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Tuna

Election prediction time

By Tuna, in General Chat

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Bilo

Bilo

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Lee.... There's only 5 of you...

 

 

... Including you.

Chief Whip for 5 MPs? That's like being admin on a WhatsApp group chat.

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BenTheFox

BenTheFox

Posted
Posted (edited)

It's really funny listening to right wing tories trying to explain why they lost so heavily. 

 

It was the 'Popular Conservatism' conference the other day and their only explanation is "we weren't right wing enough". They are doubling down on the idea that they should go hard on defeating 'wokery', massively reducing net migration and being a party of low tax and deregulation. 

 

Granted, immigration is a big issue for a lot of voters and people do want to see a reduction in net migration. That is one reason for their thumping defeat. However, here are things that they completely missed:

 

There has been a huge downturn in the quality of public services and people's experiences with the NHS. Schools are crumbling, rivers are full of shit, trains are either always cancelled or don't turn up at all. 

 

Their conduct, particularly over the past five years. The lockdown parties, Boris Johnson promoting a known sexpest, having three Prime Minister in five months, Boris Johnson continually lying in parliament, PPE contracts etc. These things really got people's backs up. 

 

Liz Truss's minibudget. This sent people's mortgage rates through the roof and meant they lost so much of their core voter base. They dropped to being more than twenty points behind in the polls and never recovered from this. Also, Liz Truss's actions and her rhetoric around low taxes, deregulation and wanting to legalise franking was miles away from the 2019 manifesto that they were elected on. She had absolutely no mandate for it. 

 

Their 2019 was on paper a pretty big shift from what they had been offering previously. It promised 40 new hospitals, a a new green deal, HS2, state intervention and 'levelling up', essentially an end to austerity. This manifesto along with the promise to 'get Brexit done' gave them their biggest victory since Thatcher. There was campaigning around tax cuts or deregulation or anything like that. Most people would much rather have functioning public services than tax cuts. Their biggest problem in this respect is that they didn't deliver the things that people wanted in the manifesto. 

 

They're looking at votes they lost to Reform but over 70% of people that voted for Reform did so because of immigration, not because of promises to scrap net zero, conspiracy theories about the World Economic Forum or tax cuts. The 2019 manifesto of being socially conservative but having more state intervention in terms of economics with levelling up, HS2, 40 new hospitals etc. but actually delivered and not with someone as morally bankrupt and unserious as Boris Johnson is the best chance they got of getting anywhere near government. They just can't bring themselves to recognise that. 

 

Edited by BenTheFox
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Sampson

Sampson

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

 

 

Granted, immigration is a big issue for a lot of voters and people do want to see a reduction in net migration. That is one reason for their thumping defeat. However, here are things that they completely missed:

. 

 

I agree with most of your post but will also add that according to yougov, immigration was only a huge issue at the election amongst older voters, especially pensioners, it was actually the issue with the most notable age gap in terms of importance and wasn’t really a big issue amongst under 50s.
 

It was comfortably behind climate change and not much more than issues like the relationship with the EU and education amongst the under 50s, all of which got very little airtime during the election.

 

image.thumb.jpeg.84448bb7d53b07ba8c5f82be132666cd.jpeg

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BenTheFox

BenTheFox

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I agree with most of your post but will also add that according to yougov, immigration was only a huge issue at the election amongst older voters, especially pensioners, it was actually the issue with the most notable age gap in terms of importance and wasn’t really a big issue amongst under 50s.
 

It was comfortably behind climate change and not much more than issues like the relationship with the EU and education amongst the under 50s, all of which got very little airtime during the election.

 

image.thumb.jpeg.84448bb7d53b07ba8c5f82be132666cd.jpeg

What was also established this election is that the 65+ age group will vote conservative regardless. The main reason they gave for voting conservative this time out is that they always have. This is despite their handling of covid which obvioiusly begatively impacted older voters, as well as Sunak having left the D-day ceremony early. The tories can and should stop prioritising them because obviously many in that group are, let's say, leaving the electorate. If they don't try to appeal to younger voters, then they're finished. 

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Foxdiamond

Foxdiamond

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, BenTheFox said:

What was also established this election is that the 65+ age group will vote conservative regardless. The main reason they gave for voting conservative this time out is that they always have. This is despite their handling of covid which obvioiusly begatively impacted older voters, as well as Sunak having left the D-day ceremony early. The tories can and should stop prioritising them because obviously many in that group are, let's say, leaving the electorate. If they don't try to appeal to younger voters, then they're finished. 

I know you are talking in general terms but  as a pensioner I am delighted that in my little circle of oldies the very idea of voting for that absolute shower of a Tory government was never going to happen 

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FoxyPV

FoxyPV

Posted
Posted (edited)

Labour banning puberty blockers FFS for trans kids (still available for cis kids with precocious puberty)

 

Absolute silence from Labour LGBTQ group.

Edited by FoxyPV
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Zear0

Zear0

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, FoxyPV said:

Labour banning puberty blockers FFS for trans kids (still available for cis kids with precocious puberty)

 

Absolute silence from Labour LGBTQ group.

Labour didn't ban puberty blockers for children, the NHS did on the recommendation of NICE. 

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FoxyPV

FoxyPV

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

Labour didn't ban puberty blockers for children, the NHS did on the recommendation of NICE. 

Labour have made the ban permanent.

 

Puberty blockers are long recognised to be the most effective (and reversible) way of helping trans kids.

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Zear0

Zear0

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, FoxyPV said:

Labour have made the ban permanent.

 

Puberty blockers are long recognised to be the most effective (and reversible) way of helping trans kids.

Not according to the CASS report, the NHS or NICE. I'm aware it's a massively politicised and sensitive issue, but we can't ignore these things because we disagree with the outcomes. 

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FoxyPV

FoxyPV

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Zear0 said:

Not according to the CASS report, the NHS or NICE. I'm aware it's a massively politicised and sensitive issue, but we can't ignore these things because we disagree with the outcomes. 

The Cass report is a farce. It has little to no support from any LGBTQ groups.

 

You can challenge the decision if it is actually harmful to trans kids.

 

AGAIN these drugs are available to cis kids.

 

I have many friends who work in this sector and their experience is that puberty blockers are life saving medicines.

 

I know I'm pissing in the wind but it is an incredibly frustrating decision 

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st albans fox

st albans fox

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, FoxyPV said:

Labour before election - we'll recognise Palestine, don't worry

 

Labour in power - joke's on you for believing us

Did you read what they said in their manifesto?

 

they will recognise Palestine as part of a viable peace process with a two state solution.  It’s a commitment and it’s not really any change to their position of the past five years.  The Lib Dems and greens committed to a recognition without any preconditions. 

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StanSP

StanSP

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, FoxyPV said:

Labour before election - we'll recognise Palestine, don't worry

 

Labour in power - joke's on you for believing us

What have they said/done since? 

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