Election prediction time

[StanSP]

Rishi still mentions tax in his statement

 

[Nick]

So half of Tory voters representing 20% of the total share voted elsewhere diluting their majority. Labour have only really gained a single percent - so it’s not like Tory voters have crossed over to Labour. The likes of Ed Davey didn’t need to do anything other than not talk politics and do Zumba and Bungee Jumping every day, appear a fun likeable people person and wait for the protest votes to come in. 

[kyleolly]

Shockat Adam visited Saffron lane and thought he was on the Gaza Strip 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

56% turnout is dreadful right? 

[Grebfromgrebland]

5 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

 

Said this earlier, these days it's really easy for a single issue to get magnified into a massive cause celebre.

 

Shame that isn't happening with the really biggest issues, right.

I know imagine the possibilities if people cared about poverty, the environment or actually wanted a better future for us all?

[DJ Barry Hammond]

30 minutes ago, Lionator said:

I don’t think FPTP survives another 10-20 years 

I agree - in fact it might be shorter lived than that given Nigel AND The Greens are likely to be very vocal on this issue now - and maybe the Lib Dems too.

 

[Dahnsouff]

1 minute ago, Nick said:

So half of Tory voters representing 20% of the total share voted elsewhere diluting their majority. Labour have only really gained a single percent - so it’s not like Tory voters have crossed over to Labour. The likes of Ed Davey didn’t need to do anything other than not talk politics and do Zumba and Bungee Jumping every day, appear a fun likeable people person and wait for the protest votes to come in. 

I hope Labour pay attention to these facts, as the 27% reduction in Tory votes in no meaningful way translated to Labour vote rises (+1.6%).

Next time they will need to try and stop the tide just coming back in on Tory votes, as it naturally will to some degree.

[surrifox]

14 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

Its a straight vote against the Government (deservedly so) I mean just look at the swings in the voting share

And in 5 years time when this lot have failed to bring in anything but further decline , the country will turn to Farage and his loonies as their saviour 

[Free Falling Foxes]

3 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

56% turnout is dreadful right? 

I think the turnout amongst Muslim voters especially, would have been far, far higher.

Starmer was right; he was worried complacency amongst Labour voters due to the polls showing a massive Labour lead, could affect things.

It has in Leicester South.

[Dahnsouff]

Just now, surrifox said:

And in 5 years time when this lot have failed to bring in anything but further decline , the country will turn to Farage and his loonies as their saviour 

Yup, then we can finally have our "Build-A-(Sea)Wall" project

[leicsmac]

8 minutes ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

I know imagine the possibilities if people cared about poverty, the environment or actually wanted a better future for us all?

It's not just a moral stance either. It's simply pragmatic. If you like civilisation the way it is, you think of and set policy for the future, not just the present.

 

1 minute ago, surrifox said:

And in 5 years time when this lot have failed to bring in anything but further decline , the country will turn to Farage and his loonies as their saviour 

Again a repeat, but next time Reform will either get 0 seats or enough to set policy. It won't be in between.

[st albans fox]

five years ago we looked at Boris’ 80 seat majority and mused that the tories had at least two terms ahead of them 

 

last nights double than that labour majority looks potentially very porous - it’s difficult to draw many conclusions from the results. Low turnout and split votes/tactical voting together with extremely targeted campaining would make you nervous to predict where a large chunk of those seats will be in 2029. 
 

starmer simply has to make people feel better off - both financially and mentally 

 

otherwise I reckon he’ll struggle to hang onto a majority next time.  

[Zear0]

 

 

[Devonfox1884]

49 minutes ago, ozleicester said:

Correct me if im wrong.... but at 14% of votes... Reform are the third most popular party in the UK? 

Yep, clearly it hasn’t translated into seats, but that is the case.

[Torquay Gunner]

Well done Lib Dems and Greens,  but very disappointed that our smug Tory held on to his seat by his fingertips (124 seats from Labour!). Low voter turnout continues to be a problem.  When will they change? 

[The Doctor]

19 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

 

Said this earlier, these days it's really easy for a single issue to get magnified into a massive cause celebre.

 

Shame that isn't happening with the really biggest issues, right.

 

I mean, you could very reasonably argue that an ongoing genocide done in public with the support of the British and US governments is a huge issue...

 

1 minute ago, Torquay Gunner said:

Well done Lib Dems and Greens,  but very disappointed that our smug Tory held on to his seat by his fingertips (124 seats from Labour!). Low voter turnout continues to be a problem.  When will they change? 

probably when people have something to vote for, to be enthusiastic for, rather than just to vote against

[StriderHiryu]

28 minutes ago, AjcW said:

Can’t really moan much at the Tory football chants can we  stick out like a sore thumb as you scroll down the constituency list. 
 

I only really come back for the football these days. But it’s hard to understand how it’s a city that’s still so blinded to vote Tory when you look at the state of some of it.

 

Even the parties that have had an impact elsewhere haven’t got anywhere near in Leicestershire. 

It’s thoroughly depressing looking at the Leicester results! And I’m not talking about the football!

[RowlattsFox]

Looking forward to all our issues now being removed under Labour 

 

I'm joking of course, it will take time to see effect (if any). I'm pretty open with politics and generally it just happens to me, rather than me taking an active interest in policies. However I've lived most of my adult life, certainly the years where I've had to start paying bills, buying a house and raising a family, under conservative rule so I'm interested to see how things change. 

 

Easy to stand and criticise government from the opposition, so over to you Kier. 

 

I did the count last night, fortunately didn't go on as late as the bi-election a few weeks ago. The count agents are always a good laugh, take their clipboard jobs so seriously and some of them look exactly how you'd expect a politics wannabe to look  

[Guest Chocolate Teapot]

23 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

 

Said this earlier, these days it's really easy for a single issue to get magnified into a massive cause celebre.

 

Shame that isn't happening with the really biggest issues, right.

It's simplistic answers to complicated problems. I honestly think we've reduced life down to little sound bites that answer everything when the reality is it's really ****ing complicated.

 

It's prat with podcasts like Jake Humphrey that I blame tbh.

[Aus Fox]

Our city is blue, our city is blue….

 

[NasPb]

Anyone expecting massive changes is going to be set up for a rude awakening. Both tories and conservatives follow tje same economic line of policies tl different degrees. Happy the tories lost but without truly radical economic and social policies to tack inequality , privatizations and more much more ambitious policies must be done. We'll see. 

[Free Falling Foxes]

34 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

 

Said this earlier, these days it's really easy for a single issue to get magnified into a massive cause celebre.

 

Shame that isn't happening with the really biggest issues, right.

 

27 minutes ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

I know imagine the possibilities if people cared about poverty, the environment or actually wanted a better future for us all?

When Suella Braverman said that multiculturalism has failed, Ashworth appeared on BBC's Question time that week arguing that Leicester was a shining example of that NOT being the case.

However, every example he gave merely demonstrated that yes, all groups are represented here BUT all the examples of festivals ect that are celebrated here are very largely, only celebrated by fully signed-up members of that group - there is no integration.

And now, we've had Muslims and Hindus at each others throats in Leicester over issues in India and a sitting Labour MP ousted over Gaza.

I've even read Ashworth was chased from a street by a group of Muslims whilst canvassing

 

Their loyalties and hearts do not reside in Leicester or the UK I'm afraid.

I worry this divide will grow.

Edited 5 July by Free Falling Foxes

[NasPb]

20 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

 

I mean, you could very reasonably argue that an ongoing genocide done in public with the support of the British and US governments is a huge issue...

 

probably when people have something to vote for, to be enthusiastic for, rather than just to vote against

Since it's a genocide happening "far away" most liberals don't care. And plus their ally is who's doing the killing. 

[Rain King]

5 minutes ago, NasPb said:

Anyone expecting massive changes is going to be set up for a rude awakening. Both tories and conservatives follow tje same economic line of policies tl different degrees. Happy the tories lost but without truly radical economic and social policies to tack inequality , privatizations and more much more ambitious policies must be done. We'll see. 

 

Be a bit weird if they didn't but I wouldn't put it past them.

[StanSP]

On 22/05/2024 at 18:03, StanSP said:

 

Got it close! 5 out.