Election prediction time

[Raj]

Julie the ref is awful.

She doesn't even let the people  respond after getting a sh1t answer to their questions.

Penny M really is an annoying feck.

 

[kenny]

31 minutes ago, Spiritwalker said:

Rayners categorically states Labour will not take us back into the Single Market or Customs Union.

Lib Dems it is then.

They have said today they are buying 400 MRI and CT scanners for £250m.

 

I wouldn't worry if something is said you don't like, it will change soon.

[BenTheFox]

 

 

47 minutes ago, StanSP said:

SNP hate Labour don't they? He's constantly digging at them. 

 

Feel sorry for Lib Dem being stuck in between Rayner and Mordaunt. 

Labour are the main opposition to the SNP in Scotland. 

 

I particularly like listening to Stephen Flynn because he's not trying to pander to voters in England. As a result we hear a completely different line on Brexit and immigration. 

[LVFox]

Always felt the tories would recover to some level of respectability (seat wise), but I'm convinced they are getting a Canada style wipeout now.

[Parafox]

1 hour ago, Raj said:

Julie the ref is awful.

She doesn't even let the people  respond after getting a sh1t answer to their questions.

Penny M really is an annoying feck.

 

 

Prospective next Tory leader?

 

The Tories really are ****ed if the front runners for the leadership are anything to go by, Badenoch, (even her name is completely open to ridicule if she ever makes a faux pas), Cleverley, (same). Mordaunt, just dressed up as some chess piece for the funeral of the late Queen. Comes across as even more dim and out of touch as Truss and Sunak. As do the others.

 

Then you look across the pond and at the major European countries and one wonders where have the real statesmen gone?

 

It seems to me that prospective or incumbent leaders of the "free world" aren't invested in the interests of their country, but only in themselves and the prospect of power at all costs.

 

 

 

 

Edited 13 June by Parafox

[Jon the Hat]

3 hours ago, BenTheFox said:

Might need to factcheck this but it basically sums up the fundamental issue with right wing populism. They claim to be revolting against the elite but really they are part of the elite and are there to protect the interests of the elite, therefore they create a false elite. 

 

 

They don't mean the wealthy though do they?  They mean the liberal intelligentsia (Jews?) who ignore the reality on the ground in the quest for moral superiority.  So if you are a bloke who doesn't like brown people moving in and takin all the jobs (which you didn't want anyway) cos they are simultaneously going to rape our women and blow us up then the elite is not rich white people, it is those people on the TV / Podcast / Radio who interview and mock people like you.  Easy win. 

 

I would say there is something a little media "I am clever and know the world" about the three of them when they get going, although I listen regularly and am a big fan and indeed consider myself fairly clever and know a bit about the world.  Easy target for the Reform types I think.

[Daggers]

Any TV company carrying voxpop comments from people barely able to conjugate a sentence in English would be shut down when I become UK's supreme ruler.

 

Vote for me.

 

But don't, because I'm not counting your vote - I'm just assuming power.

[Jon the Hat]

39 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Any TV company carrying voxpop comments from people barely able to conjugate a sentence in English would be shut down when I become UK's supreme ruler.

 

Vote for me.

 

But don't, because I'm not counting your vote - I'm just assuming power.

I hate them with a fiery passion.  

[Daggers]

18 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

I hate them with a fiery passion.  

So vote for me.

 

And don't bother voting for me. I'm going to rule your life regardless. I will be merciless.

 

But most of all - never watch an ITV debate. What the fvck am I currently watching?

[Jon the Hat]

Just now, Daggers said:

So vote for me.

 

And don't bother voting for me. I'm going to rule your life regardless. I will be merciless.

 

But most of all - never watch an ITV debate. What the fvck am I currently watching?

Never watch ITV in general.  

[peach0000]

6 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

They have, but doesn't the boundary change mean we've just encompassed more of an area that one would assume would be typically Tory? I've only ever voted from Wigston in the Harborough constituency, and it's always been a safe Tory seat

 

I'm still not convinced that all these historically Conservative voters are suddenly going to go red...

To add to what others have said this constituency is a bit of an unknown entity for this election. The website the other poster shared suggested that it's very likely that it would be a labour victory while it has traditionally been one of the safest tory seats you can find (the old constituency not the new one). However, I will point you to the YouGov poll as a third source of information. They too are predicting a Labour victory in this seat but a very narrow one 38 - 34 which they say is comfortably in the margin of error. So this seat looks like it could potentially be very close so every vote could matter.

 

Tactical voting is possibly helpful ie a vote for labour or conservative is in theory more worthwhile but a vote for a third party also can show support for what you believe in. I would always suggest voting tactically only if you are really opposed to one of the parties fighting for the seat. 

 

Another interesting thing about this seat is the Lib Dem vote. Until very recently (last two elections) the Lib Dems were always the closest challengers to the tories, labour were always no where to be seen (often single figures I believe) while the Lib Dems were in the 30s. As someone who has moved away from the area in the period that the change has happened I have wondered why the Lib Dem vote has completely collapsed and Labour have made gains that have before seemed impossible in the area. Maybe someone can enlighten me to what has gone on. 

[Raj]

6 hours ago, Parafox said:

 

Prospective next Tory leader?

 

The Tories really are ****ed if the front runners for the leadership are anything to go by, Badenoch, (even her name is completely open to ridicule if she ever makes a faux pas), Cleverley, (same). Mordaunt, just dressed up as some chess piece for the funeral of the late Queen. Comes across as even more dim and out of touch as Truss and Sunak. As do the others.

 

Then you look across the pond and at the major European countries and one wonders where have the real statesmen gone?

 

It seems to me that prospective or incumbent leaders of the "free world" aren't invested in the interests of their country, but only in themselves and the prospect of power at all costs.

 

 

 

 

Next leader will be Farage👍🏾

[RobHawk]

Thought last night was completely ruined by Penny, not only annoying but constantly speaking over everyone, not letting people answer. 

 

I guess it's a sign of the times for the Torys, just flinging mud at labour with pure desperation. Even the labour enabler jibe at farage was more aimed at labour. 

 

Again I felt the other parties did well, even farage was better, even if still doesn't have any policies. Much better night from the greens in my eyes too. 

 

I do hope that the lib dems and other smaller parties do well and are able to form an almost rainbow opposition to labour, and that Labour seek to listen and work with those parties over time to fix the country for the better as I think there's a huge opportunity for a bit more joined up thinking and alot less arguing if the Tories are wiped out and reform struggle to turn their voteshare into MPs

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1335nj316lo

 

Really don't think that tech related manipulation is taken seriously enough, given the level of sophistication it is rising to take.

[The Doctor]

9 hours ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

Is that what she said? Oh FFS

it'll change in two days, they're a party with zero principles under the spineless ham man, hence why they had to turn the manifesto into his photo album to cover up a complete lack of policies beyond "I'm not Rishi Sunak".

[Voll Blau]

Just now, The Doctor said:

it'll change in two days, they're a party with zero principles under the spineless ham man, hence why they had to turn the manifesto into his photo album to cover up a complete lack of policies beyond "I'm not Rishi Sunak".

Honestly, if people have actually read the thing and still think this then they're being wilfully ignorant at this stage.

[LanguedocFox]

5 hours ago, Daggers said:

Any TV company carrying voxpop comments from people barely able to conjugate a sentence in English would be shut down when I become UK's supreme ruler.

 

Vote for me.

 

But don't, because I'm not counting your vote - I'm just assuming power.

A pedant writes: you conjugate a verb, not a sentence. Although I agree entirely with your sentiments.

 

When I become supreme leader, I shall insist on all supermarkets having products arranged in exactly the same way. And anyone who seeks to change that will be publicly flogged.

[HighPeakFox]

12 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

Honestly, if people have actually read the thing and still think this then they're being wilfully ignorant at this stage.

People who consider themselves principled or to have better ideals are just as capable of having as closed a mind as the next man.

[Voll Blau]

12 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

People who consider themselves principled or to have better ideals are just as capable of having as closed a mind as the next man.

It's beyond me. Sure, most people enter elections with their own prejudices but we'd be miles better off as a nation if people actually read the detail of what each party is proposing.

[leicsmac]

14 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

People who consider themselves principled or to have better ideals are just as capable of having as closed a mind as the next man.

 

1 minute ago, Voll Blau said:

It's beyond me. Sure, most people enter elections with their own prejudices but we'd be miles better off as a nation if people actually read the detail of what each party is proposing.

And to add to this, principles without the power to actually apply them to make the world a better place are as much use as a fart in a hurricane anyway. "Thoughts and prayers" all over again.

[The Doctor]

38 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

Honestly, if people have actually read the thing and still think this then they're being wilfully ignorant at this stage.

I'll rephrase: a lack of any good policies beyond not being Sunak. like, focusing down on the two areas which are critical to me:

 

- a liveable planet for future generations; labour have drastically watered down compared to how they were talking in January and offer a pittance compared to the lib dems on climate, and at this point we cannot afford to half arse the response. 

 

- LGBT rights; labours manifesto sets out an aim to be worse than Florida on some aspects of this (enacting the Cass review, the basis of which has just been slapped down in the us federal courts - Doe v Lapado) and is incredibly contradictory (promising a conversion therapy ban but also enacting "exploratory therapy", which is just conversion therapy with a new badge slapped on it).

 

beyond that it's a lot of austerity rebranded and utter contempt for disabled people. it's lukewarm slop from a party offering nothing good.

[Lionator]

It’s not as simple as this but the argument I always have for Reform types is this.

 

1. Do you pay British workers a better wage so that they will do the dull, depressing manual/social care jobs? 
 

If yes, great immigration can come down.

If no, then who is filling the gaps?

 

2. We got rid of the Eastern European immigrants after 2016 to do those jobs and have replaced them with Zimbabweans, Indians, Ghanaians etc (ironically non white which will rile up reform types more).
 

A modern economy simply cannot run with no immigration or poor wages. You have to choose one or the other. You pay poor wages, you need high immigration. Reform and other parties will not commit to improving worker rights and pay because they’re horrible ultra capitalist vultures. Therefore without immigrants our society would collapse. Reform know it but still lie to their electorate because ultimately hating Jonny foreigner is a winner. 

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, The Doctor said:

I'll rephrase: a lack of any good policies beyond not being Sunak. like, focusing down on the two areas which are critical to me:

 

- a liveable planet for future generations; labour have drastically watered down compared to how they were talking in January and offer a pittance compared to the lib dems on climate, and at this point we cannot afford to half arse the response. 

 

- LGBT rights; labours manifesto sets out an aim to be worse than Florida on some aspects of this (enacting the Cass review, the basis of which has just been slapped down in the us federal courts - Doe v Lapado) and is incredibly contradictory (promising a conversion therapy ban but also enacting "exploratory therapy", which is just conversion therapy with a new badge slapped on it).

 

beyond that it's a lot of austerity rebranded and utter contempt for disabled people. it's lukewarm slop from a party offering nothing good.

As much as I agree with not half arsing this most important issue (indeed, the most important of the lot), from what I can tell it still gets the UK to net zero emissions by 2050 which was the agreed target to stop the nastiest of the consequences anyway.

 

Of course, sooner is better though and I hope the Lib Dems and Greens can hold their feet to the fire further on this. Foreign policy whereby the UK assists everywhere else to ensure everyone is playing ball is going to be critical too.

[The Doctor]

28 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

 

And to add to this, principles without the power to actually apply them to make the world a better place are as much use as a fart in a hurricane anyway. "Thoughts and prayers" all over again.

while this may be true, power without principles is even worse. I also think there's not enough understanding that this election is not just about the next 5 years but the next 20. Labour are offering nothing but managed decline compared to the Tories crashing elevator approach. when things don't improve under labour, we know enough history and see enough contemporary politics in the us and mainland Europe to know what happens - reform and Farage end up in power. the technocratic centre not only won't stop fascism, they make it inevitable.

[Jon the Hat]

6 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

while this may be true, power without principles is even worse. I also think there's not enough understanding that this election is not just about the next 5 years but the next 20. Labour are offering nothing but managed decline compared to the Tories crashing elevator approach. when things don't improve under labour, we know enough history and see enough contemporary politics in the us and mainland Europe to know what happens - reform and Farage end up in power. the technocratic centre not only won't stop fascism, they make it inevitable.

Power with Principles can be worst of all if those principles are not the right ones.