Election prediction time

[Foxdiamond]

34 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

no, vote share is what matters here. if it was a change in labour and starting to appeal to more people, the vote share should have significantly jumped. it's remained static because this landslide isn't driven by more people wanting this labour government, it's driven by the collapse of the tories. you point out the surge of reform, however that is something I've already addressed - the tories haemorrhaged votes to them, and other tories stayed home because of this iteration of them. the idea that the low turn out was actually labour supporters who felt so comfortable that they didn't need to vote for the party not in power is ridiculous copium.

 

what labour have got is a sandcastle majority, no foundations and will be washed away the moment the tide changes, because the voting data indicates that this landslide is ultimately because people wanted to give the tories a good kicking and labour just happened to be there. this shouldn't be a controversial take, it's literally what John Curtice was saying last night and labour would be well served by showing a degree of humility and heeding it if they want more than 1 term in government 

During my lifetime I've had a gut full of the Tories. For now I just want to reflect that with this huge majority the prospect of them making a early return is nought.

[MattFox]

Leicester electing a Tory for the first time in 40 years in an election they got smashed is going to be a question on tv quiz shows for years to come

[Grebfromgrebland]

 

This is the kind of appointment we need to see. People who have relevant experience and knowledge of the department they are running. 

 

This concept seems so alien compared the f<cking Tory wanking shítty jobs for mates who know f all about anything but just happened to go to the right school.

 

[Sampson]

Thank **** for that. Tens of millions of tax payer money we can save from a gimmicky policy that everyone on earth knew wasn’t even feasible 

 

 

Edited 5 July by Sampson

[kenny]

1 hour ago, CosbehFox said:

Really happy with that cabinet. Direct experience to roles. Timpson’s appointment in particular feels really correct 

It certainly favours a particular demographic....

[Sampson]

1 minute ago, kenny said:

It certainly favours a particular demographic....

People who didn’t go to Oxbridge?

[RoboFox]

2 hours ago, Wymsey said:

Where did it go wrong for Sunak?

 

Felt like him not focusing on poverty/the poor enough wasn't a good aspect.

Probably easier to list where it didn’t go wrong for him TBH.

[Lionator]

6 minutes ago, kenny said:

It certainly favours a particular demographic....

People who believe in rehabilitation and turning prisons into places to reintegrate people into society thus costing the taxpayer less money? 

[Lionator]

Not a single EPL or football league club has a Tory MP now 

[kenny]

8 minutes ago, Sampson said:

People who didn’t go to Oxbridge?

There would be more diversity of they had all gone to Oxbridge.

[Grebfromgrebland]

10 minutes ago, kenny said:

It certainly favours a particular demographic....

Which one, I'd have though this world be good for society as a whole. 

 

 

[Sampson]

Just now, kenny said:

There would be more diversity of they had all gone to Oxbridge.

I’m genuinely confused at what you’re getting at. Not even being glib but can’t even work out what you’re chatting about.

[Izzy]

From the late 80's to mid 00's I could pretty much reel off who was in each of the top cabinet jobs.

 

I think one of the reasons I became so disengaged with politics since then is the constant change in positions and lack of consistency. There's been so much flip flopping of cabinet ministers that it's all become a buggers muddle.

 

Unless they seriously fvck up, I really hope this new cabinet get to see out a full term in their respective roles.

 

Give them time and support to implement the right things and don't tinker with it all too much.

 

A bit of normality and stability wouldn't go amiss for the next 5 years.

[kenny]

1 minute ago, Sampson said:

I’m genuinely confused at what you’re getting at. Not even being glib but can’t even work out what you’re chatting about.

It's just a shame that whilst the previous parliament was representative of society in the UK the current one isn't.

 

Feels like a step back for the labour party.

 

I am sure that SKS will improve this in the future, he has 5 years after all.

[grobyfox1990]

3 hours ago, The Doctor said:

come off it, last nights results are a complete repudiation of that. labours vote share basically remained unmoved from 2019, the difference between a historic defeat and a landslide was nothing to do with any changes Starmer made and everything to do with reform splitting the Tory vote and Tories generally staying home. as to why, that was because the press no longer felt the need to prop up the Tories and so they collapsed under a mountain of scandals. now, I don't think even his wildest critics could claim that Corbyn is responsible for media regulation in this country 

Whatever the ifs and buts of it, starmer has taken the Labour Party from near irrelevance in 2019 under corbyn, to a historic majority in 2024. Opinion is one thing but that is a fact.

Similar to djimi traore winning a champions league. You can argue all you want about how and why. But he won a champions league 

[The Doctor]

54 minutes ago, Dunge said:

While I agree in part, people felt able to give the Conservatives a kicking. Labour’s voters in this election aren’t as inspired by Starmer as many of Labour’s voters were inspired by Corbyn at the last election, but they have picked up votes off the Conservatives that wouldn’t have gone there otherwise (including mine) * and they haven’t had people actively voting against them to keep their leader out (which I would have done).

 

Corbyn was polarising. Some loved him and still do. To me he was and remains toxic.

 

 

*They’ve also lost votes on the left but it hasn’t hurt them overall.

eh, id disagree on that. there are reasons why people wanted to give the tories a kicking that wouldn't have happened under Corbyns labour, which mostly relate to how the press stopped propping the tories up once the opposition had been made safe (Teflon Boris turning out to not be so Teflon after all), but ultimately labour did not win the election so much as the tories lost it. labour stood still from their worst defeat and watched the SNP and Tories gnaw their own arms off 

[Zear0]

24 minutes ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

 

This is the kind of appointment we need to see. People who have relevant experience and knowledge of the department they are running. 

 

This concept seems so alien compared the f<cking Tory wanking shítty jobs for mates who know f all about anything but just happened to go to the right school.

 

Key appointment... 

[Sampson]

3 minutes ago, kenny said:

It's just a shame that whilst the previous parliament was representative of society in the UK the current one isn't.

 

Feels like a step back for the labour party.

 

I am sure that SKS will improve this in the future, he has 5 years after all.

Again, I have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about repeating this vague coded language. Why not just say which demographic you think it favours?

Edited 5 July by Sampson

[kenny]

Just now, Sampson said:

Again, I have  idea what you’re talking about repeating this vague coded language. Why not just say which demographic you think it favours?

Middle-class white ones?

 

 

[Sampson]

1 minute ago, kenny said:

Middle-class white ones?

 

 

Ok well in that case I think I’d probably agree with you. Though don’t know about the class background of all of them, I don’t think anyone would deny there’s a long way to go with regards to racial equality in politics.

[Lionator]

4 minutes ago, kenny said:

Middle-class white ones?

 

 

Angela Rayner is literally deputy PM. 
 

but to be fair I do slightly agree but not compared to the last government 

Edited 5 July by Lionator

[The Doctor]

53 minutes ago, Foxdiamond said:

During my lifetime I've had a gut full of the Tories. For now I just want to reflect that with this huge majority the prospect of them making a early return is nought.

I would love for that to be true but like, reform and Tories combined votes would have seen a pretty comfortable win. reform will cannibalise the tories, particularly if they go for Badenoch as leader, and Tory politics will come back with a different branding at most. We're seeing what happens when a weak centre right leader comes up against a fascist in France and the route is set clear for Starmers labour to be macron-ed if he doesn't take heed.

[Muzzy_no7]

30 minutes ago, kenny said:

It certainly favours a particular demographic....

Oh for god’s sake 

[Muzzy_no7]

12 minutes ago, kenny said:

It's just a shame that whilst the previous parliament was representative of society in the UK the current one isn't.

 

Feels like a step back for the labour party.

 

I am sure that SKS will improve this in the future, he has 5 years after all.

Maybe he’s just put the best people in the jobs and not tried to tick boxes or fill quotas? 

[Paninistickers]

Wonder if a study has been done to see what Labour's majority would've been had reform not existed and their votes split,. say, 75 to Tories and 25 to labour.