Election prediction time

[bovril]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

Regarding demographics talk the other day. This is why I think it’s going to be a long long time before Tories get into power again. Despite the old adage that people get more small c conservative as they get older, all the data shows the age split in voting has never been anywhere near as drastic as it is now. Only 8% of under 50s say they’ll vote Tories, I just can’t see an entire generation of 35-50 years olds shifting allegiances all at once as they reach their 50s and 60s and the older voters die off and younger ones become of voting age 

 

 

Interesting how low LD are. 

[ramboacdc]

4 hours ago, StanSP said:

 

Apparently this would leave the tories with 29 seats according to Electoral Calculus. 

[urban.spaceman]

3 hours ago, reporterpenguin said:

I’m quite puzzled as to why Sunak visited Bosworth yesterday when it’s surely one of the safest seats in the country. Surely his time would be better spent in seats that they’re at a real risk of losing. 
 

Either they’re worried about seats that have a majority of ~27,000, or he really has just given up and doesn’t care about trying to limit the damage. 

I think they're genuinely worried. Look at some of the majorities Labour overturned in by-elections over the last couple of years:
 

Wellingborough (Peter Bone) was 21,000

Tamworth (Chris Pincher) was 20,000

Mid Bedfordshire (Mad Nads) was 25,000

 

Or Lib Dems:

Somerset and From (Neil Warburton) was 19,000

Tiverton and Honiton (Tractor Porn) was 25,000 over Labour; 28,000 over Lib Dems

 

Obviously they were by-elections so turnout was very low, so they just assumed these were outliers and that the national polls would narrow closer to the election.

 

It's pretty clear now that the mood has changed in the country. They could genuinely be facing less than 100 MPs and looking at the demographic change, decades out of power.

 

They're panicking and terrified and we haven't even got into full-on election mode yet. Starmer has been playing it very safe and has done very well with it so far. 

 

Even Sunak's seat's boundary has changed and could be vulnerable. Quite literally NO seat is safe.

[SkidsFox]

There's something I particularly hate about election campaigns (and it appears to be getting worse). We are spoon fed images of the politicians doing things they don't normally do like driving fork lifts or using paddle boats. 

We're voting on whether we think the politician has the necessary attributes to run the country in the way we prefer. Not whether we think they look good trying to play football or sail across Windermere or some other meaningless activity. 

[bovril]

3 hours ago, reporterpenguin said:

I’m quite puzzled as to why Sunak visited Bosworth yesterday when it’s surely one of the safest seats in the country. Surely his time would be better spent in seats that they’re at a real risk of losing. 
 

Either they’re worried about seats that have a majority of ~27,000, or he really has just given up and doesn’t care about trying to limit the damage. 

Massively unpopular leader known for his strange physical appearance visits Bosworth. Perhaps trying to channel the spirit of Richard III. 

[urban.spaceman]

AND IT'S LIIIIIVE

 

 

[urban.spaceman]

Nice to see some Leicester representation in this election.

[Innovindil]

3 hours ago, Innovindil said:

If these polls ring true, there's genuinely a punchers chance of a Labour government and a lib dem opposition. Which would be decent banter for all tbh. 

 

47 minutes ago, ramboacdc said:

Apparently this would leave the tories with 29 seats according to Electoral Calculus. 

 

When the math in your head checks out. FeelsGoodMan. 

[Legend_in_blue]

1 hour ago, ramboacdc said:

Apparently this would leave the tories with 29 seats according to Electoral Calculus. 

And you can guarantee that one of those 29 will be Costa's.  

[reporterpenguin]

44 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

I think they're genuinely worried. Look at some of the majorities Labour overturned in by-elections over the last couple of years:
 

Wellingborough (Peter Bone) was 21,000

Tamworth (Chris Pincher) was 20,000

Mid Bedfordshire (Mad Nads) was 25,000

 

Or Lib Dems:

Somerset and From (Neil Warburton) was 19,000

Tiverton and Honiton (Tractor Porn) was 25,000 over Labour; 28,000 over Lib Dems

 

Obviously they were by-elections so turnout was very low, so they just assumed these were outliers and that the national polls would narrow closer to the election.

 

It's pretty clear now that the mood has changed in the country. They could genuinely be facing less than 100 MPs and looking at the demographic change, decades out of power.

 

They're panicking and terrified and we haven't even got into full-on election mode yet. Starmer has been playing it very safe and has done very well with it so far. 

 

Even Sunak's seat's boundary has changed and could be vulnerable. Quite literally NO seat is safe.

Fair point, it just seems unimaginable that ~27,000 could no longer be considered safe. 
 

The thing with those results you’ve cited, and I know this is a Tory line but on this occasion I think it might actually be true, those by elections had a lot of extra baggage with the circumstances that caused them. 
 

I obviously have an interest with it being my constituency, but it’ll be a very interesting one to help quantify just how badly it goes for them. 

[Daggers]

Sticking to the plan seems to have gone well then

 

 

[leicsmac]

So... somewhere between Blair's 179 record majority seats and 220 seats as a prediction, then?

[urban.spaceman]

 

[Zear0]

3 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

"Patriot Club".  Know they're a bunch of ****ers

[LiberalFox]

I think Labour win the election but I don't know how big the majority will be.

 

I'm hoping the Lib Dems can get a decent number of MPs. 

 

Mostly I hope for a good intake of MPs. 

 

 

[urban.spaceman]

2 hours ago, reporterpenguin said:

Fair point, it just seems unimaginable that ~27,000 could no longer be considered safe. 

Yup. That's how awful they've been. At least in previous generations the Tories have known to be awful in smaller doses enough to be reelected.

 

2 hours ago, reporterpenguin said:

The thing with those results you’ve cited, and I know this is a Tory line but on this occasion I think it might actually be true, those by elections had a lot of extra baggage with the circumstances that caused them. 

Absolutely; like I said, I think they genuinely took those circumstances for granted and hadn't even considered that they might be part of a national trend. In reality Corbyn was a gift to them in the short term but poison in the long term. They got complacent especially during the pandemic and didn't expect Labour to find a competent leader capable of beating them.

 

2 hours ago, reporterpenguin said:

I obviously have an interest with it being my constituency, but it’ll be a very interesting one to help quantify just how badly it goes for them. 

What's your constituency if you don't mind me asking? Mine (Charnwood) has been Tory ever since it was created and has kept increasing. It's splitting into 3 now and my new one (Melton and Syston) seems to be projected for Labour.

 

I don't think people are quite prepared for the seismic change about to hit British politics. Following on from the poll @Sampson posted earlier, not only could the Conservatives be about to suffer their worst result in 200 years, the age demographics suggest they could be out of power for GENERATIONS.

 

5 hours ago, Sampson said:

Regarding demographics talk the other day. This is why I think it’s going to be a long long time before Tories get into power again. Despite the old adage that people get more small c conservative as they get older, all the data shows the age split in voting has never been anywhere near as drastic as it is now. Only 8% of under 50s say they’ll vote Tories, I just can’t see an entire generation of 35-50 years olds shifting allegiances all at once as they reach their 50s and 60s and the older voters die off and younger ones become of voting age 

 

 

 

[FoxesDeb]

Does anyone know if a proxy vote needs to be made in the same constituency as the voter is registered in? I can't seem to find a definitive answer online

[Zear0]

14 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

Does anyone know if a proxy vote needs to be made in the same constituency as the voter is registered in? I can't seem to find a definitive answer online

Best I can find is https://www.gov.uk/how-to-vote/voting-by-proxy

 

You can ask anyone to act as your proxy - as long as they:

• are registered to vote
• are allowed to vote in the type of election taking place
• can vote in the polling station stated on your poll card
• They’ll need to take their own photo ID with them to vote in some elections.
• If they cannot get to your polling station, they will need to contact your local Electoral Registration Office to arrange to cast their proxy vote by post.

My interpretation is that it sounds like a yes.

Edited 29 May by Zear0

[Greg2607]

3 hours ago, reporterpenguin said:

Fair point, it just seems unimaginable that ~27,000 could no longer be considered safe. 
 

The thing with those results you’ve cited, and I know this is a Tory line but on this occasion I think it might actually be true, those by elections had a lot of extra baggage with the circumstances that caused them. 
 

I obviously have an interest with it being my constituency, but it’ll be a very interesting one to help quantify just how badly it goes for them. 

Hell will freeze over before Hinckley and Bosworth is anything other than a Tory seat. 

[FoxesDeb]

51 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

Best I can find is https://www.gov.uk/how-to-vote/voting-by-proxy

 

You can ask anyone to act as your proxy - as long as they:

• are registered to vote
• are allowed to vote in the type of election taking place
• can vote in the polling station stated on your poll card
• They’ll need to take their own photo ID with them to vote in some elections.
• If they cannot get to your polling station, they will need to contact your local Electoral Registration Office to arrange to cast their proxy vote by post.

My interpretation is that it sounds like a yes.

Thanks, yes that's what I saw too. 

 

The last point makes me think I may just as well arrange my own postal vote if I don't have anyone I can rely on who is registered to vote in my own constituency.

 

Anyone want to volunteer to cast my proxy vote who is registered in Oadby and Wigston? 

[reporterpenguin]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

What's your constituency if you don't mind me asking? Mine (Charnwood) has been Tory ever since it was created and has kept increasing. It's splitting into 3 now and my new one (Melton and Syston) seems to be projected for Labour.

I'm in Bosworth, which has been Tory since the 60's. Before that it was Labour for a couple of decades, and Liberal before that (according to a quick scan of Wikipedia).

 

In '97 it was only won by ~1k votes so I suppose it's not beyond possibility it could go to Labour but it seems pretty doubtful. I've only heard decent things about the incumbent MP who took on the seat in 2019, whereas the previous MP nobody had anything good to say about yet he was still voted in for over 30 years. 

[urban.spaceman]

25 minutes ago, reporterpenguin said:

I'm in Bosworth, which has been Tory since the 60's. Before that it was Labour for a couple of decades, and Liberal before that (according to a quick scan of Wikipedia).

 

In '97 it was only won by ~1k votes so I suppose it's not beyond possibility it could go to Labour but it seems pretty doubtful. I've only heard decent things about the incumbent MP who took on the seat in 2019, whereas the previous MP nobody had anything good to say about yet he was still voted in for over 30 years. 

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Hinckley and Bosworth

 

Not looking good I'm afraid. Though IMO the poll gap nationally will expand and this could push them out.

[Daggers]

 

[Daggers]

So, Labour are now doing the LibDem’s account

 

 

[Sampson]

2 hours ago, urban.spaceman said:

Yup. That's how awful they've been. At least in previous generations the Tories have known to be awful in smaller doses enough to be reelected.

 

Absolutely; like I said, I think they genuinely took those circumstances for granted and hadn't even considered that they might be part of a national trend. In reality Corbyn was a gift to them in the short term but poison in the long term. They got complacent especially during the pandemic and didn't expect Labour to find a competent leader capable of beating them.

 

What's your constituency if you don't mind me asking? Mine (Charnwood) has been Tory ever since it was created and has kept increasing. It's splitting into 3 now and my new one (Melton and Syston) seems to be projected for Labour.

 

I don't think people are quite prepared for the seismic change about to hit British politics. Following on from the poll @Sampson posted earlier, not only could the Conservatives be about to suffer their worst result in 200 years, the age demographics suggest they could be out of power for GENERATIONS.

 

 

Victoria Derbyshire gave a good summary.

 

 

You have to be in your 50s to be an adult during Thatcher now, that’s the thing. Many older voters vote Tory for life often citing the winter of discontent in the 70s. But this generation have Brexit, Covid and the mass fallout from this to look back on which will now in turn take a lot of getting over. I can’t see this generation getting over it especially when so many are overwhelmingly pro-EU. I think Brexit kept Tories in power in the last election but will kill then long term given how age dependent the demographics of the referendum was.