Election prediction time

[Greg2607]

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/reform-uk-manifesto-reaction

 

Just in case anyone wanted to understand how realistic reforms "contract" is..... 🙄

[Sampson]

15 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/reform-uk-manifesto-reaction

 

Just in case anyone wanted to understand how realistic reforms "contract" is..... 🙄

Nigel Farage pulls made up numbers out of thin air, who’d have thought it? 

[bovril]

Just now, Sampson said:

Nigel Farage pulls made up numbers out of thin air, who’d have thought it? 

 

[Greg2607]

It's the danger of populism isn't it.  You can say whatever you want when you don't have to actually implement it and people go "yeah actually that sounds great".... 

 

They then vote for thing that sounds great, but can never be a reality and eventually, because the party in power can't deliver what the populist party are advocating for, they get into power. 

 

At which point, we are out of the echr (goodbye to all of your current holiday and employment rights)

 

Private healthcare arrives.

 

And we basically become a pariah state. 

 

The scariest thing is that I can see a path to this being a reality. 

[Daggers]

29 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/reform-uk-manifesto-reaction

 

Just in case anyone wanted to understand how realistic reforms "contract" is..... 🙄

They don’t care. 
 

They’ll say the IFS is run by WEF or some other such bullshit. Truth doesn’t count, promising to throw brown skinned people out of the country is all they care about. 
 

Well, that and being against vaccines, clouds and thinking. 

[Dunge]

4 hours ago, Sampson said:

Why the **** would anyone genuinely vote to leave the European Court of Human Rights just so you can fly a few assylum seekers to Rwanda?
 

It’s tukeys voting for Christmas because Christmas said he’d kick the parsnips off the dinner table.

 

I understand we’re told we’re always supposed to not be in a bubble and genuinely listen to what the other side has to say but I just can’t get my head round something like this. 

If I may:

 

The idea is that we replace our participation in the ECHR with a “British Bill of Rights”, which would - in theory - allow us to cherry pick the best parts of it whilst removing the undesirable parts. Want to keep holiday rights and maternity pay? They go into the British Bill of Rights. Want to remove those pesky laws of which human rights lawyers increasingly advise migrants so that they can penetrate the bureaucracy? They’re out. How about those laws that stop the police from slapping Just Stop Oil protesters? That’s a grey area but we can discuss. Either way, it’s open for discussion now. What an opportunity.

 

If you’re picking up a hint of sarcasm in the above then you’re right but that’s what it’s about in terms of what parties like Reform are selling, and if you ignore the possibility of it being the thin end of the wedge and being all about reducing migration then you can understand the argument. (As long as you don’t follow the logic too far after the headline statements.)

[Voll Blau]

28 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

It's the danger of populism isn't it.  You can say whatever you want when you don't have to actually implement it and people go "yeah actually that sounds great".... 

 

They then vote for thing that sounds great, but can never be a reality and eventually, because the party in power can't deliver what the populist party are advocating for, they get into power. 

 

At which point, we are out of the echr (goodbye to all of your current holiday and employment rights)

 

Private healthcare arrives.

 

And we basically become a pariah state. 

 

The scariest thing is that I can see a path to this being a reality. 

Reform placard was going up around the corner from us earlier this evening.

 

Heart sank a bit. People are being conned - again.

[Daggers]

Reform spokesperson for Merthyr giving a good account of the “party’s” policies here

 

 

[leicsmac]

22 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

Reform placard was going up around the corner from us earlier this evening.

 

Heart sank a bit. People are being conned - again.

Expectation is they'll win one or two seats at best, thankfully.

 

Who knows what the landscape will be like in five years time though?

[Sly]

People are actually going to vote for reform aren’t they? 
 

[Daggers]

3 minutes ago, Sly said:

People are actually going to vote for reform aren’t they? 
 

 

[BenTheFox]

6 hours ago, l444ry said:

I'm concerned we're falling into the same trap again with this. It gives me flashbacks to the EU referendum. During the EU referendum, many people who were open to voting Brexit were ridiculed as being stupid and did they come around to our way if thinking? Of course they didn't. They got their backs up even more. 

[Sampson]

Just now, BenTheFox said:

I'm concerned we're falling into the same trap again with this. It gives me flashbacks to the EU referendum. During the EU referendum, many people who were open to voting Brexit were ridiculed as being stupid and did they come around to our way if thinking? Of course they didn't. They got their backs up even more. 

I’m sorry but I hate this argument, it didn’t get their back ups even more, they weren’t listening to reasonable arguments so what could you do? As soon as you tried to have a genuine argument with them about the impacts of leaving the EU, you just got “project fear” and “you don’t back Britain” back. 
 

You can’t win with these people. You call a spade a spade and you get three word slogans and calls for blind patriotism back.

[leicsmac]

15 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

I'm concerned we're falling into the same trap again with this. It gives me flashbacks to the EU referendum. During the EU referendum, many people who were open to voting Brexit were ridiculed as being stupid and did they come around to our way if thinking? Of course they didn't. They got their backs up even more. 

I despise even having to say this because it goes against everything I like about our species and I believed it once, but rational argument as is being advocated for here only works when you have an agreed point of fact/truth to rely upon.

 

The events of 2016 and subsequently have shown that even the very idea of truth and fact can and will be subverted for nefarious purposes, and when that happens "winning the argument" in any significant way becomes much, much harder.

 

What to do to alleviate the issue instead? Damned if I know, but we need a solution - and fast. Perhaps the best way is to do what is possible and hope - really, really hope - that is enough to win over enough of a plurality of those not quite committed when it comes to policymaking

Edited 17 June by leicsmac

[Sampson]

On this note - I give it by tomorrow morning until Farage is calling the IFS woke leftists and has his voters eating out his hands over these tens of billions Reform have just invented. 
 

The fact Brexit happened, has been a disaster, people’s lives haven’t improved and have largely got worse and people are still willing to fall for his endless lies, made up statistics and blind calls for patriotism should tell you all you need to know. 
 

Need to give up the ghost on these people, you can’t reason with them.

Edited 17 June by Sampson

[StanSP]

26 minutes ago, Sly said:

People are actually going to vote for reform aren’t they? 
 

Conned. And they're too stupid to see it. 

[leicsmac]

10 minutes ago, Sampson said:

On this note - I give it by tomorrow morning until Farage is calling the IFS woke leftists and has his voters eating out his hands over these tens of billions Reform have just invented. 
 

The fact Brexit happened, has been a disaster, people’s lives haven’t improved and have largely got worse and people are still willing to fall for his endless lies, made up statistics and blind calls for patriotism should tell you all you need to know. 
 

Need to give up the ghost on these people, you can’t reason with them.

That may end up being the case, but if it is, as per above you're going to have to pray like hell that they do not get a plurality of the vote large enough to craft policy, because that will be... rather consequential.

 

Edit: I've said it before, I really, really hope I'm wrong about where this might all lead.

Edited 17 June by leicsmac

[urban.spaceman]

27 minutes ago, Sly said:

People are actually going to vote for reform aren’t they? 
 

I've already seen a Reform poster in my village.

[Grebfromgrebland]

4 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Lots of discussion WRT energy policy on the news today.

 

It really shouldn't be a discussion, though. The equation is simple - either pay more to get the necessary infrastructure in and get foreign policy in place to facilitate other nations to do the same... or pay much more, in lives and money, in the future, and be remembered in infamy as responsible for that cost by every single generation thereafter.

We shouldn't have to pay more to get the necessary infrastructure. We've more than covered it in our bills over the few years.

 

 

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

We shouldn't have to pay more to get the necessary infrastructure. We've more than covered it in our bills over the few years.

 

 

I agree.

 

However, I'm more interested in it being done than that, given the cost of the consequences if it is not done anyway. Less quibble, more action.

[StanSP]

Do the potential Reform voters genuinely think Farage will be gifting them super-fast money trees and within a few years they'll be rolling in cash? They can't be serious

 

I get they want change. Some years of being fvcked over isn't the change they should want or need. 

[Tuna]

38 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Reform spokesperson for Merthyr giving a good account of the “party’s” policies here

 

 

**** her right in the face pussy?

[Grebfromgrebland]

We need someone actually on the side of the British people out there.

 

Open a genuine green not for profit rival energy company that people can switch to.

[Brizzle Fox]

1 minute ago, StanSP said:

Do the potential Reform voters genuinely think Farage will be gifting them super-fast money trees and within a few years they'll be rolling in cash? They can't be serious

 

I get they want change. Some years of being fvcked over isn't the change they should want or need. 

Maybe they think he'll give them shares in his Limited Company.  

 

Share the wealth. 

[Dunge]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

Do the potential Reform voters genuinely think Farage will be gifting them super-fast money trees and within a few years they'll be rolling in cash? They can't be serious

 

I get they want change. Some years of being fvcked over isn't the change they should want or need. 

They don’t care about economics. They believe the country will sort itself out if you just give it the chance, just like it always has before. They think Nigel “Tell-it-like-it-is” Farage will save them from immigration, the woke and the green leftist communists who want to control every aspect of their lives.