Election prediction time

[Bilo]

45 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

And anyone heard from the Uyghurs recently?

 

But yup, exactly.

The Uyghurs will be ignored by performative white, Western leftists until someone writes a sea shanty about them on TikTok. And their plight will never trend on there for what should be obvious reasons. 

 

The reality is that a lot of people are making a lot of money from, essentially, the suffering of Palestinian people and the mostly (but by no means all) well-meaning but ill-informed horror of people who get their partial news from social media. 

[Voll Blau]

2 hours ago, Zear0 said:

I'm still baffled posters bother to waste energy debating with these extremists. 

Dunno. Just fed up of people who are more arsed about wanting to appear the smartest person on social media than they are about the fact our country's gone to the fvcking dogs. Felt the same about the "oooo I'm soooooo #FBPE but could never vote for Corbyn!" mob too. They knew the alternative and yet they let it happen.

 

If any of them were that smart then they'd accept your choices right now are to back the fella who, despite not being absolutely perfect in every way, is actually offering a better deal for most folks - including those who desperately need it - or to back the mob offering you more of what we've had for the past 14 years.

 

That's what our electoral system offers. It's shite, but that's the game. So either keep on bitching for those sweet, sweet echo chamber likes and let poor folk keep suffering, or do the right thing. It's a no-brainer.

Edited 14 June by Voll Blau

[Bilo]

1 minute ago, Voll Blau said:

Dunno. Just fed up of people who are more arsed about about wanting to appear the smartest person on social media than they are about the fact our country's gone to the fvcking dogs. Felt the same about the "oooo I'm soooooo #FBPE but could never vote for Corbyn!" mob too. They knew the alternative and yet they let it happen.

 

If any of them were that smart then they'd accept your choices right now are to back the fella who, despite not being absolutely perfect in every way, is actually offering a better deal for most folks - including those who desperately need it - or to back the mob offering you more of what we've had for the past 14 years.

 

That's what our electoral system offers. It's shite, but that's the game. So either keep on bitching for those sweet, sweet echo chamber likes and let poor folk keep suffering, or do the right thing. It's a no-brainer.

I think, ultimately, you have to remember that these are largely pretty middle-class and privileged types for whom politics is a bit of a laugh and their expressed views are little more than a fashion label. Their actual politics are vague and nebulous, probably being best described as performative nihilism.

 

Will they be worrying about the cost of childcare or other working-class concerns? Most likely not. So they can bask in the luxury of perpetual protest and anti-politics rhetoric They'll be playing the part of the ideologically pure and virtuous echo chambers who can sneer behind their keyboards at the dunderheaded masses who voted for a party who may not be perfect, but represented a significant improvement over the other party that flushed living standards and public services down the toilet.

 

It's worth remembering as well that Labour are likely to get two terms at least. Begin to fix the car crash of the last 14 years, get public services and the economy back on their feet and the 2029 manifesto may well be ambitious and exciting. But right now, competence, stability, pragmatism and not being corrupt represent significant improvement over what we've had. That's how far standards have fallen.

 

Labour have a low bar to clear and they're the only party you could reasonably trust to do it because, even if Sunak pulls off the most unlikely comeback in political history, they'll have the knives out before the next World Cup at the latest and the circus continues.

[Zear0]

8 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

Dunno. Just fed up of people who are more arsed about about wanting to appear the smartest person on social media than they are about the fact our country's gone to the fvcking dogs. Felt the same about the "oooo I'm soooooo #FBPE but could never vote for Corbyn!" mob too. They knew the alternative and yet they let it happen.

 

If any of them were that smart then they'd accept your choices right now are to back the fella who, despite not being absolutely perfect in every way, is actually offering a better deal for most folks - including those who desperately need it - or to back the mob offering you more of what we've had for the past 14 years.

 

That's what our electoral system offers. It's shite, but that's the game. So either keep on bitching for those sweet, sweet echo chamber likes and let poor folk keep suffering, or do the right thing. It's a no-brainer.

Completely agree, they seem driven by intellectual dick swinging to get reddit upvotes. Fry said these loonies are more interested in being right than effective, with respect to politics, and it sums it up right. 

 

Just click "ignore" and oggle the pizza pictures. 

[Wymsey]

Good font size, Reform UK, but a little more context about your plans would've been helpful - no?..

 

 

[Bilo]

4 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

Completely agree, they seem driven by intellectual dick swinging to get reddit upvotes. Fry said these loonies are more interested in being right than effective, with respect to politics, and it sums it up right. 

 

Just click "ignore" and oggle the pizza pictures. 

In many cases it isn't even intellectual. It's bandwagon jumping and hawking 'virtuous' politics for social capital.

[Voll Blau]

7 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

Completely agree, they seem driven by intellectual dick swinging to get reddit upvotes. Fry said these loonies are more interested in being right than effective, with respect to politics, and it sums it up right. 

 

Just click "ignore" and oggle the pizza pictures. 

Fair one. For what it's worth, I still believe in reading and listening to a broad range of opinions. I do think Starmer has handled internal party politics poorly at times - but ultimately that doesn't matter because the bloke's trying to run a basket case of a country, not a pissing Student Union.

Edited 14 June by Voll Blau

[Daggers]

8 hours ago, Voll Blau said:

Fair one. For what it's worth, I still believe in reading and listening to a broad range of opinions. I do think Starmer has handled internal party politics poorly at times - but ultimately that doesn't matter because the bloke's trying to run a basket case of a country, not a pissing Student Union.

Don’t think he’s done too bad of a job of it tbh. 
 

Abbott would be sitting at home looking forward to a cup of tea and a Lords’ expenses claim form - but decided a couple of column inches everyone will forget was more important. 
 

By and large, he’s kept everything in a box. That’s quite remarkable comparing Labour to the other side and their disintegration. Outside of those who are political, I doubt any of the internal wranglings have blipped on their radar. 
 

 

[StanSP]

9 hours ago, Wymsey said:

Good font size, Reform UK, but a little more context about your plans would've been helpful - no?..

 

 

They don't have answers. Just finger-pointing and mud-slinging. 

[The Doctor]

13 hours ago, ajthefox said:

Are people really worried about reform taking seats?

 

IIRC UKIP got 4 million votes and only managed 1 seat. I know the tories are crashing and burning but I'd be surprised to see Reform getting any genuine traction.

they will get seats, not a huge amount because of the way fptp works (small parties need a huge national swing to gain a few seats compared to the bigger parties). the threat with reform is that they replace the Tories as the main right wing alternative to labour (particularly if the Canada 1993 level Tory wipeout being predicted occurs) and so are more placed to gain significant inroads in 2029

[Bilo]

13 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

they will get seats, not a huge amount because of the way fptp works (small parties need a huge national swing to gain a few seats compared to the bigger parties). the threat with reform is that they replace the Tories as the main right wing alternative to labour (particularly if the Canada 1993 level Tory wipeout being predicted occurs) and so are more placed to gain significant inroads in 2029

Canada 1993 seems to me the model for Farage. The Progressive Conservatives never recovered from that destruction and the remnants merged with the Canadian equivalent to Reform to create the CPC. 

 

Incidentally, they've only governed for five of the 31 years since. We could be in for a generation of Labour government. 

[HighPeakFox]

6 minutes ago, Bilo said:

Canada 1993 seems to me the model for Farage. The Progressive Conservatives never recovered from that destruction and the remnants merged with the Canadian equivalent to Reform to create the CPC. 

 

Incidentally, they've only governed for five of the 31 years since. We could be in for a generation of Labour government. 

I think that with the press/media we have, this is very unlikely.

[The Doctor]

11 minutes ago, Bilo said:

Canada 1993 seems to me the model for Farage. The Progressive Conservatives never recovered from that destruction and the remnants merged with the Canadian equivalent to Reform to create the CPC. 

 

Incidentally, they've only governed for five of the 31 years since. We could be in for a generation of Labour government. 

id be shocked if that was the case. the biggest problem is that all the economic talk from Starmer and Reeves is a continuation of austerity, which means there won't be significant improvements to people's material conditions. that then leaves them being wildly unpopular and creates very fertile ground for the far right, akin to the gains that the likes of Le Pen and AfD are making. 

[StanSP]

18 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

I think that with the press/media we have, this is very unlikely.

True, but some of those media have turned on Tories in the last 6-12 months because of the shit show they've served up... 

[Dr The Singh]

https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-2024-british-accountability-and-tackling-hate-crime-the-wish-list-of-sikh-voters-in-key-target-labour-areas-13153037

 

For me the point about Britain's accountability on the India's Sikh genocide is pertinent.  Britain needs yo be held accountable for its actions also.

Edited 15 June by Dr The Singh

[HighPeakFox]

5 minutes ago, StanSP said:

True, but some of those media have turned on Tories in the last 6-12 months because of the shit show they've served up... 

Yes, and will go harder right once they've decided that they can be on the winning side.

[Bilo]

1 hour ago, The Doctor said:

id be shocked if that was the case. the biggest problem is that all the economic talk from Starmer and Reeves is a continuation of austerity, which means there won't be significant improvements to people's material conditions. that then leaves them being wildly unpopular and creates very fertile ground for the far right, akin to the gains that the likes of Le Pen and AfD are making. 

We need to remember how low the bar is. Competence and even a modest increase in living standards as a result will look like serious progress, especially after the last five years. 

 

If the Tories collapse into infighting at the same time, memories of their ineptitude will be fresh enough to make voters run a mile from them - especially if Farage has merged his rabble with them. 

 

It's worth remembering as well that France and Germany have PR that highlights any such rises in the popularity of third parties, while our FPTP suppresses them. 

[Bilo]

1 hour ago, HighPeakFox said:

Yes, and will go harder right once they've decided that they can be on the winning side.

Most British voters are pretty moderate really. It's no coincidence that the most unpopular period in Labour history was Corbyn's leadership and that even lifelong Tory voters despise Trump, for example. Hard right and hard left get very vocal support, but that shouldn't be mistaken for widespread mainstream popularity.

 

I've seen people thinking that Reform's popularity is being underestimated and basing that argument on what they're seeing on social media and the crowds Farage gets on the campaign trail. These arguments are identical to those that Corbynistas were making between 2015 and 2019, and it'll end in the same way. 

 

If Starmer's government is even passable in its competence and stability and the Tories think a Faragist merger on a populist right platform will be the answer in 2029, the results for them will be more William Hague than Tony Blair. 

Edited 15 June by Bilo

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, Bilo said:

Most British voters are pretty moderate really. It's no coincidence that the most unpopular period in Labour history was Corbyn's leadership and that even lifelong Tory voters despise Trump, for example. Hard right and hard left get very vocal support, but that shouldn't be mistaken for widespread mainstream popularity.

 

I've seen people thinking that Reform's popularity is being underestimated and basing that argument on what they're seeing on social media and the crowds Farage gets on the campaign trail. These arguments are identical to those that Corbynistas were making between 2015 and 2019, and it'll end in the same way. 

 

If Starmer's government is even passable in its competence and stability and the Tories think a Faragist merger on a populist right platform will be the answer in 2029, the results for them will be more William Hague than Tony Blair. 

I'll be honest, I think this way because I've seen how such ideologies take root elsewhere and how effective social media is at planting them (I think it's a game-changer), and quite frankly I worry a lot about the consequences if they gain enough traction because it's obvious how terribly severe they will be, even if the risk is low.

 

I really hope you're right, because the powers that govern the Universe help us all if you're not.

[Bilo]

13 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I'll be honest, I think this way because I've seen how such ideologies take root elsewhere and how effective social media is at planting them (I think it's a game-changer), and quite frankly I worry a lot about the consequences if they gain enough traction because it's obvious how terribly severe they will be, even if the risk is low.

 

I really hope you're right, because the powers that govern the Universe help us all if you're not.

I suspect it will, but not yet. A lot of the factors that have helped extremists over the line don't exist here - such as PR, a strict two-party system where entrists can force it into an extreme direction, a history of extremism and so on.

[Sampson]

47 minutes ago, Bilo said:

Most British voters are pretty moderate really. It's no coincidence that the most unpopular period in Labour history was Corbyn's leadership and that even lifelong Tory voters despise Trump, for example. Hard right and hard left get very vocal support, but that shouldn't be mistaken for widespread mainstream popularity.

 

I've seen people thinking that Reform's popularity is being underestimated and basing that argument on what they're seeing on social media and the crowds Farage gets on the campaign trail. These arguments are identical to those that Corbynistas were making between 2015 and 2019, and it'll end in the same way. 

 

If Starmer's government is even passable in its competence and stability and the Tories think a Faragist merger on a populist right platform will be the answer in 2029, the results for them will be more William Hague than Tony Blair. 

Thatcher was an economic extremist though and she won and transformed where the “moderate centre ground” is in this country still to this day. As were Cameron and Osborne’s brutal austerity measures.
 

They were just good at dressing it up in a way that makes it sound acceptable to centrists, Farage does the same in a lot of ways too. I agree most people consider themselves moderate, the problem is when you have politicians who are very successful at moving the moderate centre ground. 

[Daggers]

“If you could always do more than it says that’d be fab”
 

 

[The Doctor]

3 hours ago, Bilo said:

Most British voters are pretty moderate really. It's no coincidence that the most unpopular period in Labour history was Corbyn's leadership and that even lifelong Tory voters despise Trump, for example. Hard right and hard left get very vocal support, but that shouldn't be mistaken for widespread mainstream popularity.

 

I've seen people thinking that Reform's popularity is being underestimated and basing that argument on what they're seeing on social media and the crowds Farage gets on the campaign trail. These arguments are identical to those that Corbynistas were making between 2015 and 2019, and it'll end in the same way. 

 

If Starmer's government is even passable in its competence and stability and the Tories think a Faragist merger on a populist right platform will be the answer in 2029, the results for them will be more William Hague than Tony Blair. 

sorry, but this is pretty massive historical revisionism. 2017 corbyn was comparable to Blair 2001 in terms of popular vote, it was specifically 2019 where he was about as popular as Rooney would be taking the Liverpool job, and a big part of that was the antisemitism allegations - despite not being any more antisemitic than the UK at large (we're talking about a country where Blairs labour ran attack ads against Howard for being Jewish, and where the press crucified miliband with classic "dual loyalties" antisemitic allegations), if you read the papers you'd think he was going to open Auschwitz the moment he took power, because that suited the press, and this has been a consistent theme over the last 5 years - Boris was the man, your charming uncle, right up until the aftermath of COVID. he didn't change at all, but the press coverage of him did, because he'd outlived his usefulness. same with Sunak, from the BBC portraying him as Superman to now, his politics haven't changed, whether he's useful to the likes of Murdoch and Dacre did. If Truss wasn't in and out quicker than the average Watford manager she'd likely have faced the same. this is the issue Starmer will also face and why is not be surprised if he didn't last to 2029 - the kid gloves have been on for now in terms of press coverage, but once Sunak is gone, how long is Starmer useful to them before the propaganda machine goes into overdrive and he's killed off.

[urban.spaceman]

16 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

sorry, but this is pretty massive historical revisionism. 2017 corbyn was comparable to Blair 2001 in terms of popular vote, it was specifically 2019 where he was about as popular as Rooney would be taking the Liverpool job, and a big part of that was the antisemitism allegations - despite not being any more antisemitic than the UK at large (we're talking about a country where Blairs labour ran attack ads against Howard for being Jewish, and where the press crucified miliband with classic "dual loyalties" antisemitic allegations), if you read the papers you'd think he was going to open Auschwitz the moment he took power, because that suited the press, and this has been a consistent theme over the last 5 years - Boris was the man, your charming uncle, right up until the aftermath of COVID. he didn't change at all, but the press coverage of him did, because he'd outlived his usefulness. same with Sunak, from the BBC portraying him as Superman to now, his politics haven't changed, whether he's useful to the likes of Murdoch and Dacre did. If Truss wasn't in and out quicker than the average Watford manager she'd likely have faced the same. this is the issue Starmer will also face and why is not be surprised if he didn't last to 2029 - the kid gloves have been on for now in terms of press coverage, but once Sunak is gone, how long is Starmer useful to them before the propaganda machine goes into overdrive and he's killed off.

Important context - May got 42% in 2017 whereas Hague got 31% in 2001. It's a bit like celebrating our higher xG than our opponents despite losing 4-1.

 

His polling had been utterly dreadful for his entire 'leadership' - his best - and ONLY good - rating against May was a 2% lead in the days running up the election, in which she had proposed a DEMENTIA TAX.

 

Trying to put any sort of positive spin on the 2017 election is absolutely absurd.

[Daggers]