Election prediction time

[RoboFox]

4 minutes ago, Sampson said:

The problem with the “socialist state” stuff is it’s too long ago now. The Berlin Wall came down in 1989, you have to be 53 to have that in your adult conscience mind. The majority of voters don’t have that negative association of the eastern block to it, hence why the right in the uk only makes headways to older voters with this rhetoric. Younger people have instead seen the failiures of neoliberalism first hand so have that as a far more negative association.
 

Not making judgement on anyone’s opinions of either philosophy, just don’t understand why the Tories think “socialist state” will wash off on anyone under 50, it’s too long ago and no one under that age has any real reference points to it. Just makes me feel like they’re still in the headspace of the world is still like it was and the population still is like it was in the 1980s.

 

They’re going on about a bogeymonster that the majority of the voting public won’t remember.

 

In the US, "socialism" and "communism" seem to become synonymous over the years, and the effects of the so-called Red Scare in the 50s still rings true with many Americans such was the strength of the propaganda machine. It's a severe and persistent allergy that is passed down through generations. 

 

They're probably hoping that the proliferation of that opinion via social media will have rubbed off on younger voters here in the UK. 

 

That's the only way I can get my head around it. I do agree though, it's old hat. 

[LVFox]

Expecting a rather non-committal vague manifesto from Labour, which shouldn't really affect their election hopes.

 

In all honesty, not sure if that makes me feel there is no real plan, or that the plan is more radical than most think and they just don't want to risk rocking the boat.

[Torquay Gunner]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

That bit at the end  

 

 

That’s pretty cringe tbf. 🤣

[Innovindil]

5 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

This is the intelligence of candidates.  Seriously.

 

Craig Williams: Sunak aide admits placing bet on general election (bbc.com)

Just throwing it out there in line with yesterday's argument. This is the trouble with candidates/mp's being disconnected from the people. 

 

If I was on a sure fire 5/1 bet, I'd have every man and woman over the age of 18 I've ever met on it for a slice of the pie. I wouldn't be slapping the bet on my own online account and getting in trouble for it. 

 

Dumb **** had a 500% return over 2 months and shat the bed with it. 

[Greg2607]

51 minutes ago, Robo61 said:

And thats how an opposition manifesto should be and is not overly dissimilar to Blair's first manifesto.  How can you make promises on detailed policy until you know how much mioney there is to play with.  And I suspect they will find the public finances to be in an even worst state than they think they are leaving them with little room for manoeuvre.  They should not have made promises on tax beyond the direction in which they wanted to go to raise additional revenue from,  but I also recognise how difficult that would be or the Labour Party given the press obsession with taxation.

turns out i was wrong! - The Labour manifesto will be A5 and 135 pages long.

[Lionator]

Starmer is wild. The bloke loves football, his favourite band is orange juice, clearly loves a good craft IPA, the kind of quintessential middle class dad who listens to 6music and cooks Ottolenghi recipes. Yet he sets himself up as the most boring man on earth. Show that inner charisma young sir. 

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, LVFox said:

Expecting a rather non-committal vague manifesto from Labour, which shouldn't really affect their election hopes.

 

In all honesty, not sure if that makes me feel there is no real plan, or that the plan is more radical than most think and they just don't want to risk rocking the boat.

This election is breaking the normals

a majority of 80 should be v tough to overturn. This is going to be a landslide overturn of the like we’ve rarely seen before (if ever).

yes, reform are splitting the Tory vote to a degree but even without them, Labour would be looking at a three figure majority 

 

my point is that any party looking at a three figure majority wouldn’t care too much about misleading the electorate in the first five years by bringing things in that we’re not in their manifesto (and probably should have been). They would be v confident about being re elected in five years time.  This election is showing that those expectations are no longer valid. 

[Daggers]

45 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Starmer is wild. The bloke loves football, his favourite band is orange juice, clearly loves a good craft IPA, the kind of quintessential middle class dad who listens to 6music and cooks Ottolenghi recipes. Yet he sets himself up as the most boring man on earth. Show that inner charisma young sir. 

Went to a Wedding Present gig in 2023. 

[Daggers]

 

[Greg2607]

Apparently Labour Don't have a plan, but if you do want to read their plan then the manifesto can be found here - https://labour.org.uk/change/

 

Once in-Depth do an analysis on it, i'll post it in here for a simplified version. 

 

also, if you want to see the manifesto launch in his own words, there is a live link here - 

 

[st albans fox]

I’m also getting a bit tired of the right painting starmer as ‘boring’ and ‘robotic’ 

 

who cares ? 

It’s what they do, not what they look like or how they behave in front of the cameras  !!

 

delighted that we are going to have a PM who doesn’t have any charisma - he will be judged purely on what he delivers 

 

fwiw, I don’t know who I’m voting for on July 4 but I do know who is going to be PM 

 

 

[Greg2607]

29 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I’m also getting a bit tired of the right painting starmer as ‘boring’ and ‘robotic’ 

 

who cares ? 

It’s what they do, not what they look like or how they behave in front of the cameras  !!

 

delighted that we are going to have a PM who doesn’t have any charisma - he will be judged purely on what he delivers 

 

fwiw, I don’t know who I’m voting for on July 4 but I do know who is going to be PM 

 

 

I'm sure lots of people are on that same journey.   I know we have issues with politics threads on Foxestalk.... but it's why I want to genuinely give a balanced view for everyone and provide the materials for people to do their own research and make an informed decision on which manifesto's are right for them and their families. 

 

Clearly, no party is ever going to be able to appeal to every single idiosyncrasy and permutation that every person in the UK faces.... 

 

Personally, I think Starmer came across really well in his manifesto launch....  Confident, assured and a bit of charisma dare I say. 

 

I personally believe in the vision.  So much so, that I took a decision at the weekend, to get out and support our local Labour candidate knocking doors and speaking to people. 

 

What WAS clear to me, is that lots of people of ready for a change.  It's what that change that looks like that people get to decide. 

 

It was also really clear, that not everyone supports the Labour vision because of the personal impact of some of those policies.   VAT on private schools came up as the main reason that people wouldn't vote labour.... 

 

I've also believe though that I want to live in a society where fairness and equity is a mainstay. 

[Greg2607]

here's the latest analysis on the green party manifesto btw for those interested - 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/bbcindepth

 

 

[Torquay Gunner]

3 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

I'm sure lots of people are on that same journey.   I know we have issues with politics threads on Foxestalk.... but it's why I want to genuinely give a balanced view for everyone and provide the materials for people to do their own research and make an informed decision on which manifesto's are right for them and their families. 

 

Clearly, no party is ever going to be able to appeal to every single idiosyncrasy and permutation that every person in the UK faces.... 

 

Personally, I think Starmer came across really well in his manifesto launch....  Confident, assured and a bit of charisma dare I say. 

 

I personally believe in the vision.  So much so, that I took a decision at the weekend, to get out and support our local Labour candidate knocking doors and speaking to people. 

 

What WAS clear to me, is that lots of people of ready for a change.  It's what that change that looks like that people get to decide. 

 

It was also really clear, that not everyone supports the Labour vision because of the personal impact of some of those policies.   VAT on private schools came up as the main reason that people wouldn't vote labour.... 

 

I've also believe though that I want to live in a society where fairness and equity is a mainstay. 

Ultimately, no one party should be in power for a decade and a half, whether the tories or Labour.  We have seen what happened under the last 3 long term governments, it bred arrogance, complacency, entitlement incompetence and a fair bit of corruption.   It is clear Keir Starmer will win this election and he seems like  a relatively normal human being.  I really hope he can turn it around, because there is so much wrong with this country, it must difficult to know where to start. 
 

Just picking up what you said about VAT on private schools, it is hard to believe( and I am not disbelieving you) that would be one of the main reasons not to vote Labour.  It must only be a tiny percentage of people that can afford to send their child to a private school.  The guy that asked that exact question last night understandably did not get a lot of sympathy! 

 

 

 

[Greg2607]

1 minute ago, Torquay Gunner said:

Ultimately, no one party should be in power for a decade and a half, whether the tories or Labour.  We have seen what happened under the last 3 long term governments, it bred arrogance, complacency, entitlement incompetence and a fair bit of corruption.   It is clear Keir Starmer will win this election and he seems like  a relatively normal human being.  I really hope he can turn it around, because there is so much wrong with this country, it must difficult to know where to start. 
 

Just picking up what you said about VAT on private schools, it is hard to believe( and I am not disbelieving you) that would be one of the main reasons not to vote Labour.  It must only be a tiny percentage of people that can afford to send their child to a private school.  The guy that asked that exact question last night understandably did not get a lot of sympathy! 

 

 

 

I agree on the VAT piece.  To give some context though, we were door knocking in Ashby De La Zouch, which has some degree of affluence locally AND we were door knocking on a Davidsons estate where even the cheapest house is about £500,000 and most are around £650,000 to £850,000. 

[RoboFox]

12 hours ago, st albans fox said:

I’m also getting a bit tired of the right painting starmer as ‘boring’ and ‘robotic’ 

 

who cares ? 

It’s what they do, not what they look like or how they behave in front of the cameras  !!

 

delighted that we are going to have a PM who doesn’t have any charisma - he will be judged purely on what he delivers 

 

fwiw, I don’t know who I’m voting for on July 4 but I do know who is going to be PM 

 

 

 

Unfortunately the likes of Johnson and Trump made politics about personalities, not policies and the electorate absolutely lap it up. It's endemic. 
 

Edited 13 June by RoboFox

[RoboFox]

8 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

This is the intelligence of candidates.  Seriously.

 

Craig Williams: Sunak aide admits placing bet on general election (bbc.com)

I'm starting to think they're taking the piss and trying to throw this election. 

[Daggers]

22 minutes ago, Torquay Gunner said:

Ultimately, no one party should be in power for a decade and a half, whether the tories or Labour.  We have seen what happened under the last 3 long term governments, it bred arrogance, complacency, entitlement incompetence and a fair bit of corruption.  

 

Are we talking about the same Brown admin that proposed to introduce a new Ministerial Code created by a cross party committee to concrete standards and behaviour? The Brown administration wasn't brought down by "arrogance, complacency, entitlement incompetence" or "corruption", it was levelled by the fallout from Blair's war and the public's inability to understand who was responsible for sub-prime mortgage lending - believing the government to have caused a global crash because they're morons.

[The Fox Covert]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

I’m also getting a bit tired of the right painting starmer as ‘boring’ and ‘robotic’ 

 

who cares ? 

It’s what they do, not what they look like or how they behave in front of the cameras  !!

 

delighted that we are going to have a PM who doesn’t have any charisma - he will be judged purely on what he delivers 

 

fwiw, I don’t know who I’m voting for on July 4 but I do know who is going to be PM 

 

 

Winston Churchill once described his deputy prime minister Clement Attlee during the coalition National Government wartime years as 'a modest man with a lot to be modest about'. That modest man lead Labour to a landslide victory in 1945 and the most successful Labour government in history.

[The Fox Covert]

Feel free to download and put up in your window!

[Torquay Gunner]

40 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Are we talking about the same Brown admin that proposed to introduce a new Ministerial Code created by a cross party committee to concrete standards and behaviour? The Brown administration wasn't brought down by "arrogance, complacency, entitlement incompetence" or "corruption", it was levelled by the fallout from Blair's war and the public's inability to understand who was responsible for sub-prime mortgage lending - believing the government to have caused a global crash because they're morons.

I am talking about the Labour government overall.  Brown was unlucky in that the global crash happened on his watch, as did the expenses scandal.  However, I seem to remember that it was mostly Labour MPs that were convicted as a direct result of that scandal, Denis MacShane a former Labour minister was sent to prison for false accounting in a separate investigation a few years after that.  I think a lot of people thought that Brown was a poor communicator, not cut out to be PM.

[Foxdiamond]

5 hours ago, RoboFox said:

 

In the US, "socialism" and "communism" seem to become synonymous over the years, and the effects of the so-called Red Scare in the 50s still rings true with many Americans such was the strength of the propaganda machine. It's a severe and persistent allergy that is passed down through generations. 

 

They're probably hoping that the proliferation of that opinion via social media will have rubbed off on younger voters here in the UK. 

 

That's the only way I can get my head around it. I do agree though, it's old hat. 

Crazy that anybody thinks any past Labour government or Starmer's party was or is anything like the old eastern block. You are right though the anti Labour machine trots out this old tripe and often scores points. I think this is one of the reasons Labour is not more radical. 

[Daggers]

1 hour ago, Torquay Gunner said:

I am talking about the Labour government overall.  Brown was unlucky in that the global crash happened on his watch, as did the expenses scandal.  However, I seem to remember that it was mostly Labour MPs that were convicted as a direct result of that scandal, Denis MacShane a former Labour minister was sent to prison for false accounting in a separate investigation a few years after that.  I think a lot of people thought that Brown was a poor communicator, not cut out to be PM.

Without the decline in popularity due to the war and an economic environment created by global events, the only main issue with the expenses scandal was that it came about due to retroactive application - so expenses that were allowable suddenly became unallowable in the past.
 

The media painted Brown as a poor communicator, they painted Cameron as a shiny new Blair, something he leant into. The media and the public were stupid. Incredibly stupid. Brown was head and shoulders the most intelligent and economically literate of our last ten PMs. 
 

Had we voted Brown back in we’d not have suffered the swinging reversals in social care we’ve experienced. He wasn’t in charge of a Major style administration - that was full of corrupt inept w@nkers. 

[The Doctor]

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/zack-polanski-deputy-green-party-hypnotherapy-womens-breasts/

 

my "I watched a green party political broadcast and all I got were these massive tits" shirt is encouraging a lot of questions already answered by my shirt

[Foxdiamond]

1 hour ago, The Fox Covert said:

Winston Churchill once described his deputy prime minister Clement Attlee during the coalition National Government wartime years as 'a modest man with a lot to be modest about'. That modest man lead Labour to a landslide victory in 1945 and the most successful Labour government in history.

I think even Churchill knew Attlee was a capable deputy during WW2 and as you say turned out to be a successful premier. Probably the opposite of Sunak that he was middle class but cared deeply about the poor. Also did his bit in the army in WW1. Insisted on attending Churchill's funeral despite his own frail health. No going home early for him.