Election prediction time

[Zear0]

12 minutes ago, Tommy Fresh said:

 

Far too competent for this government.

[fox_up_north]

1 hour ago, HighPeakFox said:

Under the current voting system, I respectfully suggest that this is a wonderfully idealistic yet naive notion.

While I get that, I was more suggesting that if it's unlikely a Tory is going to take your seat then vote for who you want. 

[Legend_in_blue]

He keeps on harping on about the 2k tax bill on this BBC interview. 

 

He's a liar.

[urban.spaceman]

55 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Has anyone ever been on a rollercoaster in a suit before

 

My mind instantly went to The Parole Officer

 

 

[Paninistickers]

44 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

Part of Harborough, which was last Labour in 1950.

 

Seems to be predicted to go red on most maps I've seen lately, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Find it hard to believe. It's a good example of a urban/suburban place such as Oadby - which generally have been Lib Dem wards over the years - being crowbarred into a constituency where farming, hunting and wealth are predominant. 

 

It has stolen the 25k people of Oadby of a representative MP for 60 odd years. 

 

Another reason to despise FPTP 

 

 

[HighPeakFox]

31 minutes ago, fox_up_north said:

While I get that, I was more suggesting that if it's unlikely a Tory is going to take your seat then vote for who you want. 

Fair.

[Daggers]

Sunak hides from journos.

 

Davey gets interviewed in a tea cup

 

 

[Paninistickers]

My constituency is new, mid Leicestershire. 

 

A glorious chance for the public to reject the two big parties, set a standard and go for a genuinely local campaigning MP who hasn't got a stupid fcking whip to kowtow to.  

 

Looking at the wards, it's actually fairly even split between Tory and Labour (under normal circumstances) ....which means Labour win..

 

But wouldn't it be nice if we had a Green, Lib Dem MP...or yup, even a  Reform imbecile in. 

 

 

[Voll Blau]

4 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

Find it hard to believe. It's a good example of a urban/suburban place such as Oadby - which generally have been Lib Dem wards over the years - being crowbarred into a constituency where farming, hunting and wealth are predominant. 

 

It has stolen the 25k people of Oadby of a representative MP for 60 odd years. 

 

Another reason to despise FPTP 

 

 

It's not that long ago it was considered a Lib Dem target seat, but that collapsed in 2010 and never recovered.

 

Think folks at the other end of that particular constituency are hopefully finally waking up to the fact local young people have been priced out of living in their own hometown, and that whichever Tory is parachuted in can no longer take their vote for granted.

 

Fully on board with your FPTP point.

[HighPeakFox]

5 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

But wouldn't it be nice if we had a Green, Lib Dem MP. ..or yup, even a  Reform imbecile in. 

Yes, Yes...........hard NO. Nothing nice about the fresh face of a cosplay Fascist.

[Daggers]

 

[Paninistickers]

13 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

Yes, Yes...........hard NO. Nothing nice about the fresh face of a cosplay Fascist.

They are absurd. Even 50 reform MPs wouldn't make a dent. In fact, it'd highlight thier absurdity. Give the fools enough rope...

 

But, simply, I'm just not prepared to vote for either Tory or Labour as they just hold the steering wheel and invent policy according to Focus groups and AI. The both of them are broken idealogically. 

[urban.spaceman]

8 minutes ago, Daggers said:

 

"Charlie's Aunt"

[HighPeakFox]

1 minute ago, Paninistickers said:

They are absurd. Even 50 reform MPs wouldn't make a dent. In fact, it'd highlight thier absurdity. Give the fools enough rope...

 

But, simply, I'm just not prepared to vote for either Tory or Labour as they just hold the steering wheel and invent policy according to Focus groups and AI. The both of them are broken idealogically. 

I respect that opinion, of course. However, 50 reform MPs would send a shudder through every sane individual for what is coming... I am sure you've already done so, but look at who their backers are and how they run themselves - it's a plc, Farage cannot be ousted. That doesn't bode well for anyone who wishes to have anny form of democracy.

[Paninistickers]

4 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

I respect that opinion, of course. However, 50 reform MPs would send a shudder through every sane individual for what is coming... I am sure you've already done so, but look at who their backers are and how they run themselves - it's a plc, Farage cannot be ousted. That doesn't bode well for anyone who wishes to have anny form of democracy.

I get you....and I agree.with your virw more.than I disagree

 

I think what I'm trying to reconcile is that I hold views that lean both left and right. I'm sure the same goes for many..which means it's super hard to find a political home to comfortably vote for. 

[HighPeakFox]

6 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

I get you....and I agree.with your virw more.than I disagree

 

I think what I'm trying to reconcile is that I hold views that lean both left and right. I'm sure the same goes for many..which means it's super hard to find a political home to comfortably vote for. 

Yes, again I agree... sometimes we have to go for the best worst option. Ideally, we deserve better, absolutely.

[BenTheFox]

Labour are going to win a thumping majority. They will have people voting for them for the first time in decades and others for the first time. How secure is their majority on that basis? Afterall, we saw many people voting tory for the first time ever in 2019 and myself along with many others thought they were going to in government for another decade. 

 

The Conservative voters that are moving over to Labour are doing so mostly because they are so disgusted with the tories. My parents for example are not typical Labour voters but they look as though they'll be voting Labour this time out. For a lot of people, Truss's minibudget was the straw that broke the Camel's back. In my parents' case, Covid is what did it for them. They still feel very bitter about partygate, Cummings, Michelle Mone etc. and who can blame them?

[Robo61]

15 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

I stand corrected apologies. 

 

I lived in Hinckley & Bosworth for voting purposes in 2010 & 2015 and LD came second on both of those occasions. 

 

Stopthetories.vote aren't currently giving a tactical vote recommendation for the constituency yet. 

Labour came 2nd in both 2017 and 2019 and https://tactical.vote  are recommending Labour in 2024.  According to the latest MRP poll on voting intentions in H&B Labour are on 32.85% Tories 32.24% with the LD a distant 4th behind reform on 11.14%.  So a tactical vote for LD in Hinckley &  Bosworth will let the Tories retain the seat.

[urban.spaceman]

In decades hence we'll think of Rishi Sunak as a national treasure.

[Robo61]

21 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

I get you....and I agree.with your virw more.than I disagree

 

I think what I'm trying to reconcile is that I hold views that lean both left and right. I'm sure the same goes for many..which means it's super hard to find a political home to comfortably vote for. 

Well if you have inconsistent views I am not sure how would even invent a party that you could find home with doing yourself and getting zero support as nobody else would perfectly align with you.

[Paninistickers]

13 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

The Conservative voters that are moving over to Labour

It's this I'm really struggling to understand. 

 

What has Kier Starmer (and his largely unknown shadow front bench) said or offered that makes people think, **** yeah,.I want a bit of that! 

 

That the Tories need booting out is self evident. But why Labour? Wtf have they said to earn the right to govern? 

 

Any self respecting pissed.off Tory should surely vote Lib Dem or Reform 

[HighPeakFox]

2 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

It's this I'm really struggling to understand. 

 

What has Kier Starmer (and his largely unknown shadow front bench) said or offered that makes people think, **** yeah,.I want a bit of that! 

 

That the Tories need booting out is self evident. But why Labour? Wtf have they said to earn the right to govern? 

 

Any self respecting pissed.off Tory should surely vote Lib Dem or Reform 

I think a shadow fron bench tends to be relatively unknown after 14 years in opposition. The same was true of the Tories in 2010. The difference is that (up to now) the majority of our press has been in hock to the Tory party, and go out of their way to not tell us who the opposition are.

 

Oh, and you're one of many who spells Kier like Pier, instead of Keir, like Weir  

[BenTheFox]

5 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

It's this I'm really struggling to understand. 

 

What has Kier Starmer (and his largely unknown shadow front bench) said or offered that makes people think, **** yeah,.I want a bit of that! 

 

That the Tories need booting out is self evident. But why Labour? Wtf have they said to earn the right to govern? 

 

Any self respecting pissed.off Tory should surely vote Lib Dem or Reform 

Labour are by far the most likely alternative to the tories to win an election. Also, Starmer has shifted to the right to a point where they effectively look like a one-nation tory party. The more right-wing tory voters are moving to reform. 

Edited 10 June by BenTheFox

[StanSP]

48 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

I get you....and I agree.with your virw more.than I disagree

 

I think what I'm trying to reconcile is that I hold views that lean both left and right. I'm sure the same goes for many..which means it's super hard to find a political home to comfortably vote for. 

That's fair enough and understandable. 

But no-ones home should be at Reform. 

 

Notice how in the debate the other day Farage was all too quick to point the finger (perhaps rightly so) at the two main party reps for their records and 'promises' that he thinks they won't stick to. 

 

But did he offer his own policies? Did he offer his own solutions? Any costings or plans to resolve what he and his party believe are such fundamental wrong decisions made so far? Any indications as to how to resolve immigration levels or cuts in resources under Tories? The answer to many of those is probably 'no' and I very much doubt their manifesto will provide a clearer light on them either. 

 

Also only have to look at the type of person they're hiring and recruiting and get endorsements from - proper extremist views from the likes of Robinson and Lee Anderson. 

 

If anyone thinks Reform is their political home then they deserve everything coming to them. People purely interested in their own careers and not really a true care for their constituents they claim to fight on behalf of. Look how they conned people into voting for sunlit uplands of Brexit and then pretty much disappeared when it went tits up because they had nothing else to offer. 

[Jon the Hat]

11 hours ago, StanSP said:

One coconut per year relating to the game

 

No chance. 

Is coconut a phrase often used people of Tamil / SriLankan descent in a racist context? I Suspect you are all projecting, but I don't know the guy so it is impossible to judge.