Election prediction time

[Tommy G]

1 hour ago, westernpark said:

Kier Starmer also seems like a genuinely good bloke. People just want an entertainer rather than a professional who has an extensive history of running a public service.

That's your opinion, I personally don't think he is a genuinely good bloke - my comment was saying that E D was a good guy, particularly interested to see and hear what he had to say about carers and the situation he found himself in with his parents. Just a comment away from the usual mudslinging in this thread - which is fun nonetheless. 

[Greg2607]

21 minutes ago, Tommy G said:

Just to shock you I actualy voted Lib Dem the last time around!

didn't necessarily mean a change in your own voting patterns.... i meant a change in the local MP. 

[Robo61]

1 hour ago, Greg2607 said:

agreed. seems very genuine and authentic. 

 

I was very firmly Lib Dems in my early voting "career" as they were the most likely to unseat my local MP.... but having moved house that isn't the case any more and feels like a wasted vote in the FPTP system.  I'm really hoping that there is some tactical voting at this election and we see a big resurgence in the Lib Dems and the number of seats they win. 

 

If you fancy a change from the Conversatives tom, Them Lib Dems are the best alternative for you in Hinckley & Bosworth but even then it would have to be a huge swing. 

 

in fact, if the Tories lose Hinckley & Bosworth then they will be in hellish territory in terms of overall seats, as it's one of the safest tory seats ever. it's been blue for my entire life that's for sure. 

This is a myth perpetuated by all LD literature locally.   Labour have almost always finished second in Bosworth.  Yes LD poll well in local Council Elections but not in GE's. Tactical voting websites are recommending those not wanting another Tory Government to vote Labour here.

Edit: Early Polling suggestions Labour are neck and neck with the Tories in the new constituancy of Hinckley & Bosworth with the LDs a distant third.

Edited 10 June by Robo61

[LiberalFox]

I'll be voting Lib Dem in South Leicestershire. It's probably a similar situation where LDs will point to their local election performance and Labour will point to their 2019 vote share being higher and both will ask for tactical votes from the other. 

 

I doubt there is any real threat to Costa to be honest. So far haven't received anything from anyone apart from my own focus round. 

 

 

[HighPeakFox]

Oadby etc is set to go to Labour, apparently. It's been blue since I was born. 

[fox_up_north]

If you strongly believe in your candidate, moreso than your desire to oust a Tory, then you should vote for who you believe in

[urban.spaceman]

Ouch

 

 

[Greg2607]

1 hour ago, Robo61 said:

This is a myth perpetuated by all LD literature locally.   Labour have almost always finished second in Bosworth.  Yes LD poll well in local Council Elections but not in GE's. Tactical voting websites are recommending those not wanting another Tory Government to vote Labour here.

Edit: Early Polling suggestions Labour are neck and neck with the Tories in the new constituancy of Hinckley & Bosworth with the LDs a distant third.

I stand corrected apologies. 

 

I lived in Hinckley & Bosworth for voting purposes in 2010 & 2015 and LD came second on both of those occasions. 

 

Stopthetories.vote aren't currently giving a tactical vote recommendation for the constituency yet. 

[Raj]

Tough call for me to get the scum ousted.

[BenTheFox]

It's really making me laugh seeing right-wing people referring to Labour as 'socialists'. This is arguably the most right-wing Labour Party ever. It certainly is in terms of rhetoric. 

Edited 10 June by BenTheFox

[leicsmac]

Just now, BenTheFox said:

It's really making me laugh seeing right-wing people referring to Labour as 'socialists'. This is arguably the most right-wing Labour Party. It certainly is in terms of rhetoric. 

Learned from social media and their counterparts across the pond.

 

All the same "happy to see the world burn as long as we continue to dominate it and rule the ashes" energy.

[Daggers]

Oh ffs.

Edited 10 June by Daggers

[Daggers]

I meant to post this

 

 

[HighPeakFox]

43 minutes ago, fox_up_north said:

If you strongly believe in your candidate, moreso than your desire to oust a Tory, then you should vote for who you believe in

Under the current voting system, I respectfully suggest that this is a wonderfully idealistic yet naive notion.

[HighPeakFox]

15 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

It's really making me laugh seeing right-wing people referring to Labour as 'socialists'. This is arguably the most right-wing Labour Party ever. It certainly is in terms of rhetoric. 

They're desperate, and desperate people say and do desperate things.

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

They're desperate, and desperate people say and do desperate things.

I'm not sure about the desperation. I think that they see the reach the far right has in certain places in Europe and the US and are tilting for the same kind of power, driven by the longer castable shadow of social media.

 

They won't get it this time round, but in a few years with the Tories weakened as they are, it might be a good idea to be vigilant about something much worse becoming the second party. Or even the first.

[st albans fox]

16 minutes ago, Daggers said:

I meant to post this

 

 

It gets better !

[StanSP]

Has anyone ever been on a rollercoaster in a suit before

 

[Voll Blau]

2 hours ago, HighPeakFox said:

Oadby etc is set to go to Labour, apparently. It's been blue since I was born. 

Part of Harborough, which was last Labour in 1950.

 

Seems to be predicted to go red on most maps I've seen lately, but I'll believe it when I see it.

[StanSP]

So 56 pages later, has anyone's predictions changes since just over a fortnight ago? 

[Mark_w]

1 minute ago, StanSP said:

So 56 pages later, has anyone's predictions changes since just over a fortnight ago? 

Yes I now think Reform will be second instead of the Lib Dems

[Tommy Fresh]

27 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Has anyone ever been on a rollercoaster in a suit before

 

 

[Sampson]

9 minutes ago, Mark_w said:

Yes I now think Reform will be second instead of the Lib Dems

Reform only score well with the over 55s and virtually nothing under that, you need a broader demographic vote to get enough to win a constituency and not just a small spread in many seats over the country. I’d be very surprised if they get even half as many seats as the Lib Dems or the SNP regardless of their popular vote.

 

Sunak just created another headline. He really has given up, as if you genuinely admit that it’s under your party that people can no longer  afford a home.

 

 

 

Edited 10 June by Sampson

[Daggers]

I’ll be amazed if Reform get more than two or three.

 

Odious bunch of fascists.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/10/reform-uk-defends-candidate-over-hitler-neutrality-comments

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, Daggers said:

I’ll be amazed if Reform get more than two or three.

 

Odious bunch of fascists.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/10/reform-uk-defends-candidate-over-hitler-neutrality-comments

I reckon so too for this election, but as per above, I fear how many seats they or other parties of similar ideology will score next time round.