Election prediction time

[Bellend Sebastian]

Thinking about it, at least two of the surviving Bring Back Boris types I know live in that area

[StanSP]

Why are so many boundaries changing, and is this normal? 

[filthyfox]

11 minutes ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

I was looking at the results from the last GE for South Leicestershire and it really is about as safe as it gets.

 

I was listening to a live Twitter event last night where Carol Vorderman was EXTREMELY passionate about the importance of tactical voting but it certainly wouldn't have made any difference in South Leicestershire last time out

Nah mate.   South Dorset is safer.  Quite how the bloke who lives in the second largest walled estate in the country can represent me, I do not know 

[Bellend Sebastian]

24 minutes ago, filthyfox said:

Nah mate.   South Dorset is safer.  Quite how the bloke who lives in the second largest walled estate in the country can represent me, I do not know 

Well we've got someone with, to all intents and purposes, infinite money as prime minister so basically, know your place.

 

Is he related to the entirely fictional Bond villain? Nothing would surprise me these days

[urban.spaceman]

 

[Patrick]

40 minutes ago, filthyfox said:

Nah mate.   South Dorset is safer.  Quite how the bloke who lives in the second largest walled estate in the country can represent me, I do not know 

One of the last YouGov MRP polls had the Tories only 1% ahead of Labour in South Dorset so you never know, it has been Labour in the past so could switch back. Would love to see Drax get kicked out, easily one of the worst MPs in the commons. 

 

16 minutes ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

Is he related to the entirely fictional Bond villain? Nothing would surprise me these days

Fleming named the character after one of Drax's relatives, his great grandfather I think it was.

[izzymuzzet]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

Why are so many boundaries changing, and is this normal? 

Long story short. There was a boundary review during the Coalition years which proposed reducing the number of MPs from 650 to 600. That was ditched due to a Parliamentary rebellion because turkeys don’t vote for Christmas. The Boundary Commission went back to the drawing board but the number of electoral events between 2015 and 2019 (3 general elections and a referendum) meant they couldn’t get round to redrawing the boundaries. The last 3 or 4 years is the first opportunity they’ve had to do the work. 
 

So no it’s not normal to have this many boundary changes but it’s also not normal to have this long between boundary reviews. 

[Greg2607]

AND.... surprise suprise, the new boundaries will make it more difficult to gain power. 

[Izzy]

26 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

At least he's wearing a raincoat this time 

 

[filthyfox]

27 minutes ago, Patrick said:

One of the last YouGov MRP polls had the Tories only 1% ahead of Labour in South Dorset so you never know, it has been Labour in the past so could switch back. Would love to see Drax get kicked out, easily one of the worst MPs in the commons. 

 

Fleming named the character after one of Drax's relatives, his great grandfather I think it was.

Slave owner probably

[izzymuzzet]

14 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

AND.... surprise suprise, the new boundaries will make it more difficult to gain power. 

Hilariously that was true when the boundaries were confirmed. But evidence from the last set of council elections and YouGov’s MRP polls suggests the new boundaries actually might work in Labour’s favour. 

[Daggers]

 

[Daggers]

I said this the second the podium came out. Nice to see MPs are catching up.

 

 

[urban.spaceman]

 

 

[urban.spaceman]

There has GOT to be a Labour plant on the CCHQ team. There just has to be.

 

 

[The Doctor]

On 23/05/2024 at 15:20, HighPeakFox said:

It will be closer than most think, I fear, because we are a right-leaning country with a horrifically biased, corrupt and politically intertwined gutter press, who will do anything they can to weaken the majority.

also historically one of labours core voter bases has been uni students (personally not convinced this will persist regardless, lot of young people angry with starmers bothsidesism over Israel) and this is timed for right around when student leases end.

[Zear0]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

There has GOT to be a Labour plant on the CCHQ team. There just has to be.

 

 

Who'd have thought this lot were incompetent? 

[Dr The Singh]

Modi wins

[Daggers]

 

[urban.spaceman]

Rishi you're literally building a RED WALL.

 

 

 

[Izzy]

5 hours ago, Dr The Singh said:

Modi wins

[urban.spaceman]

 

[Daggers]

It’s like school summer holidays. 

Who fancies coming down the park to smoke tabs and drink cider?

 

 

[Legend_in_blue]

13 hours ago, urban.spaceman said:

Rishi you're literally building a RED WALL.

 

 

 

One gaff after another.  And today's is...?  

[urban.spaceman]

6 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

One gaff after another.  And today's is...?  

He's staying at home. Even he can't **** that up surely?