leicsmac Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July (edited) 8 minutes ago, Bilo said: I can see this point of view, but in France we've seen the traditional mainstream parties fall by the wayside on left and right. Macron's party is effectively brand new itself and his government hasn't been a paragon of sanity and competence, plus its far-right is so well-established that the leadership is on its second generation Le Pen. I suspect that a Conservative Party going into a 2029 General Election with Farage or Braverman as leader with a Reform manifesto gets obliterated by anything but a woefully incompetent Labour government. Whenever Reform's policies and personalities have been subjected to even light scrutiny, they have absolutely crumbled. I hope you're right and I think if the world stays (relatively) stable, I think you will be. But five years is an awful lot of time for something to happen. Edit: I've said it before but I'll repeat here, a party with the ideology of Reform, whether Tory or otherwise, next time round will get either 0 seats or enough seats to shape policy. There will be no middle ground. Edited 3 July by leicsmac 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muzzy_no7 Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 2 hours ago, RobHawk said: I'm hoping they'll be the official opposition after Thursday. I urge anyone who's in a seat where it's worthwhile, please vote lib dem. Imagine the scenes when the torys come 3rd Clear labour majority with lib dem as the opposition would be disastrous. Need a strong opposition and I’m hoping that will be conservatives listening to the millions who vote Reform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg2607 Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 2 minutes ago, Muzzy_no7 said: Clear labour majority with lib dem as the opposition would be disastrous. Need a strong opposition and I’m hoping that will be conservatives listening to the millions who vote Reform. Why would that be disastrous? I appreciate it would be disastrous for the conservatives.... but why would it be disastrous for the Country? (by the way, I'm not being flippant here, genuinely interested in your reasoning) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muzzy_no7 Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 3 minutes ago, Greg2607 said: Why would that be disastrous? I appreciate it would be disastrous for the conservatives.... but why would it be disastrous for the Country? (by the way, I'm not being flippant here, genuinely interested in your reasoning) I just don’t believe the Lib Dem’s are a strong party and wouldn’t push Labour to be the best they can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 7 minutes ago, Muzzy_no7 said: I just don’t believe the Lib Dem’s are a strong party and wouldn’t push Labour to be the best they can be. I guess it comes down to whether or not one thinks an adversarial presence is needed to make someone do the right or best things. Difficult to say, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilo Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 18 minutes ago, Muzzy_no7 said: Clear labour majority with lib dem as the opposition would be disastrous. Need a strong opposition and I’m hoping that will be conservatives listening to the millions who vote Reform. Would it? I imagine the Lib Dems would take them to task on more than you'd think. Not least Brexit and our relationship with the EU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon the Hat Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 14 minutes ago, Greg2607 said: Why would that be disastrous? I appreciate it would be disastrous for the conservatives.... but why would it be disastrous for the Country? (by the way, I'm not being flippant here, genuinely interested in your reasoning) They have 15 MPS now, to be HM official opposition they would need 100+ new ones, so your opposition would be amateurs. Note necessarily a disaster, but certainly a risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg2607 Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July I certainly think it changes the focus of the conversation, but i'm not convinced that's a bad thing.... I guess it also depends what version of the conservative party remain after the Election.... They have a choice to make... move more to the right to try and snuff out reform or move back towards the centre to try to compete on a centrist platform. My suspicion is that they will look to the momentum of Reform and decide to go in that direction... I'm not sure that ends well for them or for the country.... obviously, I could well be wrong... time will tell I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg2607 Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 2 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said: They have 15 MPS now, to be HM official opposition they would need 100+ new ones, so your opposition would be amateurs. Note necessarily a disaster, but certainly a risk. potentially need 100+ seats... Depends on the size of the labour majority. I've seen plenty of polls suggesting that the 2nd largest party will have between 50-100 seats. I think the Lib Dems would be very vocal about social care and carers in general... i think they would be very vocal about the trading relationship with the EU and I suspect they will have a number of other socially focused issues to raise and drive.... It it's the Tories in opposition, it will be 5 years of Tax and immigration arguments... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon the Hat Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July Just now, Greg2607 said: potentially need 100+ seats... Depends on the size of the labour majority. I've seen plenty of polls suggesting that the 2nd largest party will have between 50-100 seats. I think the Lib Dems would be very vocal about social care and carers in general... i think they would be very vocal about the trading relationship with the EU and I suspect they will have a number of other socially focused issues to raise and drive.... It it's the Tories in opposition, it will be 5 years of Tax and immigration arguments... Possibly, but if they do represent the Reform type voters, there is a risk imo in them have no voice whatsoever in Parliament. We don't want to be the next France. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon the Hat Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July Actually quite disappointed the Lib Dems look to have blown a great opportunity here. No serious campaign really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July (edited) 18 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said: Possibly, but if they do represent the Reform type voters, there is a risk imo in them have no voice whatsoever in Parliament. We don't want to be the next France. I don’t know enough about French politics, but Alistair Campbell and Rory Stewart on the latest The Rest is Politics episode were arguing Macron isn’t a centrist in terms of trying to find middle ground, but a centrist in terms of more of a radical who espouses both radical left and radical right opinions and he’s been trying to play the hard left and hard right against each other by one moment allegedly saying something the hard left like and hard right hate like “France’s crimes in Algeria were abhorrent and we need to apologise for them” and then the next moment allegedly saying something like “immigration is awful” etc. something the hard right love but the hard left hate And that it’s massively backfired as a tactic and only given mainstream credence to those opinions and why would you vote for someone who agrees with half of these things, when you can vote for the real thing? Now these previously extremist opinions have been made by the supposed centrist establishment? Sunak has made a lot of the same mistakes in this campaign I think - gone on about immigration and the Rwanda scheme, which has only helped Reform and hindered the Tories, because he’s normalising the opinion into mainstream politics, but he’s never going to beat Farage on those kind of issues, so it only causes voters to jump from Tory to Reform. Edited 3 July by Sampson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 7 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said: Actually quite disappointed the Lib Dems look to have blown a great opportunity here. No serious campaign really. King of agree. They really should’ve just gone all in and campaigned as the pro-EU and/or the “we actually do need to raise taxes to sort out public services” party tbh. Both were serious gaps in the campaign that needed filling and it also would’ve pushed Labour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daggers Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 24 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said: They have 15 MPS now, to be HM official opposition they would need 100+ new ones, so your opposition would be amateurs. Note necessarily a disaster, but certainly a risk. How many “experienced” Tory MPs would you trust to run a bath without drowning, selling it to Frank Hestor or being discovered fvcking a farmyard animal in it? I think the country would benefit greatly from amateurs tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon the Hat Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 5 minutes ago, Daggers said: How many “experienced” Tory MPs would you trust to run a bath without drowning, selling it to Frank Hestor or being discovered fvcking a farmyard animal in it? I think the country would benefit greatly from amateurs tbh. They aren't all numpties. The lib dems are all a bit nice I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daggers Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 3 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said: They aren't all numpties. The lib dems are all a bit nice I think. Fourteen years and you’re still suffering from Stockholm syndrome 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Facecloth Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rain King Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July Anyone know who stocks fireworks at this time of year? Considering putting on a loud display in my Tory dominated area to celebrate, should the predicted battering come to pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonnieTodger Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July (edited) The Conservative Twitter account is surely the most embarrassing use of social media. It must have done so much more damage than good to their “campaign”. You’d hope so, anyway. Edited 3 July by RonnieTodger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daggers Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 5 minutes ago, RonnieTodger said: The Conservative Twitter account is surely the most embarrassing use of social media. It must have done so much more damage than good their “campaign”. You’d hope so, anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxile5 Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July What would be the rough estimate for timings on Thursday - when will results start to roll in? I'm incredibly keen to watch it unfold and just want to inform the other half what time I'll be lurching into bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EnderbyFox Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 9 minutes ago, foxile5 said: What would be the rough estimate for timings on Thursday - when will results start to roll in? I'm incredibly keen to watch it unfold and just want to inform the other half what time I'll be lurching into bed. This is handy. https://www.thetimes.com/article/5a88a813-7ac5-459a-a9e6-9f3ba442f420?shareToken=36fd168ef2695879187146d2956647a4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoxyPV Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 3 hours ago, Daggers said: How many “experienced” Tory MPs would you trust to run a bath without drowning, selling it to Frank Hestor or being discovered fvcking a farmyard animal in it? I think the country would benefit greatly from amateurs tbh. Or giving massive contracts to their mates....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmt Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July 3 hours ago, Sampson said: King of agree. They really should’ve just gone all in and campaigned as the pro-EU and/or the “we actually do need to raise taxes to sort out public services” party tbh. Both were serious gaps in the campaign that needed filling and it also would’ve pushed Labour. Tbf Green Party have done this and support hasn't gone up much, although appreciate most people see it as a wasted vote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobHawk Posted 3 July Share Posted 3 July I think the lib dems will hold labour to account on matters that actually matter rather than creating culture wars and trying to divide the country even further. The further away the torys are from power the better. I'd even like to see some grown up politics where parties work together more (it does happen but nowhere near enough) to do what's best for the people of this country. Ultimately, it looks as if labour will have such a big majority that they can do what they like. I don't think that's a bad thing but I think it's an opportunity for the politics of this country to vastly improve and learn from the shit show of the last 14 years. Put it this way, I'd much rather ed Davey and kier Starmer having a good discussion at pmqs than someone like suella up there, like a rabid dog with no teeth. It just wouldn't benefit anyone if that happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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