Election prediction time

[Torquay Gunner]

1 hour ago, Raj said:

What's transgender and Harry Potter connection?

I could sign or mime it to you. 🤣

[Raj]

3 minutes ago, Torquay Gunner said:

I could sign or mime it to you. 🤣

mime please

[Torquay Gunner]

22 minutes ago, Raj said:

mime please

 How about this instead?  Maybe don’t watch if you think this offends you.  

[Raj]

4 minutes ago, Torquay Gunner said:

 How about this instead?  Maybe don’t watch if you think this offends you.  

Oh its abit like that is it??

Good on Jk Rowling!1...i mean how terribe of her!

 

[leicsmac]

37 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

I read something the other day saying you either play it the Cameron "try to keep them in the big tent as far as is practical" approach, or you call them on it a la Macron.  France might well be about to experiment with right wing leadership for a couple of years.  

You'd have thought the message regarding what happens when that kind of leadership takes power is pretty clear given the history of it, wouldn't you?

 

Hopefully another lesson paid in blood isn't needed.

[Sampson]

Love to see the Right eating itself. The two Kings of the populist right having petty arguments like school children on Twitter.

 

 

 

 

 

[Torquay Gunner]

Let them fight, ‘a la Harry Hill.

 

 

 

[Footballwipe]

I did not have Farage v Daily Mail on my election bingo card, tbh.

 

What will the Mail readers do, they'll be in agony over their favourite paper v their eternal and great leader

[Greg2607]

The Right  and Rightof center parties aren't used to having to share the same territory are they.... one of the reasons the Conservatives have been so successful over the years is because they have generally been the only part of merit on that side of the divide so get a larger share of the overall vote. 

 

If the Left and Left of Center parties had always coalesced into a single party, rather than having the various different shades of Left Wing views across multiple colours, then they would have seen more time in power over the years.  There is a reason that the Conservatives have been in power for 75% of the last 100 years.... it's because it's easier for them to get a lions share of the vote in a FPTP system... 

 

i'm particularly enjoying all of them howling at the moon about who is being honest or dishonest.. it's fun to watch for a change... 

[Sampson]

37 minutes ago, Footballwipe said:

I did not have Farage v Daily Mail on my election bingo card, tbh.

 

What will the Mail readers do, they'll be in agony over their favourite paper v their eternal and great leader

Tbh. I give it a year until the Mail start ragging on Ukrainian refugees and showing sympathies towards Putin. 

Edited 24 June by Sampson

[Sampson]

It’s escalating. 

 

 

[Facecloth]

So now Farage is defending the EU against Johnsons claim they are to blame over Ukraine 

[Sampson]

He’s gone into full meltdown mode now, calling Boris a Green.  Surely the venn diagram of people who support Farage and people who support Johnson is just a circle. Feel like he’s going after his own voters here.

 

Edited 24 June by Sampson

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, Sampson said:

He’s gone into full meltdown mode now, calling Boris a Green.  Surely the venn diagram of people who support Farage and people who support Johnson is just a circle. Feel like he’s going after his own voters here.

 

Not quite in all cases, which is why Farage made the "Green" remark as a distinction here.

 

Boris actually gave something of a shit about environmental protection and making policy for it, so you would think as did most of his supporters. Farage clearly doesn't, so likewise.

[Sampson]

15 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Not quite in all cases, which is why Farage made the "Green" remark as a distinction here.

 

Boris actually gave something of a shit about environmental protection and making policy for it, so you would think as did most of his supporters. Farage clearly doesn't, so likewise.

I will hazard a guess that the number of people who liked Boris solely because of green policies is close to zero though.

[Legend_in_blue]

 

[leicsmac]

12 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I will hazard a guess that the number of people who liked Boris solely because of green policies is close to zero though.

Yeah, agreed, so it's as you say.

[Greg2607]

I've just taken the time to watch a livestream of Nigel Farage at the event where he unveiled that poster.  

 

Now, first of all, I will categorically state that I don't share his views.  But..............

 

Of everyone in politics that makes it onto our screen, he is by far the most skilled orator.  Stephen Flynn is up there as a comparison,, but I can absolutely see why "the ordinary bloke" buys in to him.  He appeals to the disaffected and those that have previously thought "no one speaks for me".  His language is simple, he doesn't shy away from saying the wrong thing for fear of backlash, if anything, the backlash helps to fuel his popularity, as he is a master of sparring back and making those arguments look stupid. 

 

I think there could be a shock around how many seats reform get.   IF they fail to get many (and it's clear that Farage will become an MP in Clacton) then I could see a real push towards a new voting system coming in. In the eyes of the public, he will lend legitimacy to that debate. 

 

I really hope this doesn't build a platform for us to move towards a world where Farage becomes a future leader of the country. If you look at how facism is defined more recently it's this.... 

 

"a cult of the leader who promises national restoration in the face of humiliation brought on by supposed minorities and immigrants who are supposedly posing a threat to the character and the history of a nation" and that "The leader proposes that only he can solve it and all of his political opponents are enemies or traitors.

 

It sounds scarily familiar when you frame it in those terms... 

Edited 24 June by Greg2607

[Footballwipe]

4 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

I've just taken the time to watch a livestream of Nigel Farage at the event where he unveiled that poster.  

 

Now, first of all, I will categorically state that I don't share his views.  But..............

 

Of everyone in politics that makes it onto our screen, he is by far the most skilled orator.  Stephen Flynn is up there as a comparison,, but I can absolutely see why "the ordinary bloke" buys in to him.  He appeals to the disaffected and those that have previously thought "no one speaks for me".  His language is simple, he doesn't shy away from saying the wrong thing for fear of backlash, if anything, the backlash helps to fuel his popularity, as he is a master of sparring back and making those arguments look stupid. 

 

I think there could be a shock around how many seats reform get.   IF they fail to get many (and it's clear that Farage will become an MP in Clacton) then I could see a real push towards a new voting system coming in. In the eyes of the public, he will lend legitimacy to that debate. 

 

I really hope this doesn't build a platform for us to move towards a world where Farage becomes a future leader of the country. If you look at how facism is defined more decently it's this.... 

 

"a cult of the leader who promises national restoration in the face of humiliation brought on by supposed minorities and immigrants who are supposedly posing a threat to the character and the history of a nation" and that "The leader proposes that only he can solve it and all of his political opponents are enemies or traitors.

 

It sounds scarily familiar when you frame it in those terms... 

Similar to that American film from 1943 that was going round the other day (was it on here as well?) about spotting fascism. Start with populist nonsense and ratchet up as your popularity increases. You'll get away with more and more as people latch onto you.

 

I suspect there will be a fair few people who were just a bit disenfranchised with Britain being in the European Union who will now, years on, be stoutly pro-Russian and doing Farage's work for him on everything. Who knows where it'll end.

 

Agree though - he does it brilliantly and he knows exactly how to sucker these types in. There's money to be made, there's adulation to be taken and there's attention to be garnered. It's almost intriguing to see how far his cult of personality will go, and what, if anything, would topple it?

 

In some ways his greatest con is convincing the working and middle class that he's just like them or one of them. In reality he never has been, doesn't have their interests at heart. He's a user but he says the right things and activates that unhinged fear in the brains of so many.

 

In terms of seats, I've been fascinated by this. I read something that his voter demographic isn't split evenly enough to take seats, though who knows what this true figure is. Loads of us were complacent on Brexit night, and 17m said out. How many have really drunk the right-wing kool-aid? I think we'll be shocked at the # of votes, though seats will be very very minimal.

[Greg2607]

my favourite Farage fact, which i've only just learnt.... is that once the Brexit result was announced, he naturalised himself in Brussels based on his residency status... so he isn't a UK resident anymore. absolutely blinding grift! 

[leicsmac]

15 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

I've just taken the time to watch a livestream of Nigel Farage at the event where he unveiled that poster.  

 

Now, first of all, I will categorically state that I don't share his views.  But..............

 

Of everyone in politics that makes it onto our screen, he is by far the most skilled orator.  Stephen Flynn is up there as a comparison,, but I can absolutely see why "the ordinary bloke" buys in to him.  He appeals to the disaffected and those that have previously thought "no one speaks for me".  His language is simple, he doesn't shy away from saying the wrong thing for fear of backlash, if anything, the backlash helps to fuel his popularity, as he is a master of sparring back and making those arguments look stupid. 

 

I think there could be a shock around how many seats reform get.   IF they fail to get many (and it's clear that Farage will become an MP in Clacton) then I could see a real push towards a new voting system coming in. In the eyes of the public, he will lend legitimacy to that debate. 

 

I really hope this doesn't build a platform for us to move towards a world where Farage becomes a future leader of the country. If you look at how facism is defined more decently it's this.... 

 

"a cult of the leader who promises national restoration in the face of humiliation brought on by supposed minorities and immigrants who are supposedly posing a threat to the character and the history of a nation" and that "The leader proposes that only he can solve it and all of his political opponents are enemies or traitors.

 

It sounds scarily familiar when you frame it in those terms... 

Agree with all of this, and any sane person should fear where it leads.

[ajthefox]

1 hour ago, Greg2607 said:

I've just taken the time to watch a livestream of Nigel Farage at the event where he unveiled that poster.  

 

Now, first of all, I will categorically state that I don't share his views.  But..............

 

Of everyone in politics that makes it onto our screen, he is by far the most skilled orator.  Stephen Flynn is up there as a comparison,, but I can absolutely see why "the ordinary bloke" buys in to him.  He appeals to the disaffected and those that have previously thought "no one speaks for me".  His language is simple, he doesn't shy away from saying the wrong thing for fear of backlash, if anything, the backlash helps to fuel his popularity, as he is a master of sparring back and making those arguments look stupid. 

 

I think there could be a shock around how many seats reform get.   IF they fail to get many (and it's clear that Farage will become an MP in Clacton) then I could see a real push towards a new voting system coming in. In the eyes of the public, he will lend legitimacy to that debate. 

 

I really hope this doesn't build a platform for us to move towards a world where Farage becomes a future leader of the country. If you look at how facism is defined more recently it's this.... 

 

"a cult of the leader who promises national restoration in the face of humiliation brought on by supposed minorities and immigrants who are supposedly posing a threat to the character and the history of a nation" and that "The leader proposes that only he can solve it and all of his political opponents are enemies or traitors.

 

It sounds scarily familiar when you frame it in those terms... 

I don't think Farage wants that on any level. The bloke is a grifter and will be totally found out to be full of crap if he gets his seat because he would actually have to do something and not just make up stuff and hide beyond the smoke bombs he throws.

[kenny]

10 minutes ago, ajthefox said:

I don't think Farage wants that on any level. The bloke is a grifter and will be totally found out to be full of crap if he gets his seat because he would actually have to do something and not just make up stuff and hide beyond the smoke bombs he throws.

Worse. He will be an irrelevant back bencher not much more relevant than an independent MP.

 

Furthermore he will be bound by the code of conduct for MPs as well as all the other committees. Anyone that doesn't like him will report him for anything and everything.

[Sampson]

2 minutes ago, ajthefox said:

I don't think Farage wants that on any level. The bloke is a grifter and will be totally found out to be full of crap if he gets his seat because he would actually have to do something and not just make up stuff and hide beyond the smoke bombs he throws.

He did it as an MEP for years. I think he’ll love be an opposition MP in a small party where he can turn up to PMQs every week and make a loud noise but has zero actual governing responsibility tbh.

You think other populists like Nadine Dorris, Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees-Mogg actually care about their local communities and don’t already just delegate all the day to day MP stuff?

 

It’s easy if you’re a politics junkie to feel like it’s so obvious he’s just peddling a bunch of easy answers, but the truth I think you’d be surprised about just how high a proportion of the electorate don’t understand what an MP actually does, they don’t understand basic economics or even what things like inflation is or what taxes actually pay for or the difference between the public and private sector or what interest rates do, nor understand what organisations like the EU, NATO, the Bank of England, the IFS, the UN etc. actually are or do.

 

Things like “it’s the foreigners fault the NHS is on its knees” cut through because they’re extremely simple concepts to understand than “the IFS have said we’re going to have to pay more tax to fix the NHS”.
 

I think people who say “he’s just a niche grifter” severely underestimate the power over a large proportion of the electorate he has and the huge difference he’s already made from the sidelines. And also severely overestimate how much the general public is actually interested in/understands politics. 

[Sampson]

Just now, kenny said:

Worse. He will be an irrelevant back bencher not much more relevant than an independent MP.

 

Furthermore he will be bound by the code of conduct for MPs as well as all the other committees. Anyone that doesn't like him will report him for anything and everything.

And then he’ll be able to whip people up by saying “the establishment are out to get him” as he has successfully done for about 15 years.