Election prediction time

[RoboFox]

9 minutes ago, westernpark said:

Those wondering why individuals want to vote for Reform. You only have to see the downward spiral of Blue Van Man since Covid, that indicates the effects of Covid lockdown and increased internet use, making quite ordinary people increasingly paranoid about things that aren’t important. 

Thankfully I wasn't aware of that person until now, but having watched 0.2 seconds of an opinion video and he mentioned someone "telling it like it is" and "woke" and it's immediately obvious that it's certainly the second of those two things. Disenfranchised, angry middle-aged white man in rambling right-wing views shocker. 

 

And now I'm going to get recommended videos him reviewing all-day breakfast in a tin FFS. 

 

[Daggers]

6 hours ago, jgtuk said:

This is one of the worst things, either bite your tongue and move on or tackle head on, which never ends well. 
I only have one neighbour but If Carlsberg made neighbours, then mine would be them, apart from their awful politics. 
Very wealthy boomers who have worked and lived abroad with an ex-pat community for decades, now semi retired. They love Farage 😢

Bloke is into scooters, 2-tone, ska, Motown - but apparently people who support a different religion is too much for him. He made a post about stopping the “invasion” and how “you can’t even say you’re English anymore”. 
 

I don’t reckon you can reason with this mindset, people like him have already gone down a rabbit hole of videos and Facebook groups - I’m just some WEF communist who wants Muslims to rape the child he doesn’t have. 
 

Had enough trying to debate these people during Brexit - still don’t talk to my Dad. Far as it goes now I block and hope society either educates them or puts them back in their pre-Brexit box. 

[BenTheFox]

Just give me Jonathan Gullis crying at 4am having lost his seat. It's what we live for. 

[leicsmac]

49 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

Parties like Reform appeal mainly to the disaffected, or those who feel let down by the main stream parties.  They generally have simplistic slogans, and policies that on the surface look attractive to the "average" voter. 

 

If you were on minimum wage and living on £50 a week after bills.... guess what.... raising income tax above £20k is probably really appealing..... 

 

if you've bought into the narrative that illegal migration has caused all of societies ills (spoiler alter, it hasn't) then you would be happy for them saying they would deport everyone and have immigration as zero. 

 

it's how brexit manifested and got delivered... it was built on slogans, untruths and down right lies at times.... but it appealed to enough people to happen... 

 

THAT is the fear... that this builds momentum and becomes a mainstream party that is elected in 2029 when things haven't changed that much over the next 5 years.... 

Quite.

 

And then the question becomes... how do you address that situation?

 

How do you stop the worldviews of people that are entirely built on a "different form of truth" (I'm being generous framing it that way) from becoming policy, before that policy causes a very great deal of harm to a great many people and possibly the biosphere itself?

[Greg2607]

22 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Quite.

 

And then the question becomes... how do you address that situation?

 

How do you stop the worldviews of people that are entirely built on a "different form of truth" (I'm being generous framing it that way) from becoming policy, before that policy causes a very great deal of harm to a great many people and possibly the biosphere itself?

Quite honestly.... the ONLY way to do that is to address the inequality that exists in our society.  More money has to flow from the Rich (and I mean Super Rich) to society in general. 

 

literally no one on this forum would be impacted by a policy that looks to impose taxes onto wealth at the super rich level.  Tax people with Wealth above £50m for example and ONLY tax them on how much that wealth grows per year.......... if your £50m wealth  earns you £5m.... then I'll tax you £1m of it.... your overall wealth has still GROWN by £4m.... 

 

the inequality gap is widening at an alarming pace and that is why the vast majority of society is seeing their standard of living decrease...... it is that standard of living decrease that causes people to look for the alternatives from people in power who promise to rectify the situation. It also causes them to become more selfish in their decision making, as they are trying hard to survive and keep their head above water. 

 

but guess what happens when the super rich retain all of their wealth.... they buy stuff with it... in order to generate more wealth... things like houses for example.... 

 

want to know why house prices aren't coming down? because people with £millions can still afford to buy them, by the bucket load and then rent them out. the asset maintains it's price.  even worse than that, it means we have a generation of people now, who are still living at home in their 30's and when they do eventually buy a house, they have a massive mortgage which prevents them from affording kids, or planning for retirement, or spending money down the shops... the problem just compounds itself. 

 

as a whole.... I don't think people who "want our country" back are ACTUALLY talking about it being 99% white.... 

 

they want affordable housing... or a social provision such as council housing. 

they want to be able to feed their family. 

access a GP. 

get treatment on the NHS. 

they want public transport that works. 

 

It's a travesty that there were over 2 million visits to foodbanks in 2023 and even more so that 70% of people receiving benefits are in paid employment.... how have we managed to build a society where having a job, doesn't actually provide a level of income that doesn't need topping up by the state. It is literally the government propping up business.  

 

it's  just that these types of people have bought into the belief that it is "johnny foreigner" that is causing these problems, rather than successive governments not spending enough to provide those services.  Privatisation of national services such as utilities didn't help either... but's let not go down that track. 

 

 

Edited 18 June by Greg2607

[leicsmac]

13 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

Quite honestly.... the ONLY way to do that is to address the inequality that exists in our society.  More money has to flow from the Rich (and I mean Super Rich) to society in general. 

 

literally no one on this forum would be impacted by a policy that looks to impose taxes onto wealth at the super rich level.  Tax people with Wealth above £50m for example and ONLY tax them on how much that wealth grows per year.......... if your £50m wealth  earns you £5m.... then I'll tax you £1m of it.... your overall wealth has still GROWN by £4m.... 

 

the inequality gap is widening at an alarming pace and that is why the vast majority of society is seeing their standard of living decrease...... it is that standard of living decrease that causes people to look for the alternatives from people in power who promise to rectify the situation. It also causes them to become more selfish in their decision making, as they are trying hard to survive and keep their head above water. 

 

but guess what happens when the super rich retain all of their wealth.... they buy stuff with it... in order to generate more wealth... things like houses for example.... 

 

want to know why house prices aren't coming down? because people with £millions can still afford to buy them, by the bucket load and then rent them out. the asset maintains it's price.  even worse than that, it means we have a generation of people now, who are still living at home in their 30's and when they do eventually buy a house, they have a massive mortgage which prevents them from affording kids, or planning for retirement, or spending money down the shops... the problem just compounds itself. 

 

as a whole.... I don't think people who "want our country" back are ACTUALLY talking about it being 99% white.... 

 

they want affordable housing... or a social provision such as council housing. 

they want to be able to feed their family. 

access a GP. 

get treatment on the NHS. 

they want public transport that works. 

 

It's a travesty that there were over 2 million visits to foodbanks in 2023 and even more so that 70% of people receiving benefits are in paid employment.... how have we managed to build a society where having a job, doesn't actually provide a level of income that doesn't need topping up by the state. It is literally the government propping up business.  

 

it's  just that these types of people have bought into the belief that it is "johnny foreigner" that is causing these problems, rather than successive governments not spending enough to provide those services.  Privatisation of national services such as utilities didn't help either... but's let not go down that track. 

 

 

Sounds astute to me.

 

Here's hoping a solution can be applied. And soon. Covid was a very very small test of unified action that we barely, and at unnecessarily great cost, we passed. The next test might not be so small.

 

13 minutes ago, jgtuk said:

Not sure that’s a fair comment, you know nothing of their relationship. 
 

And insistence on the primacy of family ties outvaluing all else just leads to evident misery so often anyway.

Edited 18 June by leicsmac

[zorro en españa]

 

 

What has upset me more than anything in politics in the last five years has been the blatant corruption and lies barely called out by a sycophantic mainstream media.  It is obvious that most participants on here will not vote Conservative but there will be people lurking (and some participating) that will.  

 

Like others I would be intrigued to know why?  What, in heaven’s name, has been achieved.  

 

And now we have Farage re-surface.  In fairness, given the profile he enjoys in the MSM, it hardly feels like he’s been away.  Sound bite promises that can resonate with people who feel “lost with politics”.  I remember all too well the morning following the Brexit result: Farage, Johnson & Gove - the limelight kids - couldn’t be found anywhere.  Basically because they had no plan, they’d lied to the electorate and promised things they knew they could not deliver.  Farage is an opportunist (that is the kindest thing I could call him) and I hope he is put under the microscope (not holding my breath) because he’s doing it again - promising things he will not be able to deliver other than divisiveness.  I hope and pray the UK electorate do not fall for it again.

[Lionator]

31 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

Quite honestly.... the ONLY way to do that is to address the inequality that exists in our society.  More money has to flow from the Rich (and I mean Super Rich) to society in general. 

 

literally no one on this forum would be impacted by a policy that looks to impose taxes onto wealth at the super rich level.  Tax people with Wealth above £50m for example and ONLY tax them on how much that wealth grows per year.......... if your £50m wealth  earns you £5m.... then I'll tax you £1m of it.... your overall wealth has still GROWN by £4m.... 

 

the inequality gap is widening at an alarming pace and that is why the vast majority of society is seeing their standard of living decrease...... it is that standard of living decrease that causes people to look for the alternatives from people in power who promise to rectify the situation. It also causes them to become more selfish in their decision making, as they are trying hard to survive and keep their head above water. 

 

but guess what happens when the super rich retain all of their wealth.... they buy stuff with it... in order to generate more wealth... things like houses for example.... 

 

want to know why house prices aren't coming down? because people with £millions can still afford to buy them, by the bucket load and then rent them out. the asset maintains it's price.  even worse than that, it means we have a generation of people now, who are still living at home in their 30's and when they do eventually buy a house, they have a massive mortgage which prevents them from affording kids, or planning for retirement, or spending money down the shops... the problem just compounds itself. 

 

as a whole.... I don't think people who "want our country" back are ACTUALLY talking about it being 99% white.... 

 

they want affordable housing... or a social provision such as council housing. 

they want to be able to feed their family. 

access a GP. 

get treatment on the NHS. 

they want public transport that works. 

 

It's a travesty that there were over 2 million visits to foodbanks in 2023 and even more so that 70% of people receiving benefits are in paid employment.... how have we managed to build a society where having a job, doesn't actually provide a level of income that doesn't need topping up by the state. It is literally the government propping up business.  

 

it's  just that these types of people have bought into the belief that it is "johnny foreigner" that is causing these problems, rather than successive governments not spending enough to provide those services.  Privatisation of national services such as utilities didn't help either... but's let not go down that track. 

 

 

This is basically the Gary Stevenson argument. 
 

Argues that covid was the greatest wealth redistribution event in post ww2 history. The government took a massive central loan and gave it all to the 0.1% (aka what the Russians did after the collapse of the Soviet Union). 
 

We need things such as rent increase caps, massive social housing building and wage growth especially for the lowest earners. None of this will happen. We’ll keep blaming immigrants, growth will still stagnate and we’ll be back at square one in 2029 while China and India’s economy’s continue to take over Europe. 

[urban.spaceman]

4 hours ago, Angus Scott said:

Perhaps this thread should be re-titled "We all love the Labour Party"

 

22 hours ago, MPH said:

 

[HighPeakFox]

4 hours ago, Angus Scott said:

In fairness I have only read the last few pages. I just think that the written aggression towards anyone who may not agree with the "Tory scum", "fascist Reform" or any other party is totally wrong. People are entitled to their beliefs.

They are indeed. And people are equally entitled to point out their belief that a vote for the Tories or Reform is now a dangerous thing to do. 

[BenTheFox]

Has anyone actually read Reform's manifesto or "contract with the people"?

 

It's a ghastly cocktail of unfunded tax cuts, austerity, dogwhistles and conspiracy theories. 

[Lionator]

7 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

Has anyone actually read Reform's manifesto or "contract with the people"?

 

It's a ghastly cocktail of unfunded tax cuts, austerity, dogwhistles and conspiracy theories. 

Nothing screams ‘reform’ like gaslighting the working class into making the upper class richer. 

[leicsmac]

29 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Nothing screams ‘reform’ like gaslighting the working class into making the upper class richer. 

And condemning themselves and their descendants along with a lot of other people in the long term.

[StanSP]

2 hours ago, BenTheFox said:

Just give me Jonathan Gullis crying at 4am having lost his seat. It's what we live for. 

And Rees Mogg. 

[Bilo]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

And Rees Mogg. 

I'm still gutted we've been denied the glorious spectacle of it happening to Gove. 

[Trav Le Bleu]

Reform: the party for people who think the Tory party aren't Tory enough.

[Dr The Singh]

14 minutes ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

Reform: the party for people who think the Tories party aren't BNP enough.

[FoxyPV]

3 hours ago, BenTheFox said:

Has anyone actually read Reform's manifesto or "contract with the people"?

 

It's a ghastly cocktail of unfunded tax cuts, austerity, dogwhistles and conspiracy theories. 

And US healthcare model

[leicsmac]

9 minutes ago, FoxyPV said:

And US healthcare model

But they're smart enough to dress it up as "France-style" to hide the slippery slope to it.

[Sampson]

 

[Dr The Singh]

8 hours ago, urban.spaceman said:

I'm gonna shock everyone here but I'm very right wing and I love it.

Your no Fatawu, thats his position 

[DennisNedry]

I'd also like to see a party with some of the economic policies of Labour (or even further left than that) with some of the social policies of the Conservatives (not the current mess though). 

 

I wonder how many voters are actually fully behind the vast majority of the ideology of the party they vote for. It's got to be low you'd think. It always seems to be voting for the best of a bad bunch of voting to keep the party you dislike more out, sadly.

[Daggers]

Bye bye Magic Grampy

 

 

[urban.spaceman]

Youthquake in Clacton.

 

 

Why do so many of them look like out of work celebrity lookalikes? On the bottom right you've got David Gilmour sitting behind Richard Hammond who's sitting behind Derek Jacobi. In the middle are the Mitchell brothers off Eastenders sitting next to Qyburn off Game of Thrones. 

 

[Jon the Hat]

13 hours ago, ealingfox said:

 

If you think Farage will do anything at all for the people of Clacton in office I'm afraid you may be disappointed. 

He doesn't need to though does he?  He can continue to blame everyone else until and unless he is actually in Government.  The point is the actual Government could and should address some of these underlying issues through both action and education to reduce the opportunity for Reform to talk shit.