Election prediction time

[ozleicester]

just a reminder for you folks, as to how a much better (but not perfect) voting system works

http://i.imgur.com/oTjA73p.png

Edited 30 May by ozleicester

[Jon the Hat]

1 hour ago, ozleicester said:

I said pretty much this prior to our last election (2022) and i think ill be proved right...BUT..  the drift right by Labor parties means the future is still pretty much the same.

Interesting point.  The fact that Labour haven't been notably different in taxation levels (everyone is taxing and spending) means the protecting your wealth argument is not that clear anymore.  I also think that given Labour recovered from Jeremy Corbyn to undoubtedly get into power in 5 years, there is sod all reason why a reinvented Conservative party cannot do the same in the next 5.  They probably won't but the idea that they are a dead political force is very blinkered imo.

[Daggers]

Little Tommy ten names is drunkenly marching while shovelling coke up his nose in London this weekend with a coalition of grifters, fascists, thugs, football hooligan firms and regular nazis. 
 

Might want to give it a swerve. Especially as tens of thousand of German and Spanish football fans are heading that way too. What could possibly go wrong?

[leicsmac]

Next TV interview with Farage should consist of one question only. 

 

"What's it like to be political best friends with a convicted felon?"

[fox_up_north]

The studies have shown that, globally, younger people aren't turning conservative with age PRECISELY because they haven't got anything.

 

To think that we're hitting 40 before many people are buying a home, which was simply unthinkable a generation ago, is likely to cause the death of these kinds of Tory politics.

 

However, I am seeing more and more people my age (35 and 10 years either side) be concerned about immigration - particularly in urban areas. That will never stop being an issue for people and it will get worse.

 

Europe is going much more right wing due to immigration. I can see the same here, after Labour has been in a few years and the left wing honeymoon period ends 

[Sampson]

5 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Interesting point.  The fact that Labour haven't been notably different in taxation levels (everyone is taxing and spending) means the protecting your wealth argument is not that clear anymore.  I also think that given Labour recovered from Jeremy Corbyn to undoubtedly get into power in 5 years, there is sod all reason why a reinvented Conservative party cannot do the same in the next 5.  They probably won't but the idea that they are a dead political force is very blinkered imo.

Corbyn and a lot of his policies were popular in 2017 though and made gains on the Tories don’t forget. 2019 became a single issue election on Brexit where Labour tried to avoid the issue instead of going all in on a 2nd referendum as they should’ve done. 

[Jon the Hat]

22 minutes ago, fox_up_north said:

The studies have shown that, globally, younger people aren't turning conservative with age PRECISELY because they haven't got anything.

 

To think that we're hitting 40 before many people are buying a home, which was simply unthinkable a generation ago, is likely to cause the death of these kinds of Tory politics.

 

However, I am seeing more and more people my age (35 and 10 years either side) be concerned about immigration - particularly in urban areas. That will never stop being an issue for people and it will get worse.

 

Europe is going much more right wing due to immigration. I can see the same here, after Labour has been in a few years and the left wing honeymoon period ends 

Indeed, once they are in power Labour are fair game on why the boats keep coming, why things are not getting better (a lot won't for some time) or indeed why despite saying they won't they (have to) put taxes up even higher.

[Jon the Hat]

17 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Corbyn and a lot of his policies were popular in 2017 though and made gains on the Tories don’t forget. 2019 became a single issue election on Brexit where Labour tried to avoid the issue instead of going all in on a 2nd referendum as they should’ve done. 

2019 was not a single issue election, unless you mean keeping Corbyn and his 70s cronies out of Downing street.

[LVFox]

25 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Corbyn and a lot of his policies were popular in 2017 though and made gains on the Tories don’t forget. 2019 became a single issue election on Brexit where Labour tried to avoid the issue instead of going all in on a 2nd referendum as they should’ve done. 

This is a relatively simplistic view.

 

I agree that Corbyn really stoked up positivity in the younger generation in 2017 with a pretty exciting, progressive manifesto. 

 

In 2019 he just went reckless (free WiFi for everyone!), I agree however in that he never even attempted to answer the brexit question which cost him more than any other singular issue.

 

I do wonder if in 2029 we see a party really push for rejoining the EU or customs union (most likely Lib Dems)

[Sampson]

45 minutes ago, LVFox said:

This is a relatively simplistic view.

 

I agree that Corbyn really stoked up positivity in the younger generation in 2017 with a pretty exciting, progressive manifesto. 

 

In 2019 he just went reckless (free WiFi for everyone!), I agree however in that he never even attempted to answer the brexit question which cost him more than any other singular issue.

 

I do wonder if in 2029 we see a party really push for rejoining the EU or customs union (most likely Lib Dems)

I’m not convinced this form of hard Brexit lasts another 10 years by this point. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if towards the end of the decade uk will start drifting back towards the single market and at least become more similar to Norway or Switzerland in relation to the eu. EU have clearly been making thinly veiled olive branches aimed at Starmer saying there’s room to negotiate once the Tories are out of power. 

[fox_up_north]

Quite agree. A lot of this can be pinned on Tories. I know people say "the EU will make us suffer" but, even then, I can't see it. 

 

I always felt it was an opportunity for us to spend 10-15 years on the naughty step and, hopefully, realise what we bring to the world and what we get from it. Isolationism works for the US and China, but not us.

[urban.spaceman]

 

[kenny]

24 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

Wasted as an MP.

 

He is the best political commentator going.

[StanSP]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Next TV interview with Farage should consist of one question only. 

 

"What's it like to be political best friends with a convicted felon?"

Or 'why are you even here?' 

[urban.spaceman]

Hear me out.

 

Twenty Twelve and W1A cast reunite next year for a new series called CCHQ&A in which Ian and Siobhan are hired to rebrand the Tory Party after its worst defeat in 200 years.

 

 

 

[Parafox]

12 hours ago, Brizzle Fox said:

Man that takes me back about 40 years. Is that place still open (....please say it is)?

It would seem so:

 

Gulliver's Kingdom | Matlock Bath (gulliverskingdomresort.co.uk)

[Brizzle Fox]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

Will someone please think of the satirists....at least now the pensioners of TW can feel secure that they aren't likely to get punched.

[LVFox]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

Shame, I'm a fan of Iain's broadcasting and he's the kind of moderate Conservative that I'd much rather see the party become than the far-right taking over.

 

He should have rode the storm out in my opinion. 

[Sampson]

2 hours ago, fox_up_north said:

Quite agree. A lot of this can be pinned on Tories. I know people say "the EU will make us suffer" but, even then, I can't see it. 

 

I always felt it was an opportunity for us to spend 10-15 years on the naughty step and, hopefully, realise what we bring to the world and what we get from it. Isolationism works for the US and China, but not us.

Yeh I was cynical the EU would take us back but their recent offers of freedom of movement for 18-30 year olds and Macron talking about a European Association with “former members” seemed like they were aimed at the Labour Party saying they’re happy to renegotiate. Makes me think it’s a lot more likely we’ll drift back towards the EU over the next 5-15 years now

Edited 31 May by Sampson

[BenTheFox]

10 hours ago, ozleicester said:

I said pretty much this prior to our last election (2022) and i think ill be proved right...BUT..  the drift right by Labor parties means the future is still pretty much the same.

This is why I will be voting for the Green Party at the upcoming election. If I thought it was going to be close Id' vote Labour because getting rid of the Conservative Party is the most important, but I want to see some external pressure on the Labour Party from the left. The Green Party is far from perfect but I want the political debate in this country to shift and if there is electoral consequence to the left of the Labour Party, maybe they'll start actively seeking those votes. 

Edited 31 May by BenTheFox

[BenTheFox]

6 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

This is why I will be voting for the Green Party at the upcoming election. If I thought it was going to be close Id' vote Labour because getting rid of the Conservative Party is the most important, but I want to see some external pressure on the Labour Party from the left. The Green Party is far from perfect but I want the political debate in this country to shift and if there is electoral consequence to the left of the Labour Party, maybe they'll start actively seeking those votes. 

For clarity, I live in Gedling, a constituency that turned blue in 2019 having Labour since its inception. I'd be amazed if Labour don't win comfortably in Gedling this time around. 

[Nalis]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

He's bang on, Tunbridge Wells is full of little englanders most of which are retired.

[Daggers]

People voted Brexit as a protest against Cameron thinking Remain would easily win. 
 

Just saying. 
 

You vote anything other than who came second place last time, you’re voting Tory. It just takes others to think it doesn’t matter to vote Green or Looney…and you go get yourself a Tory MP for another four years. 

[Daggers]

3 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

2019 was not a single issue election

So true. Some people on the doorstep wanted to vote to get Brexit done - while others wanted our new found freedoms to give us the right to shoot at immigrants in boats from the cliffs of Dover. 
 

Not a single issue election? 😂

[urban.spaceman]

Another one bites the dust...