Election prediction time

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, The Doctor said:

while this may be true, power without principles is even worse. I also think there's not enough understanding that this election is not just about the next 5 years but the next 20. Labour are offering nothing but managed decline compared to the Tories crashing elevator approach. when things don't improve under labour, we know enough history and see enough contemporary politics in the us and mainland Europe to know what happens - reform and Farage end up in power. the technocratic centre not only won't stop fascism, they make it inevitable.

... and we had the choice of a bigger swing to the left in the UK in both 2017 and 2019. It didn't happen. The reasons for that are extensive, but also irrelevant - the only thing that matters is that it was rejected.

 

Don't get me wrong, there are a few issues where harm reduction is massively on the clock and so change needs to be fast and therefore often radical. It's just that such attempts fail in application far more often than they succeed and we end up back at square one anyway. Incremental works much more often, but then as you say there's issues with that too. If what you say about the "technocratic centre" is true, then it may be that we're all fvcked no matter what.

 

Believe me, I share your stance, particularly on the two issues you've highlighted above. I just don't see a legit way to hurry things along that offers any guarantee of working in terms of gaining the power to apply it.

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Power with Principles can be worst of all if those principles are not the right ones.  

 

It's a double edged sword, yes. But that doesn't mean that strong principles aren't sometimes necessary to stop a great deal of harm.

[BenTheFox]

 

We often conflate Conservatism with Thatcherite economics. The funny thing is, Harold Macmillan would be considered left wing now. 

[Daggers]

2 hours ago, LanguedocFox said:

A pedant writes: you conjugate a verb, not a sentence. Although I agree entirely with your sentiments.

 

When I become supreme leader, I shall insist on all supermarkets having products arranged in exactly the same way. And anyone who seeks to change that will be publicly flogged.

Such things happen, I was outstandingly drunk last night. I may actually be dead now.

[RoboFox]

Wes Streeting is an excellent media performer. He's become Labour's go-to guy this campaign. 

[Voll Blau]

4 hours ago, The Doctor said:

I'll rephrase: a lack of any good policies beyond not being Sunak. like, focusing down on the two areas which are critical to me:

 

- a liveable planet for future generations; labour have drastically watered down compared to how they were talking in January and offer a pittance compared to the lib dems on climate, and at this point we cannot afford to half arse the response. 

 

- LGBT rights; labours manifesto sets out an aim to be worse than Florida on some aspects of this (enacting the Cass review, the basis of which has just been slapped down in the us federal courts - Doe v Lapado) and is incredibly contradictory (promising a conversion therapy ban but also enacting "exploratory therapy", which is just conversion therapy with a new badge slapped on it).

 

beyond that it's a lot of austerity rebranded and utter contempt for disabled people. it's lukewarm slop from a party offering nothing good.

Fair enough on climate policy, but I'm struggling to find the claims you make about LGBT Rights anywhere in the section on that issue? Apologies if I'm being thick.

 

There are plenty of policies in there that would do loads of good for millions and millions of people. Just because it's not what was pitched in 2017 and 2019 doesn't mean it offers "nothing good". Literally everyone reading this thread would benefit from the policies outlined in it to some degree.

Edited 14 June by Voll Blau

[HighPeakFox]

2 hours ago, The Doctor said:

while this may be true, power without principles is even worse. I also think there's not enough understanding that this election is not just about the next 5 years but the next 20. Labour are offering nothing but managed decline compared to the Tories crashing elevator approach. when things don't improve under labour, we know enough history and see enough contemporary politics in the us and mainland Europe to know what happens - reform and Farage end up in power. the technocratic centre not only won't stop fascism, they make it inevitable.

I'm with you about Fascism, and I share this fear. However, I do not believe that the current iteration of the Labour Party is without principles - we'll just have to disagree on that. 

[bovril]

I think people overestimate Farage and Reform. He's a not too bright, America-brained saloon bar bore who is popular amongst people who see themselves in him. Even if he got in, which he won't, it would be like Brexit - not fascism but more economic decline that quickly becomes unpopular. 

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, bovril said:

I think people overestimate Farage and Reform. He's a not too bright, America-brained saloon bar bore who is popular amongst people who see themselves in him. Even if he got in, which he won't, it would be like Brexit - not fascism but more economic decline that quickly becomes unpopular. 

Possibly so, but given their rather large social media reach and the influence those who think like him have had on policymaking in both the US and parts of Europe, it's worth at least taking the ideology seriously, I reckon.

[Daggers]

 

[Daggers]

[Foxdiamond]

3 hours ago, BenTheFox said:

 

We often conflate Conservatism with Thatcherite economics. The funny thing is, Harold Macmillan would be considered left wing now. 

Macmillan was another chap from a privileged background that cared about the less fortunate. He served along side lots of working class men as a Guards officer and shared the dangers

[harpendenfox]

55 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Craig could not be more Tory boy if he tried. It's the red trousers. The gilet. The plumpness. The voice that sounds as if he's in the throes of puberty. The total lack of morality and ability to understand the difference between right and wrong. 

[The Doctor]

2 hours ago, Voll Blau said:

Fair enough on climate policy, but I'm struggling to find the claims you make about LGBT Rights anywhere in the section on that issue? Apologies if I'm being thick.

 

There are plenty of policies in there that would do loads of good for millions and millions of people. Just because it's not what was pitched in 2017 and 2019 doesn't mean it offers "nothing good". Literally everyone reading this thread would benefit from the policies outlined in it to some degree.

page 91 of the pdf version:

 

"So-called conversion therapy is abuse – there is no other word for it – so Labour will finally deliver a full trans-inclusive ban on conversion practices, while protecting the freedom for people to explore their sexual orientation and gender identity."

 

conversion therapy is abuse, that much is correct, it's generally recognised as torture for a reason, but that last line is important because basically no conversion therapist will say that's what they practice, they'll state that they offer "exploratory therapy", allowing their 'patient' to "explore their sexual orientation and gender identity rather than being told what it is in an affirmative model". So, a ban on conversion therapy that allows so called exploratory therapy is a paper ban only that still allows the actual practice to occur. 

 

page 99

 

"We will work to implement the expert recommendations of the Cass Review to ensure that young people presenting to the NHS with gender dysphoria are receiving appropriate and high-quality care."

 

the Cass review was a stitch up, torn to shreds by every international body who work in this area, and was commissioned by the Tories to enable an attack on trans healthcare (don't take my word for it, take Bad Enochs: https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1799509912143151611), and the recommendations it makes are the basis of the Florida laws that were just struck down as being obviously discriminatory and in violation of equal protection rights in Doe v. Ladapo.

[leicsmac]

.... Farage and those like him simply cannot comprehend the idea of a global problem with global consequences that needs a global solution, can they?

 

How can someone think that such problems will stop at borders just because we've put them on paper?

[BenTheFox]

I've made it clear that I will not be voting for Labour at this election. However, if there is any chance whatsoever of Reform winning the election, I'll have to go back on that. At that point it fully becomes the lesser of two evils for me. 

[HighPeakFox]

43 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

I've made it clear that I will not be voting for Labour at this election. However, if there is any chance whatsoever of Reform winning the election, I'll have to go back on that. At that point it fully becomes the lesser of two evils for me. 

Which is your constituency? 

[urban.spaceman]

3 hours ago, Daggers said:

Has someone given him a Hitler moustache or do I need to clean my laptop screen?  

[BenTheFox]

17 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

Which is your constituency? 

Gedling

[HighPeakFox]

12 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

Gedling

Looking like a Labour shoo-in at this stage anyway.

[The Fox Covert]

23 hours ago, Foxdiamond said:

I think even Churchill knew Attlee was a capable deputy during WW2 and as you say turned out to be a successful premier. Probably the opposite of Sunak that he was middle class but cared deeply about the poor. Also did his bit in the army in WW1. Insisted on attending Churchill's funeral despite his own frail health. No going home early for him.

Yes, it is politics. Churchill knew how to turn a phrase. It is not clear whose idea it was to invite Labour to join the wartime government after Churchill replaced Neville Chamberlain in 1940, but Churchill certainly wanted Labour to buy into the 'all in the same boat' mentality after the fall of France and the evacuation of the Allied forces at Dunkirk. Attlee and other front-rank Labour politicians like Ernest Bevin, Herbert Morrison, Arthur Greenwood and Hugh Dalton all played a prominent part in the wartime administration.

[Legend_in_blue]

Costa appears to be canvassing in the very south of South Leicestershire at the moment.  So much so that I'd go as far as to say he's canvassing for MP in Lutterworth and surrounding villages.

[The Fox Covert]

18 hours ago, Voll Blau said:

Would thoroughly recommend John Bew's biography of Attlee. Being a good PM is about being a good manager, you don't have to be flash as long as you have the temperament to manage the talent at your disposal well.

 

I despair that people still want an entertainer, despite that floppy-haired nonce taking the piss out of literally the whole country. If that didn't make you realise the whole "I'd love to have a beer with him!" attitude produces shite leaders (who'd never have a beer with you in a billion years, by the way) then nothing will.

I haven't seen that but I will definitely look out for it. I expect if Bodgejob Johnson had been around in the wartime and immediately following years I don't think he would have reached the Cabinet. Maybe Churchill would have despatched him to an insignificant junior position in the colonies where he would not have had to take very much responsbility for anything.

[bovril]

18 hours ago, BenTheFox said:

 

 

Labour are the main opposition to the SNP in Scotland. 

 

I particularly like listening to Stephen Flynn because he's not trying to pander to voters in England. As a result we hear a completely different line on Brexit and immigration. 

Interesting how little Brexit is spoken about. Even to Farage, even in the context of the increase in immigration. 

[The Fox Covert]

6 hours ago, BenTheFox said:

 

We often conflate Conservatism with Thatcherite economics. The funny thing is, Harold Macmillan would be considered left wing now. 

I often think of Starmer as a Macmillan type 'One Nation' Tory. I was never centre right but in the current heavily skewed political scene I expect I would also be labelled as hard left.