Election prediction time

[Bilo]

Streeting is obliterating Cleverly here. It's good to watch. 

[BenTheFox]

I shouldn't feel sorry for Sunak, I really shouldn't. However  part of me does. He doesn't deserve any sympathy but ultimately he's the one carrying the can for failures of previous leaders as well as all of his faults. 

[Bilo]

YouGov snap poll is pretty damning. 

[Mickyblueeyes]

I struggle with both of these leaders and their senior politicians. I mean it’s not often you would admire a politician but in this case neither stand out as exceptional. A lot of people I speak with agree change is needed but very few I speak to think Starmer/Labour is that change - it’s just they are not the disastrous tories
 

Thought it be easier as the campaign went on but it really isn’t. Just got to concentrate on the local candidate I suppose. 

[Otis]

20 minutes ago, Bilo said:

The trouble is he was in Grimsby, where you could buy a six-bedroom house and a lifetime of sexual favours for half that.

Yes, £425k was the limit for all FTBs not just those unfortunate to live in Grimsby.

[BenTheFox]

6 minutes ago, Mickyblueeyes said:

I struggle with both of these leaders and their senior politicians. I mean it’s not often you would admire a politician but in this case neither stand out as exceptional. A lot of people I speak with agree change is needed but very few I speak to think Starmer/Labour is that change - it’s just they are not the disastrous tories
 

Thought it be easier as the campaign went on but it really isn’t. Just got to concentrate on the local candidate I suppose. 

Labour aren't really offering much change in terms of policy platform. It's more of a change in management. 

[urban.spaceman]

YOU’RE SHIT AHHHHHHHHHHHH

 

 

[Bilo]

7 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

YOU’RE SHIT AHHHHHHHHHHHH

 

 

And YouGov gave the best polling results for Sunak last week...

[urban.spaceman]

No wayyyyyyyyyy

 

 

[Paninistickers]

31 minutes ago, Mickyblueeyes said:

change is needed but very few I speak to think Starmer/Labour is that change - it’s just they are not the disastrous tories

This is the thing. I agree the Tories have not earned a vote after the fiascos since 2016. Eight years of complete shambles. 

 

But sny annoyed Tory voter can't reasonably think, ok,.I wanna endorse Labour. 

 

Labour will win. But disillusioned voters have a unique chance to vote for a third party and send a message;   the biggest open goal in history and labour can only muster, say,  350 seats. Let's see a parliament with 170+ MPs away from the big parties. 

[Daggers]

56 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

Labour aren't really offering much change in terms of policy platform. It's more of a change in management. 

That's not true, eh. They're not offering a different economic backdrop, but they are offering a different focus of priorities.

[westernpark]

John Ashworth doing his best Ben Swain impression on Newsnight.

[Jon the Hat]

This is the intelligence of candidates.  Seriously.

 

Craig Williams: Sunak aide admits placing bet on general election (bbc.com)

[urban.spaceman]

Labour manifesto day. This best not be shit. They don’t need a worldie. Just a Vardy tap in.

[Sampson]

34 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Labour manifesto day. This best not be shit. They don’t need a worldie. Just a Vardy tap in.

I’m very interested how far or watered down it would be. Starmer looked promising when he first became leader but seems to have rolled back all his promises and taken them off his website since then so we’ll see how much is actually in it. 

[RobHawk]

19 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I’m very interested how far or watered down it would be. Starmer looked promising when he first became leader but seems to have rolled back all his promises and taken them off his website since then so we’ll see how much is actually in it. 

There won't be much detail, Starmer knows they can't currently afford detail and he's made the correct decision to only promise what they can cost. 

 

I think alot will be more about culture and ethos and what they hope to achieve in the next 10 years but without knowing how much £££ there is to do that, they can't be specific about policies.

 

He said this last night and I felt was quite clear about it but the host seemed to suggest he wasn't being honest and was being evasive which I felt was unfair. 

 

He's made it clear he's looking for growth, if he achieved that growth there will be more tax income in the coffers that will allow him to do more. 

 

But also, look at the last few years, COVID, Ukraine, Gaza, who knows what's around the corner that could effect worldwide markets and make life harder again. 

 

Starmer is not the most exciting but in my eyes the only statement he needs is 'fix the mess' because that will take time but needs to be done as the torys have broken every single part of the country.

 

I'll be voting labour in the seat I live, but am also a big fan of the lib dem, green and plaid campaigns and would happily vote for any of these if they were a worthwhile vote in my constituency. So even if you can't get over Starmer being boring, there's still a great chance to add some diversity of views to Westminster and wipe the Tories out for good. 

[StanSP]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

Labour manifesto day. This best not be shit. They don’t need a worldie. Just a Vardy tap in.

Hopefully no Frank Sinclair pointless and avoidable own goals

[urban.spaceman]

Let me know when you see it. 
 

[StanSP]

3 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Let me know when you see it. 
 

Holy shit she's still alive! 

[Sampson]

29 minutes ago, RobHawk said:

There won't be much detail, Starmer knows they can't currently afford detail and he's made the correct decision to only promise what they can cost. 

 

I think alot will be more about culture and ethos and what they hope to achieve in the next 10 years but without knowing how much £££ there is to do that, they can't be specific about policies.

 

He said this last night and I felt was quite clear about it but the host seemed to suggest he wasn't being honest and was being evasive which I felt was unfair. 

 

He's made it clear he's looking for growth, if he achieved that growth there will be more tax income in the coffers that will allow him to do more. 

 

But also, look at the last few years, COVID, Ukraine, Gaza, who knows what's around the corner that could effect worldwide markets and make life harder again. 

 

Starmer is not the most exciting but in my eyes the only statement he needs is 'fix the mess' because that will take time but needs to be done as the torys have broken every single part of the country.

 

I'll be voting labour in the seat I live, but am also a big fan of the lib dem, green and plaid campaigns and would happily vote for any of these if they were a worthwhile vote in my constituency. So even if you can't get over Starmer being boring, there's still a great chance to add some diversity of views to Westminster and wipe the Tories out for good. 

Nothing to do with Starmer being boring, I’d happily take boring in a pm if they make the country better and let’s face it, that’s not difficult given how far it’s been run into the ground the past 14 years, and I get it’s not an overnight fix, it would just be nice if they ultimately laid out long term goals in the same way the LibDems said that the ultimate goal is to rejoin the single market but that’s probably an election cycle away (not saying it has to be on this topic just used as an example).

[urban.spaceman]

That bit at the end  

 

 

[Greg2607]

I suspect the labour manifesto will only be about 30 pages long.  Paint the vision, but not give too much room for it to be ripped apart. 

 

"a decade of renewal" will be the overarching theme with some overarching theory of how that will be delivered. 

[urban.spaceman]

 

[Robo61]

29 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

I suspect the labour manifesto will only be about 30 pages long.  Paint the vision, but not give too much room for it to be ripped apart. 

 

"a decade of renewal" will be the overarching theme with some overarching theory of how that will be delivered. 

And thats how an opposition manifesto should be and is not overly dissimilar to Blair's first manifesto.  How can you make promises on detailed policy until you know how much mioney there is to play with.  And I suspect they will find the public finances to be in an even worst state than they think they are leaving them with little room for manoeuvre.  They should not have made promises on tax beyond the direction in which they wanted to go to raise additional revenue from,  but I also recognise how difficult that would be or the Labour Party given the press obsession with taxation.

Edited 13 June by Robo61

[Sampson]

28 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

The problem with the “socialist state” stuff is it’s too long ago now. The Berlin Wall came down in 1989, you have to be 53 to have that in your adult conscience mind. The majority of voters don’t have that negative association of the eastern block to it, hence why the right in the uk only makes headways to older voters with this rhetoric. Younger people have instead seen the failiures of austerity and neoliberalism first hand so have that as a far more negative association.
 

Not making judgement on anyone’s opinions of either philosophy, just don’t understand why the Tories think “socialist state” will wash off on anyone under 50, it’s too long ago and no one under that age has any real reference points to it. Just makes me feel like they’re still in the headspace of the world is still like it was and the population still is like it was in the 1980s.

 

They’re going on about a bogeymonster that the majority of the voting public won’t remember.

Edited 13 June by Sampson