Election prediction time

[bovril]

4 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

Reform: can you stop calling us far right please?

 

Reform: *releases nazi-style propaganda showing a massive queue of people trying to get a GP appointmemt, all of whom are. non-white*

Farage has moved on from Eastern Europeans I see. 

[Robo61]

45 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

Yeah I've seen that, that wasn't really my question though, I'm not going to vote Labour, so my choice is to either vote for who I want to, or not bother if it's going to be wasted.

Well it does unless you are thinking of voting Tory😉

[HighPeakFox]

22 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

How much of a swing from Tory to Labour does this imply? I really can't see all that many historical Tory voters switching to Labour in this seat

The boundaries have changed. 

 

To answer your earlier question, if you want your vote to have an effect, it's wasted. If you want to vote totally honestly, then it's not.

Edited 13 June by HighPeakFox

[FoxesDeb]

5 minutes ago, Robo61 said:

Well it does unless you are thinking of voting Tory😉

Given that I said my choice was between Lib Dem and Green, I think you can assume I'm not 

[StanSP]

 

 

[Legend_in_blue]

41 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Electoral Calculus:

 

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Harborough, Oadby and Wigston

 

Gives Labour a 68% chance of winning and the Tories 32%; the others 0% each.

 

Your vote is yours to make for your own reasons - judging by these projections you should be absolutely safe to vote for whoever you want in the safe knowledge it won't risk the Tories winning in this seat and nationally. At the end of the day it's between you and the ballot box who you vote for, don't let anyone shame you or prevent you from voting how with your own conscience.

Meanwhile in Leicestershire South it absolutely matters.  I can see it being a close run affair.  No chance Costa has a 25000 majority this time round.

[FoxesDeb]

11 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

The boundaries have changed. 

 

To answer your earlier question, if you want your vote to have an effect, it's wasted. If you want to vote totally honestly, then it's not.

They have, but doesn't the boundary change mean we've just encompassed more of an area that one would assume would be typically Tory? I've only ever voted from Wigston in the Harborough constituency, and it's always been a safe Tory seat

 

I'm still not convinced that all these historically Conservative voters are suddenly going to go red...

[Legend_in_blue]

1 minute ago, FoxesDeb said:

They have, but doesn't the boundary change mean we've just encompassed more of an area that one would assume would be typically Tory? I've only ever voted from Wigston in the Harborough constituency, and it's always been a safe Tory seat

 

I'm still not convinced that all these historically Conservative voters are suddenly going to go red...

 

If the younger generations get out and vote it might help switch.  

[Legend_in_blue]

Rayner vs Mordaunt II

 

Can't wait

 

[BenTheFox]

Might need to factcheck this but it basically sums up the fundamental issue with right wing populism. They claim to be revolting against the elite but really they are part of the elite and are there to protect the interests of the elite, therefore they create a false elite. 

 

 

[bovril]

23 minutes ago, StanSP said:

 

 

Please let him in the party after the election. Make him leader. I want to see their popularity plummet even further as the Nigel Farage Hot Pics fanclub continue to literally die off. 

[Raj]

The Welsh guy is Lee Evan's in disguise.

[HighPeakFox]

26 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

They have, but doesn't the boundary change mean we've just encompassed more of an area that one would assume would be typically Tory? I've only ever voted from Wigston in the Harborough constituency, and it's always been a safe Tory seat

 

I'm still not convinced that all these historically Conservative voters are suddenly going to go red...

I think a lot just won't vote at all. You might end up being right, of course, but all the polling is showing this sort of possible outcome across the board.

[Voll Blau]

6 hours ago, The Fox Covert said:

Winston Churchill once described his deputy prime minister Clement Attlee during the coalition National Government wartime years as 'a modest man with a lot to be modest about'. That modest man lead Labour to a landslide victory in 1945 and the most successful Labour government in history.

Would thoroughly recommend John Bew's biography of Attlee. Being a good PM is about being a good manager, you don't have to be flash as long as you have the temperament to manage the talent at your disposal well.

 

I despair that people still want an entertainer, despite that floppy-haired nonce taking the piss out of literally the whole country. If that didn't make you realise the whole "I'd love to have a beer with him!" attitude produces shite leaders (who'd never have a beer with you in a billion years, by the way) then nothing will.

Edited 13 June by Voll Blau

[RoboFox]

Mordaunt is dying on her arse here.

[StanSP]

SNP hate Labour don't they? He's constantly digging at them. 

 

Feel sorry for Lib Dem being stuck in between Rayner and Mordaunt. 

[Raj]

Feel sorry for the lib dem lass being inbetweener Penny n Angela 🤣🤣

 

Penny blaming labour for the last 14 years!!!🤣

[StanSP]

Once again Farage has no policy chat but just points the finger at Tories and Labour 

[EnderbyFox]

Is Penny Mordaunt really the best the Tories can offer for these debates? She’s horrendous 

[StanSP]

Just now, Raj said:

Penny blaming labour for the last 14 years!!!🤣

Yeah did she actually say Labour haven't had any ideas as if they haven't had 14 years to sort it out themselves... 

[RoboFox]

2 minutes ago, StanSP said:

SNP hate Labour don't they? He's constantly digging at them. 

It’s just tactics. SNP trying to win back marginal gains from Labour north of the border amongst floating voters - they’re pretty much neck and neck in the polls in Scotland

[EnderbyFox]

5 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Once again Farage has no policy chat but just points the finger at Tories and Labour 

I actually laughed out loud when he exclaimed “I always tell the truth”  

 

Mind boggling how so many fall for the grift 

[Spiritwalker]

Rayners categorically states Labour will not take us back into the Single Market or Customs Union.

Lib Dems it is then.

[StanSP]

Just now, Spiritwalker said:

Rayners categorically states Labour will not take us back into the Single Market or Customs Union.

Lib Dems it is then.

Shame she answered so adamantly. 

[Bellend Sebastian]

27 minutes ago, Spiritwalker said:

Rayners categorically states Labour will not take us back into the Single Market or Customs Union.

Lib Dems it is then.

Is that what she said? Oh FFS