Election prediction time

[Otis]

2 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

Liz Truss' suicide budget was long after that happened and caused a mini crash. it's not comparable to labour 2010

2 years after, the same amount of time as the 2008 crash

[Mickyblueeyes]

27 minutes ago, Sampson said:

The size of majorities make no real difference neither does the size of the opposition. 
 

Even if you argue more discenting voices provide more convincing arguments, the government votes with the whip anyway so it makes no difference if they actually convince a few MPs. 
 

Besides, if you think the Tories are useless, don’t you then think it’s a good thing the LibDems have got way more seats so the voices come from a wider array of opinions and not just from the Tories?

Absolutely agree on the role of parties such as LibDems, independents etc. in parliamentary process.

 

However, where I talk about a genuine alternative, a party in turmoil v a party with a large majority for choice alone for the electorate does matter. The smaller parties simply do not have the resource/pull to challenge in each constituency as a Tory/Labour would. So yes, for me it does matter for choice alone

[st albans fox]

54 minutes ago, Mickyblueeyes said:

You look at the Tories now who find themselves in the position Labour found themselves after the last election. Perhaps after the Cameron/Brown election. 
 

It’s imperative for us as a country to have a genuine opposition. Majorities like the one we have the one we have with the previous government is not a good thing. Accountability is key for the democracy to work. 
 

You see some of the names touted as next leader and you just look at them and think, these ****ers could **** themselves even harder. Cleverly is the only grown up out of the lot but with the one vote per member, it’s clear with the obsession with Johnson and the idiocy of Truss, most of those members haven’t got a clue. 
 

 

I’d look at post ‘97 and the car crash of leaders chosen before they found someone actually electable (Cameron).  
they could easily go down the same road again 

[The Doctor]

1 hour ago, Otis said:

2 years after, the same amount of time as the 2008 crash

Yes, there is of course a huge difference between an election happening 2 years after an event and choosing to inflict a shit ton more damage on yourself 2 years after an event mind.

[Sampson]

Never mind.

Edited 7 July by Sampson

[Daggers]

3 hours ago, StanSP said:

What did she do? 

I’ve gone back to check, and it’s nothing like I remembered it - I did sit up all night drinking cocktails, in my defence. 
 

As you were 😂

[David Hankey]

For an outfit, Labour, who wanted to abolish the Upper Chamber not so long ago have today announced the discredited Jacqui Smith a life peerage so she can re-enter the Government. She has been an MP for decades after the allowances and expenses scandal. I thought we wanted to get away from all the sleaze that has surrounded Parliament.

[Otis]

1 hour ago, The Doctor said:

Yes, there is of course a huge difference between an election happening 2 years after an event and choosing to inflict a shit ton more damage on yourself 2 years after an event mind.

Covid was huge in financial terms, 10 times the disastrous Kwasi  budget.

[urban.spaceman]

47 minutes ago, David Hankey said:

For an outfit, Labour, who wanted to abolish the Upper Chamber not so long ago have today announced the discredited Jacqui Smith a life peerage so she can re-enter the Government. She has been an MP for decades after the allowances and expenses scandal. I thought we wanted to get away from all the sleaze that has surrounded Parliament.

That's still the aim but they have far too much damage to repair that they've had to push it back to a possible second term. There are also 100 more Tory Lords than Labour at the minute, which might make things harder to push through the Lords. So it makes sense to increase the number of Labour peers, especially with experienced lawmakers such as Smith.

[urban.spaceman]

Good read:

 

https://www.thetimes.com/article/b082962e-69ef-4c9a-8f43-ec3703839820?shareToken=3dd14b33c19259bf25aac6e0736b27f9

[Sampson]

Anyone else gone down the Reform UK Mark Matlock and Helen Burns rabbit hole today? 
 

Post-2015 politics is so wild sometimes.

Edited 7 July by Sampson

[Paninistickers]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

I’d look at post ‘97 and the car crash of leaders chosen before they found someone actually electable (Cameron).  
they could easily go down the same road again 

Agree. You just know that they will go down the Braverman route and lurch further right before another disastrous defeat ....only then they find someone electable ( but who has to feogn right win policies to win the membership blue rinse  vote) but actually in reality is a one nation centre right moderate. 

 

They get elected and, quelle surprise, the right of the party revolts as per 

[Bellend Sebastian]

13 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Anyone else gone down the Reform UK Mark Matlock and Helen Burns rabbit hole today? 
 

Post-2015 politics is so wild sometimes.

Thanks to you, I just have. Oh dear. 

 

There's a Twitter account in Mark Matlock's name that has no photos of him but is loudly saying "I am real".

 

Could it be that 1700 people have voted for a picture? 

[Izzy]

How about Sam Carling, an MP aged only 22.

 

Fair play to him. Massive head, must be clever.

 

 

[Legend_in_blue]

 

Didn't have any pork scratchings though.

[Grebfromgrebland]

9 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Are the ‘friends of Al- aqsa’ anything more than a pro Palestine pressure group?  is there any evidence of them acting outside of the law or wanting the destruction of Israel? 
 

If he really did use their offices then he couldn’t really distance himself from them.  
 

there’s way too much equivocation given to people who are simply protesting for a Palestinian state within a two state solution with those who want the removal of the Israeli state completely. 

You're right there may be too much equivocation but that doesn't mean that doesn't mean the majority on those marches don't want the total annihilation of Israel.  Obviously they won't tell you that to your face, they know how people will react .

 

You'll never know what people really want unless you're really close to them or they're really open about it.

 

 

[FoxyPV]

I've seen some local journalists online are investigating Reform for putting forward phantom candidates.

[Muzzy_no7]

7 minutes ago, FoxyPV said:

I've seen some local journalists online are investigating Reform for putting forward phantom candidates.

Haha.

 

If they have? They can sell it as highlighting just how garbage the electoral system is.

 

If they haven’t? Well it’s more us against them siege mentality isn’t it .

[Unabomber]

4 hours ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

Thanks to you, I just have. Oh dear. 

 

There's a Twitter account in Mark Matlock's name that has no photos of him but is loudly saying "I am real".

 

Could it be that 1700 people have voted for a picture? 

WTF that guy genuinely doesn’t exist and people have voted for him wow

[FoxyPV]

Ironically because they are set up as a Ltd, 2006 fraud act could apply

[Dunge]

Say what you like, but I think Reform have very cleverly found a candidate without a history of overt racism.

[Bellend Sebastian]

14 minutes ago, Dunge said:

Say what you like, but I think Reform have very cleverly found a candidate without a history of overt racism.

Sadly it seems a golden opportunity has been missed as whoever it is running "his" Twitter account hasn't been able to help themselves, or maybe Chat GPT is just modelling its responses on those of other Reform candidates.

 

53 minutes ago, Unabomber said:

WTF that guy genuinely doesn’t exist and people have voted for him wow

I'm sure they'll all be pondering the meaning of existence now. Who's to say that all the candidates that had actual pictures of themselves taken and went out and campaigned and appeared at the count, looking tired/triumphant/crushed were any more real than Mr Matlock?

[FoxyPV]

The candidates in all the Belfast constituencies looked AI generated but I thought that was just a stylistic thing

[urban.spaceman]

 

 

[Jon the Hat]

11 hours ago, David Hankey said:

For an outfit, Labour, who wanted to abolish the Upper Chamber not so long ago have today announced the discredited Jacqui Smith a life peerage so she can re-enter the Government. She has been an MP for decades after the allowances and expenses scandal. I thought we wanted to get away from all the sleaze that has surrounded Parliament.

Discredited?  Much as I didn’t like her much in her Home Secretary days, I do think having experience alongside the secretaries of state is a great idea.  Imo Jacqui was unfairly treated during the expenses scandal.  Under the rules as they were she was entitled to a second home, and no doubt it cost the taxpayer less than setting up a home in London.