Election prediction time

[urban.spaceman]

Wonderfully balanced panel there, Beeb.

 

 

[Bilo]

I would say that the Tories could end up being in a worse position than Labour were between 1979 and 1992.

 

A whole generation of voters had abandoned Labour because of their record in the 1970s, but they did at least have younger voters who stuck with them and carried on voting for them right until 1997 where they ended up with a landslide. The Tories are likely to be abandoned by Millennials because of Brexit and austerity, Gen Z because of their anti-youth policies and, crucially, Gen Alpha voters are likely to lean left in the short term at least when they come of age. They may have to wait for a critical mass of older Millennials to flip and turn to the right, but this will only happen if Labour are in power for a number of years and/or become totally incompetent. Voters currently in their late thirties and rsrly forties probably won't touch the Tories until they're in their mid to late fifties, which has become the 'tipping point' when a plurality of voters switch from Labour to Tory. Not only is that far from certain, but Gen Z voters who will be in their mid thirties by that stage are still unlikely to lean right.

 

Simply put, this is existential for the Tories without an enormous rebrand that will take upwards of a decade to bed in and longer for voters to trust them again. The next Tory leader, possibly the next two Tory leaders, are probably going to be the modern equivalent of Hague and IDS, trying to rebuild support and reinvent the party to make them electable again. If they go anywhere below 150 in this election, it'll take 15 years or more. Anywhere below 100 and I suspect they'll go the way of the Canadian Tories in 1993.

 

[Parafox]

I know it's something they must do, but I wish the party leaders would refrain from doing "ordinary" things, like serving food at a charity kitchen or wearing a hard hat in a factory whilst talking to (patronising) the workers that have been told to get out there and play nice by senior management.

 

It makes them look what they are; out of touch with the general public.

Edited 29 May by Parafox

[urban.spaceman]

11 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Victoria Derbyshire gave a good summary.

 

 

You have to be in your 50s to be an adult during Thatcher now, that’s the thing. Many older voters vote Tory for life often citing the winter of discontent in the 70s. But this generation have Brexit, Covid and the mass fallout from this to look back on which will now in turn take a lot of getting over. I can’t see this generation getting over it especially when so many are overwhelmingly pro-EU. I think Brexit kept Tories in power in the last election but will kill then long term given how age dependent the demographics of the referendum was. 

I will honestly campaign to make July 4th a UK national holiday if they really are wiped out so badly they're ****ed for generations. 

[Zear0]

49 minutes ago, Daggers said:

 

Presume it's the scag dealer who had to apologise for associating with someone so vile?

[Parafox]

23 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Victoria Derbyshire gave a good summary.

 

 

You have to be in your 50s to be an adult during Thatcher now, that’s the thing. Many older voters vote Tory for life often citing the winter of discontent in the 70s. But this generation have Brexit, Covid and the mass fallout from this to look back on which will now in turn take a lot of getting over. I can’t see this generation getting over it especially when so many are overwhelmingly pro-EU. I think Brexit kept Tories in power in the last election but will kill then long term given how age dependent the demographics of the referendum was. 

 

It's a shame that clip was cut before we could hear his weasel words in response.

 

Also, I was in my 20's during the year of discontent and as a result I voted Conservative. What resulted was a Thatcher government that was infinitely worse than their predecessors. They were party that was spiteful, nasty, self serving, greedy, unrepentant, arrogant, patronising, money grabbing and youth-hating.

 

Not much has changed in 50 years.

[Daggers]

14 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

I will honestly campaign to make July 4th a UK national holiday if they really are wiped out so badly they're ****ed for generations. 

That, and for as many decent people as possible to join the Tories and vote Truss in as leader again. 

[Bilo]

6 minutes ago, Daggers said:

That, and for as many decent people as possible to join the Tories and vote Truss in as leader again. 

Where they turn after the election will be critical to determining whether they can ever return to being an electable party. Double down on the right-wing crazy and culture wars nonsense and I'd go so far as to say that there's more chance of Labour splintering and those two splinter groups forming the two main parties than there is of a Tory comeback. With effectively no serious Tory opposition to unite against, it becomes harder for the SCG types and social democrats like Streeting and Reeves to find common ground  That would effectively mean a centrist party and a left-wing party forming the bulk of seats and then seeing which way the Lib Dems fall, while what remains of the Tories and Reform merge and attempt to rebuild.

[Legend_in_blue]

[Daggers]

 

[bovril]

It was predictable and widely predicted that the direction the Conservatives were going in, especially regarding Brexit, would be the death of them in the end. As others have said I can't see them getting back into power in their current form. Maybe a new right wing party will be able to capitalise on dissatisfaction amongst young people over declining living standards like has happened in the rest of Europe. It's a shame really because I am generally quite conservative and wary of some of the more extreme politics amongst young left wingers in the UK, but the anglophone right wing is just so weird and so pathetic now. It's like they've got everything they wanted and it's demonstrably made life worse so they've totally lost their mind and start blaming the deep state. 

[nnfox]

2 hours ago, Parafox said:

I know it's something they must do, but I wish the party leaders would refrain from doing "ordinary" things, like serving food at a charity kitchen or wearing a hard hat in a factory whilst talking to (patronising) the workers that have been told to get out there and play nice by senior management.

 

It makes them look what they are; out of touch with the general public.

I agree.  Stop posing for staged photo opportunities and just get on with explaining how you intend to actually do the serious job of running the country.

[Voll Blau]

"the deep state"

 

[Jon the Hat]

15 hours ago, Robo61 said:

Its supply and demand that determins price,  when tax is included in the price it has very little effect on the price to the consumer  Thought you of all people would understand that. 

Nice oversimplification there.  You don't think perhaps demand is impacted by people thinking they get to move without spending thousands on wasted tax?  This is why prices spiked with a limited time pause on SD.  Many potential movers dismiss the idea of moving due to SD costs before they are even in the market.  Most people in the market are also sellers, so if you take away the blocker of SD you increase both supply and demand, but remove the low supply price pressure thus likely creating a more fluid market with no discernable reason for upward prices pressure, Not that markets always act rationally of course. 

[lcfcbluearmy]

Labour win 

Majority 300

[ClaphamFox]

This is interestIng. He’s a complete liability so it won’t be a loss to Labour, but I wonder what they’ve got on him…

 

Lloyd Russel-Moyle suspended from party and prevented from standing in election

 

 

 

 

[adam1]

Small labour majority.

[fox_up_north]

Lib Dems to win all their remaining games of the season and stay up

[StanSP]

Labour shooting themselves in the foot with what they're doing to Shaheen. 

[fox_up_north]

15 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Labour shooting themselves in the foot with what they're doing to Shaheen. 

What's this then? Not popped up on the news

[StanSP]

5 minutes ago, fox_up_north said:

What's this then? Not popped up on the news

She liked a historical tweet (or few), has been canvassing relentlessly and has a good reputation in the constituency she represents, and has now been barred from standing for election by Labour. 

 

 

[jgtuk]

7 minutes ago, StanSP said:

She liked a historical tweet (or few), has been canvassing relentlessly and has a good reputation in the constituency she represents, and has now been barred from standing for election by Labour. 

 

 

She’s also one of the few left wingers not purged yet… 

[Daggers]

 

[The Doctor]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

She liked a historical tweet (or few), has been canvassing relentlessly and has a good reputation in the constituency she represents, and has now been barred from standing for election by Labour. 

 

 

the historical tweet in question was a video of a Jon Stewart sketch about how you can't say anything about Israel/Palestine without having the entirety of social media get pissed off at you... 

 

pretty obvious it's a pretext to get rid of left wing mps, particularly given they're suddenly suspending Russell-Moyle for a vexatious complaint from years ago (wonder whether they've stopped filtering complaints about Rosie Duffield into a folder to be deleted yet?)

[StanSP]

10 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

the historical tweet in question was a video of a Jon Stewart sketch about how you can't say anything about Israel/Palestine without having the entirety of social media get pissed off at you... 

 

pretty obvious it's a pretext to get rid of left wing mps, particularly given they're suddenly suspending Russell-Moyle for a vexatious complaint from years ago (wonder whether they've stopped filtering complaints about Rosie Duffield into a folder to be deleted yet?)

Yep. 

 

Yet this guy is drafted in too despite this kind of tweet...