Election prediction time

[Wolfox]

23 minutes ago, Sly said:

 

The conservatives have damaged themselves.

I’m not and ever could be a Tory,  but this worries me…

 

The one nation moderates, (the party of Ken Clarke) could well be drowned out by the Braverman/ Farage mob…. A huge lurch to the right could destroy the traditional Conservative Party…. That vote (I pray) is only ever likely to poll below 25%…. Leaves a massive vacuum in the centre right…. And as the Lib Dems appear (in policy) to be left of Starmer, how is this all going to pan out…?

 

I find it hard to say this,  but I hope, for the sanity of British democracy, that they make some sensible moves and entrust a moderate, centrist one nation Tory to lead them… 

[DJ Barry Hammond]

6 minutes ago, goody2028 said:

Ed Davey has had the campaign of his life hasn’t he. Bloke has just been on a six week long stag do and won 71 seats. 

 
Yeah, I think this is the missed story of the election at the moment.

 

Yes, Farage has done amazing things in terms of vote share and will understandably get coverage given our right leaning press…

 

But you have to say how the Lib Dem’s have converted their vote share to seats is really impressive.

[Paninistickers]

2 hours ago, danny. said:

I’m in Leicester south, huge amount of Muslims here. Go down Welford Road on a Friday when everyone is out for prayers. You can hear the call for prayer in Knighton some Fridays.
 

There were Muslims outside of all the polling stations near me trying to get people to vote for Adam as they went in, he ran a pretty intense campaign. Shame for the people of Leicester South as he doesn’t seem interested in Leicester South. Along with the Green candidate here the campaign was all about Gaza, which I’m not sure a UK MP will be about to help with or affect. 

Yes, I'd left Welford Road out as that's clearly Mosque heavy now.  But just felt that was one ward.

 

Stoneygate has Asians, but not necessarily muslim.

 

The rest of south Leicester is white af

[David Hankey]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

The next five years are going to be interesting.

 

This election (and world events between the last one and this) has shown how drastically change can come in the digital era. 

"Going to be interesting", yes but will things improve and be seen to improve. I doubt it.

[Dahnsouff]

70% turnout in Wokingham - surprisingly high 

[goody2028]

Talks a good game this SNP chap

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, David Hankey said:

"Going to be interesting", yes but will things improve and be seen to improve. I doubt it.

Well, yes. There's a reason the Chinese use "interesting" as a curse rather than a benediction.

 

The right path forward stands on very thin ice, I would think. But I think others believe that for different reasons to the ones I have.

[Zear0]

25 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Worrying.

 

 

Said it before and I'll say it again. The far left are as vicious, hateful and dangerous as the far right. Extremism needs tackling at both ends of the spectrum. 

[Dames]

2 minutes ago, David Hankey said:

"Going to be interesting", yes but will things improve and be seen to improve. I doubt it.

Its like people have this weird amnesia in terms of how much better public services were in 97-10 than they are now. 
 

Things will improve like they did last time but unfortunately like last time immigration will play a huge role and swing people back to the right after years of gaslighting and propaganda. 

[Foxdiamond]

5 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

Yes, I'd left Welford Road out as that's clearly Mosque heavy now.  But just felt that was one ward.

 

Stoneygate has Asians, but not necessarily muslim.

 

The rest of south Leicester is white af

Is this a case of too many people not bothering to vote?

[EnderbyFox]

First day in power & Starmer has already got the weather machine set to rain

 

 

[Bert]

6 hours ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

Probably @Bert’s fault for not voting 😂

I did vote. But I’m Leicester west anyway friend 

[Paninistickers]

5 minutes ago, Foxdiamond said:

Is this a case of too many people not bothering to vote?

Very good point 

[goody2028]

[BenTheFox]

Labour received more votes in 2019, their worst result since 1935 than they have in this election, where they've won their second largest majority in history. It's actually crazy. 

[OntarioFox]

47 minutes ago, Muzzy_no7 said:

Proportional representation needs to play more of a part in the 650 seats. 

Going to be a huge push for it now, especially from a resurgent Lib Dems and with Reform's big percentage and tiny seat count.

Like others have said, Labour's big win is pretty porous behind the headline figure (so many seats won on a knife-edge, and a lot of previous supporters bled to independents, Greens and I guess some batshit-crazy Hindu Tories in Leicester East). Literally as I wrote this, they won Poole by 18 votes!

That said, the Tories are almost certainly going from here into a civil war with Reform, which is never going to win over the more centrist voters they need to win elections. Starmer isn't stupid - he knew that they are the ones that give you power, and that it really doesn't matter if you get 30% or 40%, as long as that core 10-15% in the centre chooses you. And they are far, far more bothered about real life (the cost of living, the NHS, housing supply and mortgages etc.) than they are about dog-whistle politics, "woke" distractions and foreign affairs that we ultimately have no sway on. For as long as they continue to navel-gaze and chase the right wing, they will never gain power again - not least with the ongoing demographic shift in the country which is slowly but surely seeing their traditional base, who are sticking their fingers in their ears and voting for them because it's all they know, literally die off.

 

My prediction is - next election, this big majority falls back to either a very small one or a hung parliament. Even in the former case, you'll have parties on both sides calling for the system to change, and depending on polling Labour could see it as the only way to extend their time in government. In the latter case, the junior partner in whatever coalition they form will almost certainly demand a referendum in PR (or AV again), and we'll probably see the population vote in favour this time with voices on the right also backing its introduction.

 

Regardless, last night I think we finally saw the first few nails in the coffin of FPTP. The days of Theresa May squawking about "StROnG aND sTAbLE" government seem a long time ago indeed. We're now in a 5-party system, with a few independents thrown in to further complicate matters.

 

Edited 5 July by OntarioFox

[westernpark]

2 hours ago, Paninistickers said:

Leicester East I can understand having a big Muslim vote - and extraordinarily given to the Tories...but Leicester South?!

 

Where tf has that come from?  Stoneygate? Aylestone? The Saff? 

Some of Aykestone moved into Leicester West this time around. You have Highfields, Evington and part of St Matthews in Leicester South.

[David Hankey]

Staggeringly 6.5K folk voted for UKIP and 5.8K for the Monster Raving Looney Party!!

[SemperEadem]

 

[David Hankey]

2 hours ago, Paninistickers said:

Leicester East I can understand having a big Muslim vote - and extraordinarily given to the Tories...but Leicester South?!

 

Where tf has that come from?  Stoneygate? Aylestone? The Saff? 

Simply because Ashworth is an obnoxious individual full of his own self-importance and utter knob.

[westernpark]

1 minute ago, SemperEadem said:

 

Very sad, the Leicester West boundary goes up to the Freemen’s Meadow complex and stops at the Soar.

[Raj]

1 hour ago, kyleolly said:

Shockat Adam visited Saffron lane and thought he was on the Gaza Strip 

He will be in for a rude awakening when he has to help his non Muslim constituents on non Gaza related issues and he hasn't got a scooby doo...

[westernpark]

1 minute ago, Raj said:

He will be in for a rude awakening when he has to help his non Muslim constituents on non Gaza related issues and he hasn't got a scooby doo...

What did he do prior to this? What’s his background?

[David Hankey]

Total UK electorate = 48.2M

 

Turnout was 60% which means 40% did not bother to vote, that's an awful lot of people.

[Raj]

3 minutes ago, westernpark said:

What did he do prior to this? What’s his background?

 

About Me – Shockat Adam

 

 

"serves the community Through my award-winning optical practice"

Edited 5 July by Raj