Election prediction time

[westernpark]

2 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

He was saying both parties though. As far as I'm aware, only one party is responsible for all that.

 

It just seems to be a remarkable coincidence that we only ever see this kind of "all as bad as each other" line trotted out when the Tories are doing badly.

Daily Mail promotes apathy towards all politicians when the Tories are doing badly, seen today regarding people preferring to watch football and drink beers, instead of voting. 
Keir Starmer, from a working-class background, did academically superb and ended up leading a key public service in this country. Rishi Sunak, a billionaire who claimed he couldn’t be friends with working-class people. But Starmer is boring so it doesn’t matter, apparently. 

[Dr The Singh]

2 hours ago, Jattdogg said:

Never,  ewwww.

You would give him though dog.,...  Showing your undeniable love for your beloved hindustan, jai bharat,  jai  hind

Edited 23 May by Dr The Singh

[Jattdogg]

4 minutes ago, Dr The Singh said:

You would give him though dog.,...  Showing your undeniable love for your beloved hindustan, jai bharat,  jai  hind

No chance. Diddy on the other hand might offer himself to modi

[MPH]

[bovril]

Labour majority of 192

[Tommy G]

Rachel Reeves giving the biggest car crash interview after Kay Burley asks if Labour will increase taxes. Just salad, with a big gulp before she tries to give an answer. Winced the whole way through 

[Jon the Hat]

17 hours ago, Daggers said:

Public perception is driven by Tory media - and they’ve been gunning for her since day 1, subjecting her to blatant and vile misogyny. 
 

The post she holds was voted for by the members of the party, her constituency adores her. She’s a very popular woman once you step away from Fleet St noise. 

She is genuinely a star.  The sooner this tax bollocks is out of the way the better.  If she does end up resigning over a 5k tax error then the country will be the loser. 

[Jon the Hat]

11 hours ago, westernpark said:

Daily Mail promotes apathy towards all politicians when the Tories are doing badly, seen today regarding people preferring to watch football and drink beers, instead of voting. 
Keir Starmer, from a working-class background, did academically superb and ended up leading a key public service in this country. Rishi Sunak, a billionaire who claimed he couldn’t be friends with working-class people. But Starmer is boring so it doesn’t matter, apparently. 

I don't think he did, no need to talk nonsense.  There are plenty of reasons Sunak should be nowhere near public life, there is no need to make it up.

[Daggers]

13 hours ago, StanSP said:

What happens if there is a hung parliament? 

I for one will be smashing a lot of shit up. 
 

15 hours ago, Greg2607 said:

What I do find interesting though, is that if you look at the labour website and the Conservative website.... there is MUCH more on Labours plan and how they plan to renew the country, versus what is on the Conservative website..... for all of you saying "yeah but labour don't have a plan" I suspect it's because you haven't tried to look for it, or are so tuned out to it, that you haven't heard what's been said. 

 

 

Moreover, if you had to name any Conservative plans what would they be?

 

Stopping boats? The boats haven’t been stopped and Sunak admits the Rwanda money pit is over. They’ve been promising to bring down immigration to tens of thousands in both of Cameron’s, May’s and Johnson’s manifestos and failed absolutely to do so across 14 years.  
 

Stopping smoking? He claimed he was doing this at the lectern, not even 24hrs later and the Bill is dead on the floor of the House. 

The only thing Sunak has delivered he didn’t even have anything to do with - the Bank of England reduced inflation through the application of interest rates. 
 

Billions embezzled, billions of budget cuts, services on their knees, unaffordable bills, polarised society, housing crisis, rivers and seas full of shit, poisoned drinking water, pot holes galore, prisons overflowing, police being told to release criminals…

 

If that’s a plan working then give me “back to square one” every day of the week. 

 

 

[worth_the_wait]

The morning after the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum, there was a young man draped in a Saltire sitting disconcertedly on the pavement.  He was utterly bewildered, and he was trying to make sense of what had just happened.  He just couldn't believe his side had lost.
 
"Everyone I know wanted independence.  Everybody I spoke to said they were going to vote that way."
 
I genuinely felt sorry for him.  He really didn't understand. 
 
The reason, of course, was fairly obvious.  He spent the previous months in an echo-chamber, only ever hearing or seeing one side of the debate.   It didn't occur to him that there might be lots of people with a different opinion.  It's often called "the silent majority".
 
Anyway, what's all this got to do with us, here and now?   I suppose it's just a lesson for us all.  Spend a bit less time in the echo-chamber, try and read about or listen to people with a different opinion to our own.   And don't assume that because most people seem to agree with you, it means that's what the rest of the country are thinking.

[leicsmac]

13 minutes ago, worth_the_wait said:

The morning after the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum, there was a young man draped in a Saltire sitting disconcertedly on the pavement.  He was utterly bewildered, and he was trying to make sense of what had just happened.  He just couldn't believe his side had lost.
 
"Everyone I know wanted independence.  Everybody I spoke to said they were going to vote that way."
 
I genuinely felt sorry for him.  He really didn't understand. 
 
The reason, of course, was fairly obvious.  He spent the previous months in an echo-chamber, only ever hearing or seeing one side of the debate.   It didn't occur to him that there might be lots of people with a different opinion.  It's often called "the silent majority".
 
Anyway, what's all this got to do with us, here and now?   I suppose it's just a lesson for us all.  Spend a bit less time in the echo-chamber, try and read about or listen to people with a different opinion to our own.   And don't assume that because most people seem to agree with you, it means that's what the rest of the country are thinking.

One would think, after so many people have waxed lyrical about this "silent majority" and how important a factor it is, that pollsters have learned to account for it in their models and therefore the predictions they are giving are (broadly) accurate.

[Legend_in_blue]

36 minutes ago, Daggers said:

I for one will be smashing a lot of shit up. 
 

Moreover, if you had to name any Conservative plans what would they be?

 

Stopping boats? The boats haven’t been stopped and Sunak admits the Rwanda money pit is over. They’ve been promising to bring down immigration to tens of thousands in both of Cameron’s, May’s and Johnson’s manifestos and failed absolutely to do so across 14 years.  
 

Stopping smoking? He claimed he was doing this at the lectern, not even 24hrs later and the Bill is dead on the floor of the House. 

The only thing Sunak has delivered he didn’t even have anything to do with - the Bank of England reduced inflation through the application of interest rates. 
 

Billions embezzled, billions of budget cuts, services on their knees, unaffordable bills, polarised society, housing crisis, rivers and seas full of shit, poisoned drinking water, pot holes galore, prisons overflowing, police being told to release criminals…

 

If that’s a plan working then give me “back to square one” every day of the week. 

 

 

But the plan is working.  The energy price cap is coming down again and yesterday Costa was on the local radio telling us all to ignore Labour's waffle.  

 

[BKLFox]

Will Corbyn running as an independent put a spanner in the Labour cogs?

[Greg2607]

4 minutes ago, BKLFox said:

Will Corbyn running as an independent put a spanner in the Labour cogs?

in one seat, for sure.  I do think Corbyn will be re-elected in his seat.  Regardless of people's opinions on his broader views, he has generally been a very strong local MP. 

[BKLFox]

19 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

in one seat, for sure.  I do think Corbyn will be re-elected in his seat.  Regardless of people's opinions on his broader views, he has generally been a very strong local MP. 

Yep admittedly it’s only 1 seat which as you say he’ll probably smash but broadly speaking behind the scenes would it have the potential to fracture the party with members perhaps jumping ship preferring to back him?

Could be a distraction Keir could do without this close to victory, JC knows what he’s doing stirring the pot.

[Daggers]

 

 

[Daggers]

Corbyn booted out of Labour for accepting cash from Owen Jones’ Trust of Stupid.

 

 

[izzymuzzet]

17 hours ago, DennisNedry said:

I can see a hung parliament.

 

I'll either vote Labour or not bother, it depends on the manifestos. I live in a safe Tory seat so it seems pointless.

If you don't mind saying, what constituency are you in? There may not actually be that many safe Tory seats in this election, so your vote may not be wasted as it might have been in the past.

[DennisNedry]

15 minutes ago, izzymuzzet said:

If you don't mind saying, what constituency are you in? There may not actually be that many safe Tory seats in this election, so your vote may not be wasted as it might have been in the past.

South Leicestershire.

 

It's been a safe Tory seat since its inception in 2010, and before that in it's previous guise as 'Blaby' was Tory since it's inception in 1974, staying comfortably safe in 1997. 

 

It's hard to find out about before that with the constituency boundary changes, but I don't think it's been anything other than Conservative since WW2. 

 

I'll still go out and vote Labour but it'll be fruitless I'm sure.

Edited 24 May by DennisNedry

[Torquay Gunner]

3 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

But the plan is working.  The energy price cap is coming down again and yesterday Costa was on the local radio telling us all to ignore Labour's waffle.  

 

What’s that got to do with them, they should stick to serving coffee and cake. 😜

[ramboacdc]

One of these is the parliament of the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea. The other is the current forecast for this General Election.

 

Labour over 300 majority I think and tories below 100 seats. I don't think they actually want to win from how they are talking. The forecast for a lot of things looks like at any point bubbles could burst. 

 

 

 

 

[izzymuzzet]

1 hour ago, DennisNedry said:

South Leicestershire.

 

It's been a safe Tory seat since its inception in 2010, and before that in it's previous guise as 'Blaby' was Tory since it's inception in 1974, staying comfortably safe in 1997. 

 

It's hard to find out about before that with the constituency boundary changes, but I don't think it's been anything other than Conservative since WW2. 

 

I'll still go out and vote Labour but it'll be fruitless I'm sure.

Yep that’s a pretty safe Tory seat to be fair. I notice the boundaries are changing for this election but don’t know enough about the area to know whether that will shift the dial much. If they’re losing there then they really are on for wipeout. 

[urban.spaceman]

On 22/05/2024 at 20:33, filthyfox said:

I'm not sure the spanking will be THAT comprehensive.  But a spanking it shall be.

A man can dream.

[Legend_in_blue]

1 hour ago, DennisNedry said:

South Leicestershire.

 

It's been a safe Tory seat since its inception in 2010, and before that in it's previous guise as 'Blaby' was Tory since it's inception in 1974, staying comfortably safe in 1997. 

 

It's hard to find out about before that with the constituency boundary changes, but I don't think it's been anything other than Conservative since WW2. 

 

I'll still go out and vote Labour but it'll be fruitless I'm sure.

Unfortunately I don't see Costa losing.  People are too short sighted and won't look past the local issues.  He was on the defensive yesterday for sure though and was defending his hard working attitude (never seen him in 14 yrs knocking on doors) whilst banging on about Labour's so called mixed messaging/waffle.

 

He's worried though.  The local elections here wiped out the Conservatives bar the main councillor who individually does a good job tbf.  Costa will be banking on that to get votes.  His majority will fall but he'll stick around for sure.  Can't see a change and it's disappointing that viable alternatives don't seem to care around here either when it comes to votes on a national level.

Edited 24 May by Legend_in_blue

[Bellend Sebastian]

I was looking at the results from the last GE for South Leicestershire and it really is about as safe as it gets.

 

I was listening to a live Twitter event last night where Carol Vorderman was EXTREMELY passionate about the importance of tactical voting but it certainly wouldn't have made any difference in South Leicestershire last time out