Election prediction time

[Lako42]

19 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

 

 

Easy to stand and criticise government from the opposition, so over to you Kier. 

 

 

It certainly has been recently, obviously. 

[kingfox]

Waking up to see Liz Truss and Jacob Rees-Mogg have lost their seats

[goody2028]

 

[Benguin]

I hope this doesn’t come across as salty. Im not salty, I’m not even that disappointed, I don’t personally think Labour will do a good job but I felt the same about every other party but….

 

This will be remembered as the rise of the Labour party and collapse of conservatives. The latter is definitely true but the former is actually up for debate. 
 

Don’t get me wrong, Labour have won an absolute landslide and there is no getting away from that but there’s share of votes has not gone up that much.

 

Labours rise is less about people putting their confidence in them and more about people having a lack of confidence in the tories. Whilst they have a clear mandate in terms of seats, I don’t think they have the mandate in terms of public opinion and we are about to see the rise of the Reform party.

 

All imo

[Fox in the North]

40 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

five years ago we looked at Boris’ 80 seat majority and mused that the tories had at least two terms ahead of them 

 

last nights double than that labour majority looks potentially very porous - it’s difficult to draw many conclusions from the results. Low turnout and split votes/tactical voting together with extremely targeted campaining would make you nervous to predict where a large chunk of those seats will be in 2029. 
 

starmer simply has to make people feel better off - both financially and mentally 

 

otherwise I reckon he’ll struggle to hang onto a majority next time.  

To be honest, depending on what happens in the rest of the world, if he/Labour has a solid but unspectacular term then that would still surely be a big plus compared to

the last decade?

[StanSP]

She's proper batshit. 

 

 

[Sly]

4 minutes ago, Benguin said:

I hope this doesn’t come across as salty. Im not salty, I’m not even that disappointed, I don’t personally think Labour will do a good job but I felt the same about every other party but….

 

This will be remembered as the rise of the Labour party and collapse of conservatives. The latter is definitely true but the former is actually up for debate. 
 

Don’t get me wrong, Labour have won an absolute landslide and there is no getting away from that but there’s share of votes has not gone up that much.

 

Labours rise is less about people putting their confidence in them and more about people having a lack of confidence in the tories. Whilst they have a clear mandate in terms of seats, I don’t think they have the mandate in terms of public opinion and we are about to see the rise of the Reform party.

 

All imo

I understand what you’re saying. 
 

The conservatives have damaged themselves.

 

Labour actually have less votes in this election, than Corbyn got I believe. 

[Mark_w]

Just now, Sly said:

I understand what you’re saying. 
 

The conservatives have damaged themselves.

 

Labour actually have less votes in this election, than Corbyn got I believe. 

Just a shame Corbyn got the Conservatives so many votes as well

[DJ Barry Hammond]

2 minutes ago, Fox in the North said:

To be honest, depending on what happens in the rest of the world, if he/Labour has a solid but unspectacular term then that would still surely be a big plus compared to

the last decade?

I agree, I don’t think Labour have to do much to secure opinion - slowly fix stuff and don’t score too many own goals.

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, FoxesWalk said:

I’ve never seen so much single issue voting in one election. Whether it over Gaza or Small Boats, it’s had a big impact.

2019 was the biggest single issue election ever, but you're certainly right about it being distilled down into a constituency-by-constituency basis here.

 

I do wonder how much AI has allowed the more successful parties to game the system in this election. Targeted social media voting clearly had no effect for the Tories.

[leicsmac]

27 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

 

I mean, you could very reasonably argue that an ongoing genocide done in public with the support of the British and US governments is a huge issue...

Not as huge as the one already killing a lot of people through drought and extreme weather around the world and only just starting to be felt in terms of consequences. You know that as well as I do. 

 

23 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

It's simplistic answers to complicated problems. I honestly think we've reduced life down to little sound bites that answer everything when the reality is it's really ****ing complicated.

 

It's prat with podcasts like Jake Humphrey that I blame tbh.

Welcome to the digital era, mon ami - for good and bad.

 

19 minutes ago, Free Falling Foxes said:

 

When Suella Braverman said that multiculturalism has failed, Ashworth appeared on BBC's Question time that week arguing that Leicester was a shining example of that NOT being the case.

However, every example he gave merely demonstrated that yes, all groups are represented here BUT all the examples of festivals ect that are celebrated here are very largely, only celebrated by fully signed-up members of that group - there is no integration.

And now, we've had Muslims and Hindus at each others throats in Leicester over issues in India and a sitting Labour MP ousted over Gaza.

I've even read Ashworth was chased from a street by a group of Muslims whilst canvassing

 

Their loyalties and hearts do not reside in Leicester or the UK I'm afraid.

I worry this divide will grow.

I'm reminded of the book Thud!  by Terry Pratchett, it covers multiple-way ethnic divides like this really well.

[CosbehFox]

10 minutes ago, Benguin said:

I hope this doesn’t come across as salty. Im not salty, I’m not even that disappointed, I don’t personally think Labour will do a good job but I felt the same about every other party but….

 

This will be remembered as the rise of the Labour party and collapse of conservatives. The latter is definitely true but the former is actually up for debate. 
 

Don’t get me wrong, Labour have won an absolute landslide and there is no getting away from that but there’s share of votes has not gone up that much.

 

Labours rise is less about people putting their confidence in them and more about people having a lack of confidence in the tories. Whilst they have a clear mandate in terms of seats, I don’t think they have the mandate in terms of public opinion and we are about to see the rise of the Reform party.

 

All imo

I don’t think ardent Labour supporters will think that. St Albans summed it up superbly a few pages back - it’s a government what looks less secure than a 80 seat Tory majority 
 

There’s a huge amount of division as evidence by the most widespread, different voting patterns seen in my lifetime. 

[leicsmac]

11 minutes ago, Benguin said:

I hope this doesn’t come across as salty. Im not salty, I’m not even that disappointed, I don’t personally think Labour will do a good job but I felt the same about every other party but….

 

This will be remembered as the rise of the Labour party and collapse of conservatives. The latter is definitely true but the former is actually up for debate. 
 

Don’t get me wrong, Labour have won an absolute landslide and there is no getting away from that but there’s share of votes has not gone up that much.

 

Labours rise is less about people putting their confidence in them and more about people having a lack of confidence in the tories. Whilst they have a clear mandate in terms of seats, I don’t think they have the mandate in terms of public opinion and we are about to see the rise of the Reform party.

 

All imo

I can see where you're coming from here.

 

The next five years may well be critical in the direction of the next five decades. Or longer.

 

Or not at all - I guess we'll find out.

 

1 minute ago, Voll Blau said:

 

I do wonder how much AI has allowed the more successful parties to game the system in this election. Targeted social media voting clearly had no effect for the Tories.

The effect of digital information dissemination on voting is going to be a thesis level topic for every election to come, I think. It's become critical.

[Muzzy_no7]

Proportional representation needs to play more of a part in the 650 seats. 
 

 

[DJ Barry Hammond]

4 minutes ago, Sly said:

I understand what you’re saying. 
 

The conservatives have damaged themselves.

 

Labour actually have less votes in this election, than Corbyn got I believe. 

I’d have to check the results, but wasn’t the Corbyn elections essentially two horse races?
 

If I remember correctly Farage stood down his Brexit party candidates, the Lib Dems were useless - partly caused by Labour contesting their stronger areas - and turnout was no doubt higher too.

[urban.spaceman]

10 minutes ago, StanSP said:

She's proper batshit. 

 

 

I demand she gets her own show on Sunday nights on C4. 

[Foxin_Mad]

Its important that Labour deliver their manifesto and keep promises else they will give rise to the far right!

[Nalis]

14 minutes ago, Benguin said:

I hope this doesn’t come across as salty. Im not salty, I’m not even that disappointed, I don’t personally think Labour will do a good job but I felt the same about every other party but….

 

This will be remembered as the rise of the Labour party and collapse of conservatives. The latter is definitely true but the former is actually up for debate. 
 

Don’t get me wrong, Labour have won an absolute landslide and there is no getting away from that but there’s share of votes has not gone up that much.

 

Labours rise is less about people putting their confidence in them and more about people having a lack of confidence in the tories. Whilst they have a clear mandate in terms of seats, I don’t think they have the mandate in terms of public opinion and we are about to see the rise of the Reform party.

 

All imo

The collapse of the main parties is often overstated. It wasn't that long ago people were saying Labour weren't fit for purpose in modern times. 

 

Can't see anything other than Labour or Tory governments in my lifetime.

[urban.spaceman]

Landslide for Nadine with 40% of the batshit. 

 

 

[urban.spaceman]

Worrying.

 

 

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

 

Said this earlier, these days it's really easy for a single issue to get magnified into a massive cause celebre.

 

Shame that isn't happening with the really biggest issues, right.

Yeh exactly the 2 biggest issues of our time and the ones that should be debated endlessly by the parties and dominating any election right now are climate change and population ageing

 

But apart from Reform claiming net zero is a scam in some small section in the middle of their manifesto that he barely got questioned on, neither topic ever got any discussion at all, it’s depressing. 
 

[Muzzy_no7]

Ooo just clocked George Galloway has been kicked out, great news. 

[Facecloth]

[urban.spaceman]

 

 

[goody2028]

Ed Davey has had the campaign of his life hasn’t he. Bloke has just been on a six week long stag do and won 71 seats.