna]

2 hours ago, Daggers said:

He’s building himself quite a scarf collection now. Such a ruddy great footy fan. 
 

Scunthorpe colours?

[Sampson]

Regarding demographics talk the other day. This is why I think it’s going to be a long long time before Tories get into power again. Despite the old adage that people get more small c conservative as they get older, all the data shows the age split in voting has never been anywhere near as drastic as it is now. Only 8% of under 50s say they’ll vote Tories, I just can’t see an entire generation of 35-50 years olds shifting allegiances all at once as they reach their 50s and 60s and the older voters die off and younger ones become of voting age 

 

 

Edited 29 May by Sampson

[Daggers]

1 hour ago, Tuna said:

Scunthorpe colours?

You got four letters correct

[Robo61]

11 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Regarding demographics talk the other day. This is why I think it’s going to be a long long time before Tories get into power again. Despite the old adage that people get more small c conservative as they get older, all the data shows the age split in voting has never been anywhere near as drastic as it is now. Only 8% of under 50s say they’ll vote Tories, I just can’t see an entire generation of 35-50 years olds shifting allegiances all at once as they reach their 50s and 60s and the older voters die off and younger ones become of voting age 

 

 

This is the biggest difference between the two parties is that Labour now understand that they need to attract former tory voters in this and subsequent elecetions if they are to win and remain in power.  The tories on the other hand only seem to have any interest in attracting their base.  It will be intersting to see where they go after this election,  but I only see them moving further to the right in the short to medium term.  They will though after a few years in the wilderness though come to their senses,  whether thats too late only time will tell. 

[Tuna]

18 minutes ago, Daggers said:

You got four letters correct

I knew what would happen as soon as I posted it!

[Daggers]

2 minutes ago, Tuna said:

I knew what would happen as soon as I posted it!

Glad to be predictable. 😎

[StanSP]