Election prediction time

[Greg2607]

24 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

For clarity, I live in Gedling, a constituency that turned blue in 2019 having Labour since its inception. I'd be amazed if Labour don't win comfortably in Gedling this time around. 

What if everyone who would vote labour in gedling makes a similar assumption to you and the conservatives MP retains their seat?

 

If your aim in this election is to make sure a Tory doesn't remain in seat, then I'd argue voting for whichever party is best placed to win that seat is the right vote. 

[Facecloth]

 

At least he apologised at the end 

[Daggers]

A huge range of emotions in this thread

 

 

 

[ozleicester]

30 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

What if everyone who would vote labour in gedling makes a similar assumption to you and the conservatives MP retains their seat?

 

If your aim in this election is to make sure a Tory doesn't remain in seat, then I'd argue voting for whichever party is best placed to win that seat is the right vote. 

Another reason why fptp needs to be done away with..

http://i.imgur.com/oTjA73p.png

Its important to let (in this case) Labor know their policies are failing, but they are still better than Tory scum

[urban.spaceman]

35 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Another one bites the dust...

 

 

And another one gone and another one gone, another one bites the dust...

 

 

[urban.spaceman]

That's 80 now??

[Bellend Sebastian]

'kin 'ell, I'll be having to run at this rate. Mind you, learned from the best: 

 

[BenTheFox]

33 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

What if everyone who would vote labour in gedling makes a similar assumption to you and the conservatives MP retains their seat?

 

If your aim in this election is to make sure a Tory doesn't remain in seat, then I'd argue voting for whichever party is best placed to win that seat is the right vote. 

The Labour Party are offering me nothing at this point. My ideal scenario is a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party. 

 

People claimed that New Labour was tory-lite but at least under New Labour we saw huge reduction in child and pensioner poverty, the introduction of the minimum wage, the Good Friday Agreement (although I'll give John Major his due, he put in a lot of the groundwork), and big investment in education and NHS. It wouldn't take that much for Labour to win my vote. However, Starmer's Labour have ruled out scrapping the two-child benefit cap, wealth taxes, has massively watered down the deal for workers and has said that Israel had the right to cut off power and electricity to Palestine. 

 

I want to see big changes in this country and they're not offering anything. I want to see an end to the two-party system and if small parties can accumulate enough votes to scare the big parties, at least it could influence their direction. Think of the effect that UKIP had on the Conservative Party. 

[Daggers]

8 minutes ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

'kin 'ell, I'll be having to run at this rate. Mind you, learned from the best: 

 

 

[Greg2607]

1 minute ago, BenTheFox said:

The Labour Party are offering me nothing at this point. My ideal scenario is a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party. 

 

People claimed that New Labour was tory-lite but at least under New Labour we saw huge reduction in child and pensioner poverty, the introduction of the minimum wage, the Good Friday Agreement (although I'll give John Major his due, he put in a lot of the groundwork), and big investment in education and NHS. It wouldn't take that much for Labour to win my vote. However, Starmer's Labour have ruled out scrapping the two-child benefit cap, wealth taxes, has massively watered down the deal for workers and has said that Israel had the right to cut off power and electricity to Palestine. 

 

I want to see big changes in this country and they're not offering anything. I want to see an end to the two-party system and if small parties can accumulate enough votes to scare the big parties, at least it could influence their direction. Think of the effect that UKIP had on the Conservative Party. 

Importantly Ben, you are making your use of your democratic right to vote and ultimately, you are allowed to vote for whoever you want to and those that align with your values. I absolutely commend you for that, and I'd love it if most of our population would take the same approach.  A democracy only works if everyone has their say. 

[Daggers]

It’s relentless 😆

 

 

 

[BenTheFox]

27 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

Importantly Ben, you are making your use of your democratic right to vote and ultimately, you are allowed to vote for whoever you want to and those that align with your values. I absolutely commend you for that, and I'd love it if most of our population would take the same approach.  A democracy only works if everyone has their say. 

A year or two ago I was very much of the opinion that everyone who wants rid of the tories should vote Labour or the biggest alternative in their constituency. A lot has changed in my mind since. I can't blame anyone who does vote Labour. If I lived in Suella Braverman's constituency for example, I'd definitely vote Labour. 

 

I don't want to revive Jeremy Corbyn in anything. I accept when there is a defeat that heavy, compromise is needed to win people over. My criticism of Corbyn is that he had some good policies but he was never the right person to lead the party and that the manifesto was a case of too much too soon. If Labour had someone like Andy Burnham leading the party with the most popular Corbyn policies (nationalising rail, mail and water for instance), I'd be all over them. 

Edited 31 May by BenTheFox

[Bordersfox]

42 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

A year or two ago I was very much of the opinion that everyone who wants rid of the tories should vote Labour or the biggest alternative in their constituency. A lot has changed in my mind since. I can't blame anyone who does vote Labour. If I lived in Suella Braverman's constituency for example, I'd definitely vote Labour. 

 

I don't want to revive Jeremy Corbyn in anything. I accept when there is a defeat that heavy, compromise is needed to win people over. My criticism of Corbyn is that he had some good policies but he was never the right person to lead the party and that the manifesto was a case of too much too soon. If Labour had someone like Andy Burnham leading the party with the most popular Corbyn policies (nationalising rail, mail and water for instance), I'd be all over them. 

This is very well said Ben.

 

I think we must remember though that anybody putting forward really progressive policies, be it Burnham or Starmer, is going to get serious push back from vast swathes of the media.  Corbyn was, of course, easy to attack for numerous reasons and made many political howlers.  But his policies certainly contributed to the vitriol he faced.   

 

I think the frustrating thing is that I do believe there are a lot of people who now want to see some progressive policies.  Nothing crazy, we are a small c conservative country over all.  But some more moves towards progressive taxation, nationalisation of polluting water companies and failing, subsidised rail companies and so on.  I reckon the appetite is there because of the doldrums the country finds itself in.  

 

So I do wish Starmer would be much bolder, he can and should win even if the majority of the media sh1t themselves and rally behind the tories. He's much harder to attack than Corbyn on a personal level and has a serious, impressive C.V. prior to becoming a politician.   I think the Tories are just too damaged at this point to win.  This feels like a potentially missed opportunity.  

 

Overall Starmer is a massive disappointment but, that said, I will vote for him in the next election and hope he has under promised but over delivers.  

[Sampson]

Milliband treaded the line well between Corbyn and Starmer but got slaughtered for eating a bacon sandwich wrong. Just hope the less and less power of the tabloids continues

[LiberalFox]

I think it depends also on who the candidates are. 

 

If you have a blue Labour candidate running against a moderate Conservative then there isn't a strong left wing case for voting Labour. 

 

If right wing Labour candidates do worse in marginals and if moderate Conservative candidates do better than extreme ones then that is sending a message to both parties. 

 

 

 

 

[Greg2607]

1 hour ago, BenTheFox said:

A year or two ago I was very much of the opinion that everyone who wants rid of the tories should vote Labour or the biggest alternative in their constituency. A lot has changed in my mind since. I can't blame anyone who does vote Labour. If I lived in Suella Braverman's constituency for example, I'd definitely vote Labour. 

 

I don't want to revive Jeremy Corbyn in anything. I accept when there is a defeat that heavy, compromise is needed to win people over. My criticism of Corbyn is that he had some good policies but he was never the right person to lead the party and that the manifesto was a case of too much too soon. If Labour had someone like Andy Burnham leading the party with the most popular Corbyn policies (nationalising rail, mail and water for instance), I'd be all over them. 

I Live in Andrew Bridgens constituency..... almost anything is a lesser evil if I'm honest! 

[Daggers]

22 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Milliband treaded the line well between Corbyn and Starmer but got slaughtered for eating a bacon sandwich wrong. Just hope the less and less power of the tabloids continues

Yeh, but the chaos though - don’t forget about Ed’s chaos. Just imagine what it’d have been like with ol’ Chaos Ed…

[BenTheFox]

18 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

I Live in Andrew Bridgens constituency..... almost anything is a lesser evil if I'm honest! 

Yeah, fair play. The thought him blubbing at 4am having lost his seat is beautiful. 

[BenTheFox]

26 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Milliband treaded the line well between Corbyn and Starmer but got slaughtered for eating a bacon sandwich wrong. Just hope the less and less power of the tabloids continues

You've still got to have some charisma as a leader though. Unfortunately, Ed lacked that in abundance. Sadly many people vote based on vibes. 

[Dr The Singh]

Dianne Abbott for PM 

[Dunge]

Ed Milliband just looked a bit odd in the end, in the way that he and Rishi Sunak both look like they should be inventing crazy contraptions with a dog called Gromit.

 

Plus people were concerned that he’d get in on a Labour/SNP ticket.

[The Doctor]

6 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

2019 was not a single issue election, unless you mean keeping Corbyn and his 70s cronies out of Downing street.

I mean, like 90% of the tories campaign was "get brexit done". it's by far the closest to a single issue election we've ever had, and that single issue was brexit 

[Tuna]

6 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

I mean, like 90% of the tories campaign was "get brexit done". it's by far the closest to a single issue election we've ever had, and that single issue was brexit 

10% agree

[Tuna]

That was supposed to say 100% but leaving it like that is funnier

[The Doctor]

6 minutes ago, Tuna said:

10% agree

no, the other 10% was "this mad commie will turn the UK into the Soviet Union"