Election prediction time

[Foxdiamond]

2 hours ago, RoboFox said:

 

Unfortunately the likes of Johnson and Trump made politics about personalities, not policies and the electorate absolutely lap it up. It's endemic. 

Some of the public think running the country is another version of The X Factor, BGT or Love Island

[jgtuk]

10 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Without the decline in popularity due to the war and an economic environment created by global events, the only main issue with the expenses scandal was that it came about due to retroactive application - so expenses that were allowable suddenly became unallowable in the past.
 

The media painted Brown as a poor communicator, they painted Cameron as a shiny new Blair, something he leant into. The media and the public were stupid. Incredibly stupid. Brown was head and shoulders the most intelligent and economically literate of our last ten PMs. 
 

Had we voted Brown back in we’d not have suffered the swinging reversals in social care we’ve experienced. He wasn’t in charge of a Major style administration - that was full of corrupt inept w@nkers. 

THIS ^^^^

 

 

hE SolD AlL ThE GoLd ThOuGh 

[Daggers]

2 minutes ago, jgtuk said:

THIS ^^^^

 

 

hE SolD AlL ThE GoLd ThOuGh 

Homelessness was almost zero

Everyone could see an NHS dentist

You could get same-day doctor appointments

You could rent or buy a house on a normal income

 

Haven’t even started on his cabinet - Darling was rated across the house for his competence. By Christ the shit we’ve had to put up with since. 

[Torquay Gunner]

26 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Without the decline in popularity due to the war and an economic environment created by global events, the only main issue with the expenses scandal was that it came about due to retroactive application - so expenses that were allowable suddenly became unallowable in the past.
 

The media painted Brown as a poor communicator, they painted Cameron as a shiny new Blair, something he leant into. The media and the public were stupid. Incredibly stupid. Brown was head and shoulders the most intelligent and economically literate of our last ten PMs. 
 

Had we voted Brown back in we’d not have suffered the swinging reversals in social care we’ve experienced. He wasn’t in charge of a Major style administration - that was full of corrupt inept w@nkers. 

“Retroactive application”,  a slight euphemism I think.  Many MPs of all sides had their noses in the trough and took the piss.  Some actually committed fraud , which is why they were convicted in a criminal court.  Brown was a poor communicator unfortunately and the rest is history.  

[Torquay Gunner]

44 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Without the decline in popularity due to the war and an economic environment created by global events, the only main issue with the expenses scandal was that it came about due to retroactive application - so expenses that were allowable suddenly became unallowable in the past.
 

The media painted Brown as a poor communicator, they painted Cameron as a shiny new Blair, something he leant into. The media and the public were stupid. Incredibly stupid. Brown was head and shoulders the most intelligent and economically literate of our last ten PMs. 
 

Had we voted Brown back in we’d not have suffered the swinging reversals in social care we’ve experienced. He wasn’t in charge of a Major style administration - that was full of corrupt inept w@nkers. 

“ retroactive application”, slight euphemism I think.  Many MPs of all parties had their snouts in the trough and took the piss, hence the public outrage.  Some MPs actually committed fraud and were convicted of such in a criminal court.   I didn’t need the media to tell me that Brown imo WAS a poor communicator and the rest is history. 

[Torquay Gunner]

Oops though I was editing the one reply!

[Daggers]

11 minutes ago, Torquay Gunner said:

“Retroactive application”,  a slight euphemism I think.  Many MPs of all sides had their noses in the trough and took the piss.  Some actually committed fraud , which is why they were convicted in a criminal court.  Brown was a poor communicator unfortunately and the rest is history.  

Legg applied the regulations retrospectively. Had he not done so there would have been no brouhaha. 
 

That’s a matter of fact. 

[Torquay Gunner]

Just now, Daggers said:

Legg applied the regulations retrospectively. Had he not done so there would have been no brouhaha. 
 

That’s a matter of fact. 

We can agree to disagree then. 

[Daggers]

2 minutes ago, Torquay Gunner said:

“ retroactive application”, slight euphemism I think.  Many MPs of all parties had their snouts in the trough and took the piss, hence the public outrage.  Some MPs actually committed fraud and were convicted of such in a criminal court.   I didn’t need the media to tell me that Brown imo WAS a poor communicator and the rest is history. 

Have you ever listened to any Brown speech ever?

 

He's a captivating speaker. The idea he’s a poor communicator is simply for the birds. 

[Daggers]

Just now, Torquay Gunner said:

We can agree to disagree then. 

Go ahead and disagree with facts all you want, it doesn’t change them. 

[Torquay Gunner]

3 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Have you ever listened to any Brown speech ever?

 

He's a captivating speaker. The idea he’s a poor communicator is simply for the birds. 

Have not heard him recently, but yeah I thought he didn’t get his message across well enough.

[Daggers]

 

[Torquay Gunner]

8 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Go ahead and disagree with facts all you want, it doesn’t change them. 

Brown backed the Legg report did he not? 

[Daggers]

 

[FoxesDeb]

My vote will be cast in Harborough, Oadby and Wigston, and for me it's between the Lib Dems and Greens.

 

Does that constitute a wasted vote, given that the seat has been blue since forever, and Labour are always 2nd?

[Daggers]

 

 

I mean, not only does Sunak come across as a bit rapey - but he's doing it with a racist who believes Italy is currently undergoing "ethnic replacement". It's all manner of odd.

[Daggers]

 

[The Doctor]

19 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

My vote will be cast in Harborough, Oadby and Wigston, and for me it's between the Lib Dems and Greens.

 

Does that constitute a wasted vote, given that the seat has been blue since forever, and Labour are always 2nd?

no, the notion that voting third party is a wasted vote is one pushed by the big two to try and preserve a two party system. is it going to result in your preferred choice getting in, no, but it gives the third party a base to work from to target down more seats where they are not that far off/gets the big two to lean more towards your positions to try and woo you back. like ****, UKIP I don't think ever actually won a seat in an election (rather than through defectors) but they were basically the most successful party of the 2010s, with their policies becoming pretty much the entirety of the Tory party platform because of the way key chunks kept splitting from the Tories to UKIP 

[Parafox]

35 minutes ago, Daggers said:

 

 

I mean, not only does Sunak come across as a bit rapey - but he's doing it with a racist who believes Italy is currently undergoing "ethnic replacement". It's all manner of odd.

 

There's statesmen and then there's Sunak looking like he's found a MILF.

[Facecloth]

 

 

[Daggers]

59 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

My vote will be cast in Harborough, Oadby and Wigston, and for me it's between the Lib Dems and Greens.

 

Does that constitute a wasted vote, given that the seat has been blue since forever, and Labour are always 2nd?

https://stopthetories.vote/parl/harborough-oadby-and-wigston
 

[FoxesDeb]

1 minute ago, Daggers said:

https://stopthetories.vote/parl/harborough-oadby-and-wigston
 

Yeah I've seen that, that wasn't really my question though, I'm not going to vote Labour, so my choice is to either vote for who I want to, or not bother if it's going to be wasted.

[urban.spaceman]

12 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

Yeah I've seen that, that wasn't really my question though, I'm not going to vote Labour, so my choice is to either vote for who I want to, or not bother if it's going to be wasted.

Electoral Calculus:

 

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Harborough, Oadby and Wigston

 

Gives Labour a 68% chance of winning and the Tories 32%; the others 0% each.

 

Your vote is yours to make for your own reasons - judging by these projections you should be absolutely safe to vote for whoever you want in the safe knowledge it won't risk the Tories winning in this seat and nationally. At the end of the day it's between you and the ballot box who you vote for, don't let anyone shame you or prevent you from voting how with your own conscience.

[FoxesDeb]

2 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Electoral Calculus:

 

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Harborough, Oadby and Wigston

 

Gives Labour a 68% chance of winning and the Tories 32%; the others 0% each.

 

Your vote is yours to make for your own reasons - judging by these projections you should be absolutely safe to vote for whoever you want in the safe knowledge it won't risk the Tories winning in this seat and nationally. At the end of the day it's between you and the ballot box who you vote for, don't let anyone shame you or prevent you from voting how with your own conscience.

How much of a swing from Tory to Labour does this imply? I really can't see all that many historical Tory voters switching to Labour in this seat

[BenTheFox]

Reform: can you stop calling us far right please?

 

Reform: *releases nazi-style propaganda showing a massive queue of people trying to get a GP appointmemt, all of whom are. non-white*