Election prediction time

[Jon the Hat]

31 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

He said 'could', not 'will'.

Good point!  It could be a generation he is right.  It might take that long to get a new generation.

 

21 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

If she was even paying 5% of the tax she really should be paying it would be the tories biggest marketing tactic of this election. Reverse engineering means we kinda do know what she pays, f all. Govt set the rules and we set govt, she might be doing the ‘right’ thing as it stands but she’ll be doing the right thing in California in a few weeks time after we sack her husband 

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying?  She will be paying the amount of tax her income and capital gains require under the law.

[grobyfox1990]

21 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Good point!  It could be a generation he is right.  It might take that long to get a new generation.

 

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying?  She will be paying the amount of tax her income and capital gains require under the law.

Yeh and the law is an ass. She will be declaring and paying (presumably) the correct amount of tax as per law, with a few judgement calls in there I’m sure, which her husband is fully involved and influential in setting. And we’re about to sack her husband very shortly! 

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Yeh and the law is an ass. She will be declaring and paying (presumably) the correct amount of tax as per law, with a few judgement calls in there I’m sure, which her husband is fully involved and influential in setting. And we’re about to sack her husband very shortly! 

Yup.

 

As often when stuff like this comes up, I'm reminded of a Pratchett quote:

 

"... you were so worried about legal and illegal that you never stopped to think about whether it was right or wrong."

[LVFox]

Can see Reform hugely leaning into Rishi leaving the D-Day event early. Will play into their hands. Reform could really play a vital role in killing the Conservative party off here.

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, LVFox said:

Can see Reform hugely leaning into Rishi leaving the D-Day event early. Will play into their hands. Reform could really play a vital role in killing the Conservative party off here.

I can’t think of a gaffe that plays into Reform’s hands more than ditching D-day commemorations. It’s like the ultimate red flag for the Right. Don’t think opposing parties could’ve come up with a better gaffe if they wrote it. No idea who is advising Rishi at this election.

Edited 7 June by Sampson

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, LVFox said:

Can see Reform hugely leaning into Rishi leaving the D-Day event early. Will play into their hands. Reform could really play a vital role in killing the Conservative party off here.

Agreed, but a note of caution: careful watching of that situation is needed because a group like Reform gaining enough power to significantly affect policymaking won't end well for anyone.

[LVFox]

10 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Agreed, but a note of caution: careful watching of that situation is needed because a group like Reform gaining enough power to significantly affect policymaking won't end well for anyone.

I do slightly agree to this...however.

 

Is there not an argument that a true democracy represents its constituents, and if a large enough % choose to vote for reform, those views deserve to be reflected in policy.

 

I don't agree with 95% of their proposals, but the rise of populists is only ever the fault of the existing major political parties and not the electorat. 

[Greg2607]

just my regular reminder of the main parties campaign websites so that people can make an informed choice of who they want to support. 

 

https://www.conservatives.com/

 

https://labour.org.uk/updates/

 

https://www.libdems.org.uk/ (if you haven't watched the video from Ed Davey on his caring responsibilities, it's a moving watch!) 

 

https://greenparty.org.uk/

 

https://www.reformparty.uk/policies

 

some of this might help people to get beyond the soundbites and media commentary and delve deeper into what each party is offering.  

[Daggers]

44 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I can’t think of a gaffe that plays into Reform’s hands than ditching D-day commemorations. It’s like the ultimate red flag for the Right. Don’t think opposing parties could’ve come up with a better gaffe if they wrote it. No idea who is advising Rishi at this election.

 

[Greg2607]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

I can’t think of a gaffe that plays into Reform’s hands than ditching D-day commemorations. It’s like the ultimate red flag for the Right. Don’t think opposing parties could’ve come up with a better gaffe if they wrote it. No idea who is advising Rishi at this election.

I said it previously that the conspiracy theory part of my brain is saying that they don't actually want to win, as they know the state of the economy and that the brexit tranisiton is about to bite hard... they would rather be in opposition and lay the blame at labours door.... I'm not sure they anticipated Reform gaining momentum though and staring down the barrel of not even being the official opposition. 

 

As it stands, on a number of polls, it has a surge for the lib dems and them making the 2nd largest party in parliament. Thing is as well, it self perpetuates... if people suddenly think that they could vote for an alternative and that there is a bigger chance of that party winning the seat, then it might mobilise the people who would normally stay at home....  It's going to be a VERY interesting election night that's for sure! 

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, LVFox said:

I do slightly agree to this...however.

 

Is there not an argument that a true democracy represents its constituents, and if a large enough % choose to vote for reform, those views deserve to be reflected in policy.

 

I don't agree with 95% of their proposals, but the rise of populists is only ever the fault of the existing major political parties and not the electorat. 

It's a fair point and one that's been discussed here before.

 

My reply is pretty much the same as it was; in principle I agree, but in practice very bad consequences of policy including the wholesale oppression of groups of people and possibly escalating upward from there aren't suddenly better because they're the result of a "true democracy". And those who end up during or after the sharp end of it all certainly won't see it that way or bother to make the distinction either,  and I wouldn't blame them.

Edited 7 June by leicsmac

[EnderbyFox]

 

Cameron standing in for Rishi after he buggered off home.. Shame Cameron looks like a pissed uncle at a wedding 

[Tuna]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

I can’t think of a gaffe that plays into Reform’s hands more than ditching D-day commemorations. It’s like the ultimate red flag for the Right. Don’t think opposing parties could’ve come up with a better gaffe if they wrote it. No idea who is advising Rishi at this election.

 

[Daggers]

 

[Daggers]

 

[Foxdiamond]

Sunak the deserter 

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, Daggers said:

 

Bizarre. Given Biden is also in the lead up a general election and Macron is the middle of EU elections and neither had any problems turning up. Embarrassing himself and deserting his duties of statehood in front of 2 of our closest allies and 2 of 3 world leaders he has to work closest with along with the chancellor of Germany. 
 

It’s just not understanding the duties of being a prime minister, simple as that.
 

You can’t make “mistakes” like that as prime minister, it’s something you get out your system as a junior minister, but sacking off an event commemorating the 80th anniversary of D-day with both the French and US presidents is just wow.

 

And for what? An ITV interview that doesn’t even air for days and could easily have just been done today instead. 
 

Genuinely struggling to think of a worse gaffe in an election campaign from a standing pm.

Edited 7 June by Sampson

[LVFox]

2 minutes ago, Sampson said:

 

Genuinely struggling to think of a worse gaffe in an election campaign from a standing pm.

The only thing I can slightly think of is Gordon Brown's "Bigoted woman" episode, and this is far worse, mainly as it cuts to the heart of the voting core of the Conservatives.

[Sampson]

4 minutes ago, LVFox said:

The only thing I can slightly think of is Gordon Brown's "Bigoted woman" episode, and this is far worse, mainly as it cuts to the heart of the voting core of the Conservatives.

Yeh that’s true, but as you said, it cuts deep into his own voter base which I think is a key thing here. 

[Foxdiamond]

11 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Bizarre. Given Biden is also in the lead up a general election and Macron is the middle of EU elections and neither had any problems turning up. Embarrassing himself and deserting his duties of statehood in front of 2 of our closest allies and 2 of 3 world leaders he has to work closest with along with the chancellor of Germany. 
 

It’s just not understanding the duties of being a prime minister, simple as that.
 

You can’t make “mistakes” like that as prime minister, it’s something you get out your system as a junior minister, but sacking off an event commemorating the 80th anniversary of D-day with both the French and US presidents is just wow.

 

And for what? An ITV interview that doesn’t even air for days and could easily have just been done today instead. 
 

Genuinely struggling to think of a worse gaffe in an election campaign from a standing pm.

If Sunak was a football manager it would be him going home early and not just some fans

[CrazyKopCorner]

4 hours ago, Sampson said:

Sunak getting slaughtered by the right wing commentators who usually are Tory mouthpieces over leaving d-day commemorations early to do an itv interview.

 

Genuinely can’t believe how incompetent the team running his campaign are. He’s doing everything in his power possible to lose even the staunchest of flag waving Tories.

He’s just not a good politician and his instincts are all wrong - still I suspect he’ll be on his bike / private jet in the next month  

Edited 7 June by CrazyKopCorner

[Legend_in_blue]

Wasn't the itv interview set to defend his 2k tax claim?  

 

How that has turned on him since Tuesday night.  

 

It's brilliant.  

[FOXYTALK]

Let's see how tonight's debate fairs. I assume it will be a gang on Farage evening. 

[RoboFox]

They've fvcked the country into oblivion through their own ineptitude, so it's not really surprising that they're somehow managing to sabotage their own election campaign. But even I couldn't have imagined this in my wildest dreams. It's utter self-destruction.  

 

Ordinarily I'd be bottling this to inject into my veins, but the reemergence of Farage spoils it somewhat.

 

It might not be so fun once he takes over and becomes Tory leader as a result.

[reporterpenguin]

That’s very impressive how he’s actually managed to make a bad situation worse.