Election prediction time

[ramboacdc]

28 minutes ago, CosbehFox said:

Is there not a danger of Farage being exposed a bit given the financial scrunity MPs face? My thought process has been he will get bored if the pennies dry up from it. 

I am sure he will squirrel it somewhere. He will hate parliament, but as @DJ Barry Hammond says above, he will get his right as leader of a party to reply and will use what will be a finite amount of time on his feet to sound bite, say something controversial and get himself trending, because it works. It's why people are talking about Reform and not Green or even Lib Dem. Reform have a leader who is known for being divisive but knows there is no such thing as bad press, same as Boris. The difference is that Farage has less to lose. His attempt to do the campaign Trump style (i.e attack the media, attack your opponents personally etc) didn't work. Him demanding an apology from the BBC seemed to be the moment he scrapped that. 

 

The difference is that Reform has already drew in a crowd that are not as clever as someone like Farage. You won't catch Farage saying anything racist like some of his candidates were, but Reform will draw that extreme right and will be the populist front for a lot more of the extreme right wing people of the country. Whether they will be not extreme enough to get Robinson and his fans to join the fold time will tell. Farage won't want them as this isn't the US and you won't be able to get them marching on Parliament and they are too loose of a cannon. 

 

I was surprised David Bull didn't stand as a candidate. He is clearly smarter than the other 4 Reform MP's put together. 

 

EDIT: I do believe Farage staged stunts such as the milkshake and those protestors at his press conference. He was too ready with a response, and didn't happen to anyone else controversial at all. The other MP's such as Jess Phillips who had to take awful campaigns against The Workers Party was more at risk than Farage.

Edited 10 July by ramboacdc

[leicsmac]

18 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

Probably not - he’s an ex banker so will know how to handle his finances to ensure as little scrutiny as possible (and even if something is found he can declare it a “establishment stitch-up.”

 

A lot of these type of points are made out of hope from those directly opposed to Farage - there’s little grounding of reality in them.

Yep, it's been shown to work.

 

An unfortunate corollary of this however is that distinctly more unsavoury things can actually happen under the auspicious of his party and he can use the same line to good effect.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

14 minutes ago, ramboacdc said:

 

EDIT: I do believe Farage staged stunts such as the milkshake and those protestors at his press conference. He was too ready with a response, and didn't happen to anyone else controversial at all. The other MP's such as Jess Phillips who had to take awful campaigns against The Workers Party was more at risk than Farage.

I was curious about the milkshake this time around - however, I couldn’t be sure because the left can’t but help fall for the Farage trap by engaged in the areas he wants them to.

 

The way to combat Farage is to;

 

• shine a bigger light on the people that support his party and their views - see if people would like to be stuck in a lift with them?

 

• Debate the policy areas he doesn’t really want to discuss - NHS being one of them, Russia another and ironically, Brexit.

 

Indeed I think his comments on Putin were a rare misstep from Farage and cost the party some votes.

[Mark_w]

1 minute ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

I was curious about the milkshake this time around - however, I couldn’t be sure because the left can’t but help fall for the Farage trap by engaged in the areas he wants them to.

 

The way to combat Farage is to;

 

• shine a bigger light on the people that support his party and their views - see if people would like to be stuck in a lift with them?

 

• Debate the policy areas he doesn’t really want to discuss - NHS being one of them, Russia another and ironically, Brexit.

 

Indeed I think his comments on Putin were a rare misstep from Farage and cost the party some votes.

Haven't we as a society been doing that for 15 years with exactly the opposite effect? The more air time the bigots get the more it normalises their views for a large chunk of the population. They've had a disproportionate amount of air time over the years and it's led us here.

[Daggers]

“They our hall the sayme” [tm]
 

 

[grobyfox1990]

1 hour ago, CosbehFox said:

Is there not a danger of Farage being exposed a bit given the financial scrunity MPs face? My thought process has been he will get bored if the pennies dry up from it. 

Good shout but surely he's got most of what he owns parked offshore under a nominee director/ownership structure. Pretty inefficient to own anything in your own name these days, never mind when you have to declare it all publicly 

[leicsmac]

50 minutes ago, Mark_w said:

Haven't we as a society been doing that for 15 years with exactly the opposite effect? The more air time the bigots get the more it normalises their views for a large chunk of the population. They've had a disproportionate amount of air time over the years and it's led us here.

I reckon the issue is that it would have worked a decade or two ago (it did with Griffin on QT), but thanks to this digital era where such bigots can freely ignore truth from the "MSM" and supplant it with their own, along with a thriving support network, means that such ideas can't be neutralised in that fashion anymore - those folks will simply continue to think their views are valid anyway.

Edited 10 July by leicsmac

[DJ Barry Hammond]

15 minutes ago, Mark_w said:

Haven't we as a society been doing that for 15 years with exactly the opposite effect? The more air time the bigots get the more it normalises their views for a large chunk of the population. They've had a disproportionate amount of air time over the years and it's led us here.

Not really, because it’s Farage that’s been getting the vast majority air time.

 

If you start publicising the grass routes and his acolytes a bit more and let them carry on talking into conspiracy theory territory, following Nigel’s bandwagon suddenly seems a lot less attractive.

[Daggers]

I was worried WeFail wouldn’t have any inspiration this sitting. 
 

 

[Daggers]

Starmer on the plane: "England have not missed a penalty under a Labour govt in 2024"

[DJ Barry Hammond]

 

Here is an example of the sort of thing I’m suggesting to combat Fromage. 
 

Ok this is related to ‘PopCon’ but it can translate - get the grass roots talking and you realise they’re all nuts! 

 

 

Edited 10 July by DJ Barry Hammond

[bovril]

24 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Starmer on the plane: "England have not missed a penalty under a Labour govt in 2024"

jinxed it

[The Fox Covert]

3 hours ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

But the comparison of someone like Lucas - who genuinely wanted to effect policy change - to Farage is not a good one.

 

All the Reform guys will want is an opportunity to say “Labour, you’re crap!” and have it shown on TV later in the evening - and they will get plenty of opportunity to do just that.

 

They don’t want or need to set an agenda in Parliament. Being seen to be in opposition is enough (this was how the SNP grew initial support before ****ing themselves).

I think we will see Farage most interested in questions and sound bites in Parliament, and grabbing media publicity. He has never shown much interest in the detailed investigation and implementation of policy, which is what the government committees do. There are some very good practitioners on both sides of the House, like Meg Hillier who is hugely respected in Parliament but hardly known to the general public.

I don't agree about the SNP. The SNP cannot be compared to Reform or even the Greens because as far as Westminster is concerned they are a single-issue party with the prime objective of Scotland not being ruled from Westminster at all. I go to Scotland a lot and it is clear that since the restoration of the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood most Scots are more interested in what is going on at Holyrood than Westminster.

[Spudulike]

 

[urban.spaceman]

18 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

Here is an example of the sort of thing I’m suggesting to combat Fromage. 
 

Ok this is related to ‘PopCon’ but it can translate - get the grass roots talking and you realise they’re all nuts! 

 

 

OK, so they haven't learned anything about why they lost or failed over the last 14 years. Lunatics.

[The Doctor]

1 hour ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

Not really, because it’s Farage that’s been getting the vast majority air time.

 

If you start publicising the grass routes and his acolytes a bit more and let them carry on talking into conspiracy theory territory, following Nigel’s bandwagon suddenly seems a lot less attractive.

ok but look at America - the MAGA extremists have got more and more attention and it hasn't shifted Trumps poll numbers at all. if we're honest at this point the concept of sunlight as the best disinfectant has ceased to be true, and has instead become greater reach for them instead 

[DJ Barry Hammond]

 

Look - sideline Farage, it suddenly looks a lot less attractive! 

 

[urban.spaceman]

Name the band.

 

 

I'm going with The Tice Girls or SS Club 7

[The Doctor]

11 minutes ago, Spudulike said:

 

I mean, kinda seems like Jon is trying to prejudice a police investigation there... if it turns out the arrested is a) guilty of counter terrorism offences and b) is connected to Shockat, then yes, questions have to be answered but right now it comes across as a massive bunch of sour grapes with this level of speculation 

[Daggers]

I'm thinking of becoming a Reform AI candidate if it means I get to meet Susanna Reid.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

27 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

ok but look at America - the MAGA extremists have got more and more attention and it hasn't shifted Trumps poll numbers at all. if we're honest at this point the concept of sunlight as the best disinfectant has ceased to be true, and has instead become greater reach for them instead 

Well let’s consider here;

 

Trump is head of a fiercely tribal and loyal Republican Party - to many it doesn’t matter who leads their party of choice, they get their votes 100% of the time.

 

To date he has stood against Hillary Clinton - a divisive candidate herself - and Joe Biden.

 

He is one for two from those elections - the election he won featured Hilary constantly referencing him as X, Y, Z - there was very little push back on policies.

 

Trump also created a carnival atmosphere around his candidacy at that time - it was box office entertainment.

 

He then gets into power, gets the economy performing pretty well, yet loses as the incumbent - no doubt because the crucial floating voters saw more of him and his cheerleaders including the likes of MTG and Giuliani and just decided - “nah, can’t be part of that.”

 

Of course, he could possibly win this time around - but this probably says more about the Democrats and they’re ridiculous Biden situation than anything Trump has done.

Edited 10 July by DJ Barry Hammond

[urban.spaceman]

Plastic. I would have called in sick just to watch.

 

 

 

[Torquay Gunner]

48 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Name the band.

 

 

I'm going with The Tice Girls or SS Club 7

Moronic Maroon 5 (tribute act)

[izzymuzzet]

51 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Name the band.

 

 

I'm going with The Tice Girls or SS Club 7

I don't know what they're for but it's clear what they're against - hemming trousers.

[The Doctor]

15 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Plastic. I would have called in sick just to watch.

 

 

 

might as well, he's already betrayed his promise to put Scotland at the heart of a labour government: