Election prediction time

[urban.spaceman]

It’s happening. 
 

 

[Daggers]

3 hours ago, Bilo said:

I've seen this argument on Twitter and it's wildly simplistic.

 

Firstly, popular vote means jack. Labour's vote under Corbyn was incredibly inefficient as the party built huge majorities in strongholds but haemorrhaged votes in marginals. It made Labour look more electable than it ever actually was because Corbyn was only really good at motivating people who basically already agreed with him.

 

Secondly, Blair had to deal with the Lib Dems when they were viable under Ashdown and then Brown had to deal with them under Clegg before he became one of the most hated politicians in the UK. Fast forward to 2015 and Miliband is having to battle out working-class constituencies with UKIP.

 

By 2019, with the Lib Dems on their arse and UKIP gone, you had millions of working-class and pro-Remain votes that had to go somewhere. Effective Labour leadership would have loved this situation, but Labour had someone who was only interested in speaking to people who were already on side. Some working-class voters went to Labour, making the party look more popular than it was, but the vast majority went to the Tories in what had all but become a two party system. The result was that the Tory popular vote grew far more than the Labour vote, especially in marginals where UKIP had once been strong and the Brexit Party/Company stood aside for Brexit. The result was obvious. 

 

The allegations of antisemitism regarding Corbyn himself were unfair, but much harder to dismiss with swathes of his supporters and the reality is that he did a very, very poor job of tackling this phenomenon. It's also, frankly, bizarre to simultaneously laugh off allegations of antisemitism against Corbyn while simultaneously accusing Blair of 'attacking Howard for being Jewish.' The flying pigs ad was tasteless and crass, but the targeted harassment of Jewish activists in Labour who did not unequivocally support Corbyn was real, supported by evidence from the EHRC and grossly unedifying.  

 

FWIW, I suspect Starmer intends to be a one term PM. He'll be in his mid sixties by 2029 and the likely scale of Labour's victory means they're probably still going to be in power on his 70th birthday. He has already spoken in no uncertain terms about Labour's need for a female leader in the near future and Rachel Reeves' profile is very prominent indeed. I would be very surprised if she wasn't Labour leader by the start of the next decade. 

[Daggers]

 

[Daggers]

 

[StanSP]

51 minutes ago, Daggers said:

 

Keep politics out of Tiktok. 

 

[urban.spaceman]

Can we talk about Labour’s candidate for Clacton’s style? I can’t decide if he looks dapper as **** or like an 80s Doctor Who cosplay.

 

If someone could get him an umbrella with a question mark shaped handle that would be lovely. 

[ozleicester]

6 hours ago, cityfanlee23 said:

One thing that is annoying me at the moment is the sheer amount of mistruths Nigel Farage is getting away with

This applies to all and it is worth remembering that Foxestalk is "social media"

The lies, mistruths and deciet is being allowed on all platforms and whether its Rupert controlling his minions or Musk or Zuck etc. If a powerful owner prevents discussion they are a partialy responsible.

This post has been fact checked by...

[Alf Bentley]

8 hours ago, urban.spaceman said:

Can we talk about Labour’s candidate for Clacton’s style? I can’t decide if he looks dapper as **** or like an 80s Doctor Who cosplay.

 

If someone could get him an umbrella with a question mark shaped handle that would be lovely. 

 

Just imagine if the right-wing vote in Clacton is split between Farage and the Tories and this bloke comes swanking across the stage, swinging his coat tails, having been elected as  MP...... 

[Daggers]

8 hours ago, ozleicester said:

This applies to all and it is worth remembering that Foxestalk is "social media"
 

Lie

[Sampson]

Interesting on the discussion on who the new Tory leader will be from those that remain

 

 

[Daggers]

It’s discrimination in my book

 

 

[The Doctor]

39 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Interesting on the discussion on who the new Tory leader will be from those that remain

 

 

of those you'd expect it'll end up being Badenoch given the way she kept getting talked up as leader when the knives were out for sunak a few months ago

[The Doctor]

 

 

🎵thiiings, cannot get better🎵

[StanSP]

20 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

 

 

🎵thiiings, cannot get better🎵

Can they get less worse though ?

 

 

[StanSP]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

Interesting on the discussion on who the new Tory leader will be from those that remain

 

 

There's 'best of a bad bunch' then there's that. 

[kenny]

24 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

 

 

🎵thiiings, cannot get better🎵

That think-tank hasn't factored in that labour in power will be able to buy MRI scanners at a quarter of the price that the Tories can.

 

I assume they will also be able to employ doctors for £5k a year or however their calculations stack up.

[UniFox21]

I find Ed Davey the most likeable and human of any of the leaders. 

Shame our system will only allow one of the big 2 to be PM

[izzymuzzet]

Been out door knocking for Labour in two North West marginal seats this weekend. One is a bellwether seat, won by the Tories in 2019 but has been Labour before. The other has been held by the Tories since it was created 30 years ago. A few takeaways:

 

I’ve not spoken to a single person voting Conservative, including quite a few who did in 2019. Of those 2019 Conservative voters I’d say a third are planning to vote Labour. The rest a mix of Reform, Lib Dem and not voting. Even the guy I spoke to who sends his kids to private school and was very annoyed at Labour’s VAT on private schools policy is planning to vote Lib Dem. 

 

I wouldn’t say there’s a wave of enthusiasm for Labour but quite a few people have heard more from Starmer over the last few weeks and like him. A lot of “he seems like a safe pair of hands”.

 

Spoke to a few 2017 and 2019 Labour voters and the vast majority are voting Labour this time. Didn’t speak to anyone going Green. It helps that these are marginal seats where it’s essentially a straight choice between Labour and Conservative.

 

Pretty much everyone thought the NHS is in a terrible state and that will influence how they vote. 

 

Generally there’s a lot of anti-politics feeling. I didn’t hear a lot of “they’re all the same” but the 2019 Conservative voters I spoke to felt very let down by Brexit (both remainers and leavers) and the chaos of the last few years. The key for Labour over the next couple of weeks is turning those voters from ‘definitely not Tory’ to Labour. 

[StanSP]

I often wonder what it'd be like to be canvassed on my own doorstep. In all the time I've been able to vote, I've never had someone come to the door to try and get my vote for them. 

 

[izzymuzzet]

3 minutes ago, StanSP said:

I often wonder what it'd be like to be canvassed on my own doorstep. In all the time I've been able to vote, I've never had someone come to the door to try and get my vote for them. 

 

Only happened to me once, when I was student living in a marginal. Have lived in safe seats the past decade or so and never been canvassed once. Although as a paid up Labour member I’d be worried about the data operation if I got a knock on the door. 

[bmt]

1 hour ago, kenny said:

That think-tank hasn't factored in that labour in power will be able to buy MRI scanners at a quarter of the price that the Tories can.

 

I assume they will also be able to employ doctors for £5k a year or however their calculations stack up.

Yawn

[Ian Nacho]

I genuinely have no clue how I'm going to vote. The least sure I've ever been going into a general election.

[Daggers]

 

[Daggers]

Magic Grampy really can FOAD.

[kenny]

22 minutes ago, bmt said:

Yawn

What's the issue.

 

Assuming they deliver it's exactly what the public sector needs. More staff and equipment for less cost than can be delivered under the current regime.