Election prediction time

[Sampson]

Personally I think the opposite of what’s said above and think way too many people vote for short-term National and local issues  over the long-term global issues which are the actual profound issues that will affect how we, our children and grandchildren will all live. 
 

Climate change and population ageing will affect all of our, our children’s and grandchildren’s lives far more than debates about taxes and immigration.

Edited 5 July by Sampson

[CosbehFox]

36 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

Never understand why the right is always clubbed together but the 'left' which seems far more suited to me in terms of the lib dems and Labour isn't. GB news seem to be pushing this as some sort of gotcha agenda but I don't think it is.

 

I think you're just making the point that support is steady though?

Just making the point it suggests Reform’s ‘success’ is less about a surging turn to the right like Europe but more of the same, Reform taking votes from Tories. 

[Vacamion]

 

14% those Fashbasts got.

 

1 in 7.

 

I mean, I didn't really like people much before this vote, but at least now I have an excuse.

 

 

 

 

[CosbehFox]

5 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Personally I think the opposite of what’s said above and think way too many people vote for short-term National and local issues  over the long-term global issues which are the actual profound issues that will affect how we, our children and grandchildren will all live. 
 

Climate change and population will affect all of our, our children’s and grandchildren’s lives far more than debates about taxes and immigration.

It’s the crippling part of politics. 
 

Short term reactive policy with no after thought to long term implications. 
 

A lot of the problems are tied together. It’s likely a leaking roof - you fix one hole, it pours stronger through another. Just fix it properly 

[Izzy]

Not sure if this has been posted before and a couple of weeks old now.

Quite impressed with what Starmer has to say. He talks well when he’s relaxed.

 

 

[Torquay Gunner]

10 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Personally I think the opposite of what’s said above and think way too many people vote for short-term National and local issues  over the long-term global issues which are the actual profound issues that will affect how we, our children and grandchildren will all live. 
 

Climate change and population ageing will affect all of our, our children’s and grandchildren’s lives far more than debates about taxes and immigration.

A lot of people don’t have children or grandchildren, so only concern themselves with the here and now.  Selfish possibly, but logical from their point of view. 

[Sampson]

41 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

Never understand why the right is always clubbed together but the 'left' which seems far more suited to me in terms of the lib dems and Labour isn't. GB news seem to be pushing this as some sort of gotcha agenda but I don't think it is.

 

I think you're just making the point that support is steady though?

I agree that Labour and LibDem are probably closer together than Tories and Reform right now. 

 

I do wonder if one of the big stories is that LibDems have played this election really well actually. They’re back to their pre-2015 wipeout levels in terms of seats again and have made themselves look like they can win seats and are not just a wasted vote again. Feels like they’ve shaken off a lot of the tuition fees scarring.
 

As Labour start canvassing the centre-right vote, I wonder if LibDems will pivot towards trying to catch the middle class, university educated left for the next election. 

[David Hankey]

Starmer share of the vote in his constituency of Holborn & St Pancras was down nearly 17.5% since 2019. 

 

He has a lot of work to there and nationally.

[CosbehFox]

1 minute ago, Sampson said:

I agree that Labour and LibDem are probably closer together than Tories and Reform right now. 

 

I do wonder if one of the big stories is that LibDems have played this election really well actually. They’re back to their pre-2015 wipeout levels in terms of seats again and have made themselves look like they can win seats and are not just a wasted vote again. Feels like they’ve shaken off a lot of the tuition fees scarring.
 

As Labour start canvassing the centre-right vote, I wonder if LibDems will pivot towards trying to catch the middle class, university educated left for the next election. 

In terms of tactics both LibDems and Labour played it well, target the seats not the votes. Use the system well. 
 

LibDems success down south can be attributed to the growing pattern of younger people moving away from cities and into towns/county regions. Basically the Millennial getting grown up and from a background of a Labour childhood 
 

Some fascinating trends developing. 

[Lionator]

2 minutes ago, David Hankey said:

Starmer share of the vote in his constituency of Holborn & St Pancras was down nearly 17.5% since 2019. 

 

He has a lot of work to there and nationally.

It’s because apparently the leader of the opposition in a random country in Western Europe was unable to stop a war in a contested land with 2000 years of violent, disputed history. Really shameful by Starmer. 

[Voll Blau]

90% of the new cabinet are state-educated.

 

About time.

[Raj]

46 minutes ago, David Hankey said:

What will Labour do for the people of Gaza?

Why SHOULD labour do anything for the people of Gaza?

I'm more bothered about the sh1t roads on uppingham road and it being a tip rather than somewhere thousands of miles away in a dispute that hasnt been resolved in 100 plus years.

 

[OntarioFox]

45 minutes ago, Lako42 said:

I don't know and I don't really care seeing as that isn't why I voted for them. 

 

My question is more aimed at those Leicester areas who voted the conservatives in apparently because of Gaza.

 

What have the party that have been in power during the conflict so far done for the people of Gaza to make them vote that way? 

Bit of a misnomer - the main reason the Tories have risen in that area is due to their shameless exploitation of the community tensions between Hindus and Muslims, which the appalling politics of the past 14 years has helped manifest. True to their nasty slide into identity politics, they've managed to effectively brainwash a decent chunk of Hindu voters into thinking they're on their side in the whole debacle. It's legitimately the only demographic in the entire country to turn towards them in recent years. I think the term is "useful idiots".

There are few, if any, Muslim supporters of the Tories in Leicester East. Rather, the fallout over Gaza and the shameless re-standing of Vaz and Webbe has split a vote which in any other scenario would have had a Labour MP returned. Instead, the fools who have somehow concluded that the horrible outgoing party "have their back" have managed to elect them in the vacuum of any serious challenge.

Edited 5 July by OntarioFox

[leicsmac]

24 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Personally I think the opposite of what’s said above and think way too many people vote for short-term National and local issues  over the long-term global issues which are the actual profound issues that will affect how we, our children and grandchildren will all live. 
 

Climate change and population ageing will affect all of our, our children’s and grandchildren’s lives far more than debates about taxes and immigration.

 

17 minutes ago, CosbehFox said:

It’s the crippling part of politics. 
 

Short term reactive policy with no after thought to long term implications. 
 

A lot of the problems are tied together. It’s likely a leaking roof - you fix one hole, it pours stronger through another. Just fix it properly 

Pretty much - to say nothing of the fact that such bigger issues directly affect "smaller" ones like tax and immigration anyway. They affect everything.

 

13 minutes ago, Torquay Gunner said:

A lot of people don’t have children or grandchildren, so only concern themselves with the here and now.  Selfish possibly, but logical from their point of view. 

I'm not sure how logical it is given if you're under the age of 45 you're likely to feel those effects in full before the end of your life, and IMO even if self interest were my guiding star I would be thinking of all my life, not just one small part of it.

 

Such thinking can only be ruinous.

[Lako42]

Can anyone clarify this KP being in Tory land? 

 

 

The constituency map shows it as south Leicester 

[FoxyPV]

FPTP is not fit for purpose 

[mcbfox]

5 hours ago, goose2010 said:

Not shocked but disappointed that Hinckley and Bosworth stayed Tory. 

 

Lib Dems didn't really even come close in the end mainly due to the fact that nearly 9k voted Reform. If they had all voted lib dem it would have got the Tory's out. 

 

 

 

It didn't help that nearly all the tactical voting sites said labour was the choice to get rid of the Tories, having canvassed and delivered for 6 weeks they were never going to do anything here to challenge the tories

[David Hankey]

11 minutes ago, Raj said:

Why SHOULD labour do anything for the people of Gaza?

I'm more bothered about the sh1t roads on uppingham road and it being a tip rather than somewhere thousands of miles away in a dispute that hasnt been resolved in 100 plus years.

 

I'm not saying they should. If you read the various posts I was only replying to the question "what have the Conservatives done for Gaza?"

[David Hankey]

13 minutes ago, Raj said:

Why SHOULD labour do anything for the people of Gaza?

I'm more bothered about the sh1t roads on uppingham road and it being a tip rather than somewhere thousands of miles away in a dispute that hasnt been resolved in 100 plus years.

 

And the shit roads around Uppingham and the rest of the UK will still be in the same condition next year and probably in 5 years time.

[st albans fox]

keir congratulates rishi for being south Asian ….

 

 

[Lako42]

1 minute ago, David Hankey said:

And the shit roads around Uppingham and the rest of the UK will still be in the same condition next year and probably in 5 years time.

Are they banning cars? 

[st albans fox]

6 minutes ago, FoxyPV said:

FPTP is not fit for purpose 

What were the 2019 and 2017 numbers ? 
 

tbh, it doesn’t matter if the majority is 180 or 100 

FPTP usually delivers majorities and that is supposed to bring stable govt 😀

 

[FoxyPV]

14 minutes ago, Raj said:

Why SHOULD labour do anything for the people of Gaza?

I'm more bothered about the sh1t roads on uppingham road and it being a tip rather than somewhere thousands of miles away in a dispute that hasnt been resolved in 100 plus years.

 

They don't need to do an awful lot.

 

Condemn Israeli actions

Implement sanctions

Stop peddling Israeli propaganda 

Stop selling arms to a regime actively committing genocide

 

If labour had said what was happening in Gaza was out of order, in the blandest terms, they wouldn't have lost as much support 

[Mickyblueeyes]

I’ve criticised him a lot throughout this campaign. Not really heard anything which resonates from him.

 

But that was a good speech. Quite refreshing. Especially when you think the last two we have had from Sunak have been pretty bad.  

[FoxyPV]

Just now, st albans fox said:

What were the 2019 and 2017 numbers ? 
 

tbh, it doesn’t matter if the majority is 180 or 100 

FPTP usually delivers majorities and that is supposed to bring stable govt 😀

 

Lol the last 5 years have been super stable......

 

Politics is meant to be representative not a tyranny of the minority.

 

I love that Tories and Reform got shafted but FPTP creates adversarial rather than collegiate politics.

 

PR has to come in