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filbertway

Betting Thread

By filbertway, in General Football and Sport

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Dan LCFC

Dan LCFC

Posted
Posted

I'm guilty of this but when people say "why do people bet on so and so" can someone please explain to me which leagues, or types of games aren't renowned for ****ing you? Backing West Ham to win away at Astra for example and losing for example isn't the Europa League's fault, it's West Ham naming an awful side.

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Donut

Donut

Posted
Posted

I'm guilty of this but when people say "why do people bet on so and so" can someone please explain to me which leagues, or types of games aren't renowned for ****ing you? Backing West Ham to win away at Astra for example and losing for example isn't the Europa League's fault, it's West Ham naming an awful side.

 

A few fairly random seeming strategies that work a bit for me are

 

1) Check the inplays. When a small team takes the lead very early against a big team, take the added value on the big team to turn the game around.

2) Bet on the "better" team to win a penalty shootout

3) When the home team is lower than the away team in the league table, this is a good recipe for a BTTS

4) The higher the level of football, the more professional it is, and less random (although there are still some very weird results, thats just football).

 

The randomness of the game makes it what it is though. Justhave to accept losses because thats football.

 

Id say totally ignore prices. Go with what you fancy. A 1/10 can be fantastic value IMO at times, but likewise, a 2/1 shot isnt necessarily a bad bet either

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ScouseFox

ScouseFox

Posted
Posted

yeah that bottom point's a good'un.

i know a few people who don't believe in coupons cos obviously they first and main thing you see on a coupon is a price and that plays on your mind straight away. they'd rather get the bbc site or the fixtures from the paper, choose a few they reckon might win/lose/draw and then back them regardless of prices, rather than looking through a coupon and finding some odds on or odds against shots to suit your stake.

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ScouseFox

ScouseFox

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Posted

yeah no right or wrong way, there's no way to guarantee a win every time and you'd probably be just as stumped if you genuinely tried to find a loser each time too. just whatever you want to do.

id rarely, if ever, back anything at less than about 1/4 or 1/5 cos my stakes/amount of selections barely make it worthwhile. if i had a tenner fourfold or something, the 1/8 shot thrown on the end would probably win me £90 instead of £80. rather just not take the chance cos it'd deffo be the one that cost me haha.

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Donut

Donut

Posted
Posted

On a coupon I always look for teams around evens and pick four.

Always a good little price.

Surely there is no right or wrong in your way of gambling? I will never stick a 1/10 in my coupon as I don't see the point but each to their ow.

 

Purely from the point of view where the odds are a mis representation of the real probabilities of the bet, this is what id call value.

 

To give a brief example, England were listed as 1/9 to beat Lithuania at Wembley, and i think i had 1/3 on them to win to nil.

 

Both very heavily odds on, but very good value in my opinion. Id have had the outright win at more like 1/25, and the win to nil longer too.

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Donut

Donut

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4/5 tomorrow night is good value v Switzerland.

 

Possibly, im just not totally convinced.

 

We are better than Switzerland no doubt, but you get the impression Switzerland will come here and want to win to cement 2nd.

 

Always that nagging doubt theyll shithouse a win or a draw, but the value on england double chance wouldnt be there.

 

A perfect example of going with what you feel though.

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Dan LCFC

Dan LCFC

Posted
Posted (edited)

A few fairly random seeming strategies that work a bit for me are

 

1) Check the inplays. When a small team takes the lead very early against a big team, take the added value on the big team to turn the game around.

2) Bet on the "better" team to win a penalty shootout

3) When the home team is lower than the away team in the league table, this is a good recipe for a BTTS

4) The higher the level of football, the more professional it is, and less random (although there are still some very weird results, thats just football).

 

The randomness of the game makes it what it is though. Justhave to accept losses because thats football.

 

Id say totally ignore prices. Go with what you fancy. A 1/10 can be fantastic value IMO at times, but likewise, a 2/1 shot isnt necessarily a bad bet either

 

Number one... was a great one towards the end of last season. Real Betis away at some dross towards the bottom, 1-0 down after 10 minutes and Betis, who were top by a mile, were 3/1 to win the game. Immediately threw a tenner on it and they were 1-4 up before the hour.

 

Haven't really thought of the penalties one before but it's true now that you mention it, you don't actually get many penalty upsets.

 

Number three I genuinely haven't ever considered. I'll look into that.

 

Number four I agree with as well but even then you get some horrors. I think football's getting harder to predict every season. It's great for the neutral but shite for the punter.

4/5 tomorrow night is good value v Switzerland.

 

Yeah I agree, I'm having it, we generally deliver in these kind of games.

 

Under 2.5 might be a shout too.

Edited by Dan LCFC
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Bet if you find value. Don't if you do not. Usually my own personal approach.

Value a very subjective thing of course.

Australia are big today at 8/11 to beat England(cricket) 2-0 up in series and a vastly superior ODI team. England resting a couple. Price suggests a 57% probability I make it closer to 70.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

The thing about teams being evens is the double chance is 8/11 on them not winning, so it's actually odds on that they don't win. Your best to not even look at the odds and just back teams you fancy.

If you don't care about odds you will get rather poor from gambling. It's like buying stuff and not caring how much it costs.

Edited by Guest
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

For people like most in here that bet relatively small stakes for fun then your better to back your instincts rather than follow the odds.

I know its just fun for a lot of people but I still think its best to try and arm yourself as best as possible to be profitable however much you are risking. 

 

I tried with a mate once when he said he'd backed Man United at 4/7 'cuz I think they'll win' - I asked what percentage chance of winning they have and he reckoned about 55% So I told him he would have needed 4/5 at least just to be getting a fair price. Blank expression and shoulders shrugged. No wonder bookies make a killing. 

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