Election prediction time

[The Fox Covert]

9 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Costa appears to be canvassing in the very south of South Leicestershire at the moment.  So much so that I'd go as far as to say he's canvassing for MP in Lutterworth and surrounding villages.

What? A Tory who can walk and talk and knock on the doors of ordinary people??? Several weeks into the campaign I haven't yet seen a single Tory leaflet or poster, in my constituency in the West Country, which the Tories would normally expect to win at a canter.

[Torquay Gunner]

41 minutes ago, The Fox Covert said:

What? A Tory who can walk and talk and knock on the doors of ordinary people??? Several weeks into the campaign I haven't yet seen a single Tory leaflet or poster, in my constituency in the West Country, which the Tories would normally expect to win at a canter.

Same here in East Yorkshire, where my constituency is in a Tory stronghold. 

[Rain King]

57 minutes ago, The Fox Covert said:

What? A Tory who can walk and talk and knock on the doors of ordinary people??? Several weeks into the campaign I haven't yet seen a single Tory leaflet or poster, in my constituency in the West Country, which the Tories would normally expect to win at a canter.

Don't give him any credit, the bloke is a scum bag.

[David Hankey]

Just listening to a deranged Farage who reckons he will be standing at the despatch box in Parliament after 4th July.

[BenTheFox]

If Reform win a number of seats at this election, what does the future of the Conservative Party look like?  Do they go down that rabbit hole trying to chase right wing votes in an attempt to basically eliminate reform as a political force or do they move to a more centrist and generally more pro-europeon position (someone of Rory Stewart's ilk)? 

 

I wonder if reform are that much of a force now that the tories may as well accept them and change course. Try and win voters back that they would have lost to Labour and the Lib Dems. 

[Bordersfox]

I've become increasingly disengaged with politics, sure I'll go and vote and seeing the back of these heinous fvckers will be celebrated. But I don't feel Labour are currently near progressive enough to really spark my enthusiasm.  

 

As a result I don't follow much of the news coverage.  

 

As a result of all that I realised something today that truly sent a shiver down my spine.  The vast majority, virtually all in fact, of my election coverage is being provided by @Daggers

 

 

[ajthefox]

Are people really worried about reform taking seats?

 

IIRC UKIP got 4 million votes and only managed 1 seat. I know the tories are crashing and burning but I'd be surprised to see Reform getting any genuine traction.

[Mark_w]

22 minutes ago, ajthefox said:

Are people really worried about reform taking seats?

 

IIRC UKIP got 4 million votes and only managed 1 seat. I know the tories are crashing and burning but I'd be surprised to see Reform getting any genuine traction.

They will absolutely get seats, now Reform are polling above them the Tories are going to hemorrhage voters to them

[Parafox]

2 hours ago, The Fox Covert said:

What? A Tory who can walk and talk and knock on the doors of ordinary people??? Several weeks into the campaign I haven't yet seen a single Tory leaflet or poster, in my constituency in the West Country, which the Tories would normally expect to win at a canter.

 

2 hours ago, Torquay Gunner said:

Same here in East Yorkshire, where my constituency is in a Tory stronghold. 

 

Complacency and arrogance.

Edited 14 June by Parafox

[Daggers]

33 minutes ago, ajthefox said:

Are people really worried about reform taking seats?

 

IIRC UKIP got 4 million votes and only managed 1 seat. I know the tories are crashing and burning but I'd be surprised to see Reform getting any genuine traction.

Up to eleven as of today. 

[kingkisnorbo]

6 minutes ago, Mark_w said:

They will absolutely get seats, now Reform are polling above them the Tories are going to hemorrhage voters to them

They also have the benefit of having a somewhat charismatic, cartoonish premier who is a pretty decent orator. That is worth its weight in gold since the Trump's and Johnson's of this world have convinced the mainstream that politicians aren't supposed to be "boring."

[Mark_w]

7 minutes ago, Parafox said:

 

 

Complacency and arrogance.

Probably quite hard to convince even the dumbest of Tories to go out and put leaflets through letterboxes right now.

[Parafox]

Just now, Mark_w said:

Probably quite hard to convince even the dumbest of Tories to go out and put leaflets through letterboxes right now.

 

Yeah, have a night in front of the telly and watch the Euros for the next 3 weeks. Why bother doing any canvassing when you know it's over?

[leicsmac]

14 minutes ago, kingkisnorbo said:

They also have the benefit of having a somewhat charismatic, cartoonish premier who is a pretty decent orator. That is worth its weight in gold since the Trump's and Johnson's of this world have convinced the mainstream that politicians aren't supposed to be "boring."

And savvy use of social media manipulation and bots from around the world, to boot.

[Sampson]

The one thing about Farage which gives me some crumb for comfort is he only seems to make headway amongst a certain generation of over 65s, all the polls show he never makes any in roads in people younger than that and well, without being morbid, he’ll have lost a lot of his voters by 2029 through natural causes. The guy’s popularity has a natural clock on it imo. 
 

The vote in the UK has become so extreme in its generational split that it’s hard to see the right not just being phased out of power for a long time as it’s hard to see the younger generation of current 13-17 year olds who’ll be 18+ come 2029 voting Tories or Reform and replacing the older voters who die and those in their late 40s where the median voting age lies don’t seem to switching from Labour to the Tories either and have spent most of their working life under 14 years of Tory government that’s only burnt the economy to the ground which will be hard to forget.

[Daggers]

I see the forum’s cult member has received his weak briefing

 

 

[Zear0]

27 minutes ago, Daggers said:

I see the forum’s cult member has received his weak briefing

 

 

I'm still baffled posters bother to waste energy debating with these extremists. 

[Raj]

4 hours ago, The Fox Covert said:

What? A Tory who can walk and talk and knock on the doors of ordinary people??? Several weeks into the campaign I haven't yet seen a single Tory leaflet or poster, in my constituency in the West Country, which the Tories would normally expect to win at a canter.

Had a leaflet through the door ( posted not in person) by pur tory mp Alicia Kearns

Straight in the bin.

[Bilo]

16 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

I'm still baffled posters bother to waste energy debating with these extremists. 

They're very vocal on social media and organise accordingly.

 

They actually refer to themselves as a 'Shitposting Army' and organise themselves via Discord.

 

Too much money in the trust fund and not enough friends or hobbies in my view.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg33x9jm02ko.amp

[Zear0]

Just now, Bilo said:

They're very vocal on social media and organise accordingly.

 

They actually refer to themselves as a 'Shitposting Army' and organise themselves via Discord.

 

Too much money in the trust fund and not enough friends or hobbies in my view.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg33x9jm02ko.amp

To be honest it's a nice reminder how the far left is equally as deranged and dangerous as the far right. 

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

To be honest it's a nice reminder how the far left is equally as deranged and dangerous as the far right. 

And funnily enough I share social media space with folks who think that Putin was entirely justified in his current actions in Ukraine and won't hear a word against China, because "stick it to the USA/West" or somesuch.

 

Guys, when there's a bully in the playground, following another bully isn't the flex you think it is.

[urban.spaceman]

From the author of “Whipser it quietly… Rishi Sunak is staging a stunning comeback” comes a new classic:

 

 

[Bilo]

21 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

To be honest it's a nice reminder how the far left is equally as deranged and dangerous as the far right. 

They're not dangerous, they're just socially inadequate and spouting from a place of privilege.

 

They're largely bored middle-class outcasts who have jumped on politics as a bit of a game because they'll be largely unaffected by the outcome of elections. It's one of the very few ways they can get attention and flex anything resembling power, and mask the fact that they're largely boring and irrelevant offline.

[Bilo]

18 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

And funnily enough I share social media space with folks who think that Putin was entirely justified in his current actions in Ukraine and won't hear a word against China, because "stick it to the USA/West" or somesuch.

 

Guys, when there's a bully in the playground, following another bully isn't the flex you think it is.

It's total political illiteracy and complete ignorance of geopolitics. Russia is far, far closer to a far-right fascist state than anything you will see in the West.

 

Militaristic, totalitarian, racist, expansionist and brutally intolerant towards any social minorities. Its death toll of Muslims makes Netanyahu look like Jeremy Corbyn. 

 

No genuine leftist would ever support such a state, but the Chronically Online tend to do so because 'aMeRiCa BaD.' 

 

Oh, and anyone who claims to be left-wing and supports George ****ing Galloway is thicker than a Boxing Day shite. 

[leicsmac]

7 minutes ago, Bilo said:

It's total political illiteracy and complete ignorance of geopolitics. Russia is far, far closer to a far-right fascist state than anything you will see in the West.

 

Militaristic, totalitarian, racist, expansionist and brutally intolerant towards any social minorities. Its death toll of Muslims makes Netanyahu look like Jeremy Corbyn. 

 

No genuine leftist would ever support such a state, but the Chronically Online tend to do so because 'aMeRiCa BaD.' 

 

Oh, and anyone who claims to be left-wing and supports George ****ing Galloway is thicker than a Boxing Day shite. 

And anyone heard from the Uyghurs recently?

 

But yup, exactly.