Election prediction time

[Jon the Hat]

2 hours ago, Paninistickers said:

It's this I'm really struggling to understand. 

 

What has Kier Starmer (and his largely unknown shadow front bench) said or offered that makes people think, **** yeah,.I want a bit of that! 

 

That the Tories need booting out is self evident. But why Labour? Wtf have they said to earn the right to govern? 

 

Any self respecting pissed.off Tory should surely vote Lib Dem or Reform 

This is arguable of any opposition ever after such a long period out of power.  They have no record, they have very people still around from 14+ years ago.  They are also however deliberately delaying policy announcements because they know very well the Tories will try to counter them, so there is now a standoff.  Give it a week or so and things will become clearer.  I must say Angela Rayner on the NewsAgents podcast yesterday made a lot of sense.

[Jon the Hat]

3 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

He keeps on harping on about the 2k tax bill on this BBC interview. 

 

He's a liar.

The challenge to Labour of the 2K tax bill is that Labour are in the difficult position of on one hand saying they will not increaser the 3 main levers of tax, and on the other hand saying things will improve, and also trying to not to about the need for further spending cuts in their non core areas.  It is easy to suggest it doesn't all add up.  However the Tories are now promising tax cuts and more Help to Buy funding, which doesn't sound too costed either..  Its all bollocks.

[urban.spaceman]

[Jon the Hat]

13 hours ago, Greg2607 said:

agreed. seems very genuine and authentic. 

 

I was very firmly Lib Dems in my early voting "career" as they were the most likely to unseat my local MP.... but having moved house that isn't the case any more and feels like a wasted vote in the FPTP system.  I'm really hoping that there is some tactical voting at this election and we see a big resurgence in the Lib Dems and the number of seats they win. 

 

If you fancy a change from the Conversatives tom, Them Lib Dems are the best alternative for you in Hinckley & Bosworth but even then it would have to be a huge swing. 

 

in fact, if the Tories lose Hinckley & Bosworth then they will be in hellish territory in terms of overall seats, as it's one of the safest tory seats ever. it's been blue for my entire life that's for sure. 

Same in Horsham where my vote will be cast (last UK residence) where there is sod all chance of Labour, but if Lib Dems overturn a 20k plus majority there, flippin heck.

[Jon the Hat]

10 hours ago, urban.spaceman said:

Ouch

 

 

So he faced the law and the fines were the consequences.  Was it their point?  Silly post.

[StanSP]

6 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Is coconut a phrase often used people of Tamil / SriLankan descent in a racist context? I Suspect you are all projecting, but I don't know the guy so it is impossible to judge.

Coconut is a derogatory racist term used to describe someone deemed to be 'brown on the outside, white on the inside'. Someone with darker skin and non-white heritage but acts 'English' or 'western'. 

 

Whether it's 'often' a phrase used is irrelevant. 

 

Having been on the end of being called it it's most definitely a racist term. Even if it was only once. 

[Jon the Hat]

4 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Coconut is a derogatory racist term used to describe someone deemed to be 'brown on the outside, white on the inside'. Someone with darker skin and non-white heritage but acts 'English' or 'western'. 

 

Whether it's 'often' a phrase used is irrelevant. 

 

Having been on the end of being called it it's most definitely a racist term. Even if it was only once. 

It does seem suspect I agree.  I find it weird to see used by one ethnic minority to another is all, hence sitting on the fence.

[Sly]

7 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Coconut is a derogatory racist term used to describe someone deemed to be 'brown on the outside, white on the inside'. Someone with darker skin and non-white heritage but acts 'English' or 'western'. 

 

Whether it's 'often' a phrase used is irrelevant. 

 

Having been on the end of being called it it's most definitely a racist term. Even if it was only once. 

I’ve never heard this. If I’d heard someone called this it would have gone straight over my head.

[Sly]

8 hours ago, Paninistickers said:

It's this I'm really struggling to understand. 

 

What has Kier Starmer (and his largely unknown shadow front bench) said or offered that makes people think, **** yeah,.I want a bit of that! 

 

That the Tories need booting out is self evident. But why Labour? Wtf have they said to earn the right to govern? 

 

Any self respecting pissed.off Tory should surely vote Lib Dem or Reform 

I fully understand this. 
 

I’ve said this a few times.

 

The Conservatives have done themselves damage and whilst I like Rishi in isolation, Truss and Boris had already done the damage which would hurt them.

 

Labour have offered nothing at the moment that makes me want to see them in power. Couple that with Starmer being as bland as can be and I just don’t see what they offered compared to other parties, other than being a bigger name. 

[Sampson]

Lib Dem’s down to 3/1 to get 2nd most seats and be official oppositionn.

[Greg2607]

6 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

This is arguable of any opposition ever after such a long period out of power.  They have no record, they have very people still around from 14+ years ago.  They are also however deliberately delaying policy announcements because they know very well the Tories will try to counter them, so there is now a standoff.  Give it a week or so and things will become clearer.  I must say Angela Rayner on the NewsAgents podcast yesterday made a lot of sense.

She's a pretty solid operator and I'm sure lots of people can identify with her. She's just a normal person, uses normal language and as much as is possible with a politician, says it how it is. She's obviously got ability as she's dragged herself up from being a single mum and a carer, to potentially being deputy prime minister. That doesn't happen by luck or happenchance. 

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp335p7x315o

 

A good breakdown. And it's good to see that everyone (with the exception of "short term self-interest and who cares if hundreds of millions elsewhere die" Reform) is singing from pretty much the same hymn sheet on the overall objective.

[kenny]

7 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Is coconut a phrase often used people of Tamil / SriLankan descent in a racist context? I Suspect you are all projecting, but I don't know the guy so it is impossible to judge.

Rupa huq used it last year referring to kwasi kwarteng

[Raj]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

Coconut is a derogatory racist term used to describe someone deemed to be 'brown on the outside, white on the inside'. Someone with darker skin and non-white heritage but acts 'English' or 'western'. 

 

Whether it's 'often' a phrase used is irrelevant. 

 

Having been on the end of being called it it's most definitely a racist term. Even if it was only once. 

Yep Stan's  right, also Bounty Bar like Suella Braverman!!!

Edited 11 June by Raj

[Daggers]

11 hours ago, urban.spaceman said:

In decades hence we'll think of Rishi Sunak as a national treasure.

What, as in like Nick Cage, most of his in front of camera work lacked any conviction or believability?

[SkidsFox]

I'm still wondering if Reform will get any seats at all. They're starting to get their "oddballs" publicised eg their candidate for Battle and Bexhill, who think Churchill was awful and we shouldn't have fought Hitler.  Of course Farage is favourite to take Clacton, but I think it's going to be closer than most think.

[SkidsFox]

Just now, SkidsFox said:

I'm still wondering if Reform will get any seats at all. They're starting to get their "oddballs" publicised eg their candidate for Battle and Bexhill, who think Churchill was awful and we shouldn't have fought Hitler.  Of course Farage is favourite to take Clacton, but I think it's going to be closer than most think.

I'm guilty of sitting on the fence here. Ok, a bold prediction. Farage will fail to win Clacton. 

[Sampson]

3 minutes ago, SkidsFox said:

I'm still wondering if Reform will get any seats at all. They're starting to get their "oddballs" publicised eg their candidate for Battle and Bexhill, who think Churchill was awful and we shouldn't have fought Hitler.  Of course Farage is favourite to take Clacton, but I think it's going to be closer than most think.

I reckon they won’t actually win more than 2 seats but will have quite a high popular vote.

Their  vote will be only in 1 demographic and spread too much across the entire country to actually make any in roads seats-wise.

Edited 11 June by Sampson

[Daggers]

14 minutes ago, SkidsFox said:

I'm guilty of sitting on the fence here. Ok, a bold prediction. Farage will fail to win Clacton. 

At which point the BBC will make him host of Question Time and extend running time to 6 hours, of which questions will constitute 10 minutes.

[BenTheFox]

5 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I reckon they won’t actually win more than 2 seats but will have quite a high popular vote.

Their  vote will be only in 1 demographic and spread too much across the entire country to actually make any in roads seats-wise.

And as much as I don't want them to win seats, I can't help but think it's wrong that they could end up with millions of votes and only two seats. I'm pro-proportional representation because I believe in democracy, even if it means that it gives the likes of Farage more seats at the table. It will also give plenty of seats at the table to more progressive viewpoints. 

I understand that PR is not perfect but FPTP is failing.

[StanSP]

I wonder what voter turnout will be like. 

 

Last time it reached over 70% was for the Brexit referendum (72.2%). Last time over that amount for a general election was 1997 (71.4%). Then staggeringly dropped to 59.4% in 2001 which was the lowest ever since 1918.

 

I'm wondering if we'll see similar levels to 2001 purely because so much of the population are just disillusioned with politics and politicians in general, let alone the current government. 

 

Perhaps it'll be more 60-65% but it wouldn't surprise me if it dropped below the record 57.2% from 1918.

[Daggers]

24 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

I understand that PR is not perfect but FPTP is failing.

On the other hand, FPTP is succeeding - because it's keeping these morons from having direct access to the levers of power.

 

You don't climb onto a plane and everyone in the cabin has a vote on whether Kevin from Doncaster should fly today because he has a really appealing personality. Sarah, the actual pilot is really boring, it said so in The Sun.

 

You don't go to hospital to find that Zafrina, a woman with one arm, physical Tourettes and poor vision will be performing your surgery because everyone in the local area voted for her and her strident opinions on the NHS.

 

It's insane to allow idiots to exercise greater control in the name of giving greater equality to "progressive" viewpoints - personally, I'd use regressive in place. We saw what happens when we do that - the country is £140 billion worse off for it. 

[Raj]

Im actually thinking about Lib Dems instead of Labour. My seat was about 64% Tory scvm last time so doubt it would make any difference anyway

[Daggers]

3 minutes ago, Daggers said:

On the other hand, FPTP is succeeding - because it's keeping these morons from having direct access to the levers of power.

 

You don't climb onto a plane and everyone in the cabin has a vote on whether Kevin from Doncaster should fly today because he has a really appealing personality. Sarah, the actual pilot is really boring, it said so in The Sun.

 

You don't go to hospital to find that Zafrina, a woman with one arm, physical Tourettes and poor vision will be performing your surgery because everyone in the local area voted for her and her strident opinions on the NHS.

 

It's insane to allow idiots to exercise greater control in the name of giving greater equality to "progressive" viewpoints - personally, I'd use regressive in place. We saw what happens when we do that - the country is £140 billion worse off for it. 

Because this old cvnt and everyone who thinks like him can fvck the fvck off.

 

 

[Sampson]

1 minute ago, Raj said:

Im actually thinking about Lib Dems instead of Labour. My seat was about 64% Tory scvm last time so doubt it would make any difference anyway

I’ve been considering it given they’ve come out and said they support rejoining the single market long term and I’d love to have them as official opposition which seems a genuine realistic proposition now which is crazy in itself. But realistically Labour are the only ones who can beat the Tories in my seat and that has to ultimately take priority.