Betting Thread

[Dan LCFC]

Completely forgot they were without Forestieri. That explains that result, sort of.

[J.Lisemore]

All it takes....

It takes an awful lot of luck too.

If all it took was 'a little pre match research' the bookies wouldn't be a multi billion pound industry.

Cmon... think about what you're saying.

 

Its all about giving yourself the best chance of winning isn't it? I rarely bet on English football myself because its too unpredictable. The bookies are billions in profit because of people whacking on aimless 10 team accumulators and their roulette machines etc. I used to be part of a betting group that made well over a million pounds, you know how we were so much in profit?... research and info.

 

Not everybody loses Col.

[Guest Col city fan]

Its all about giving yourself the best chance of winning isn't it? I rarely bet on English football myself because its too unpredictable. The bookies are billions in profit because of people whacking on aimless 10 team accumulators and their roulette machines etc. I used to be part of a betting group that made well over a million pounds, you know how we were so much in profit?... research and info.

Not everybody loses Col.

As soon as I start reading 'I used to be' I tend to switch off.

One of my best mates is a pro gambler. Not 'was', but is..here and now.

He's made his living on sports gambling since his mid 20s. He's now mid 40s.

He tends to steer away from the football almost completely...too unpredictable, instead betting on the nags (mainly on the flats). He does what you say. Researches. His gambling is his job and when myself and my other mates go out to work, he will stay in in his 'office' in front of TV screens, computers and will study 'form'.

He doesn't like to tip (in case it don't come in) and we rarely ask him for tips. That way, we stay good mates. Heres the rub......even HE will say a lot of what he does is down to luck. An horse might pull up. It might just not fancy it on a certain day. The jockey might have an headache. .. (are you saying you were SO clued up that you would know this?)

If what you are saying is true mate, I take my hat off to you. And of course, research is important.

My mate always says though. .Avoid the football. ..There are too many variables. Too many rubbish refs, too many sending offs, too many shock results. Too many games where a team will be on a run of great form, then simply just play pants on a given day.

But luck is important and remains important. A good example would be the recent Arsenal v Leicester game. Anyone lumping say on Leicester double chance at half time, would have had no idea that Simpson would get sent off for two minor indiscretions. They would have no idea that Wasa would jump into the Arsenal player after 94 minutes, and would have no idea that we would then go on to lose that game.

And of course, the biggest lucky punters of this season are the ones who are now cashing in on City to win the league at 5000/1. This wasn't about 'research'. Yes, we finished strongly at the end of last season but for anybody to have thought we would be where we are now...? That's luck, in terms of betting on it.

[howlinmadmurfdoc]

As soon as I start reading 'I used to be' I tend to switch off.

One of my best mates is a pro gambler. Not 'was', but is..here and now.

He's made his living on sports gambling since his mid 20s. He's now mid 40s.

He tends to steer away from the football almost completely...too unpredictable, instead betting on the nags (mainly on the flats). He does what you say. Researches. His gambling is his job and when myself and my other mates go out to work, he will stay in in his 'office' in front of TV screens, computers and will study 'form'.

He doesn't like to tip (in case it don't come in) and we rarely ask him for tips. That way, we stay good mates. Heres the rub......even HE will say a lot of what he does is down to luck. An horse might pull up. It might just not fancy it on a certain day. The jockey might have an headache. .. (are you saying you were SO clued up that you would know this?)

If what you are saying is true mate, I take my hat off to you. And of course, research is important.

My mate always says though. .Avoid the football. ..There are too many variables. Too many rubbish refs, too many sending offs, too many shock results. Too many games where a team will be on a run of great form, then simply just play pants on a given day.

But luck is important and remains important. A good example would be the recent Arsenal v Leicester game. Anyone lumping say on Leicester double chance at half time, would have had no idea that Simpson would get sent off for two minor indiscretions. They would have no idea that Wasa would jump into the Arsenal player after 94 minutes, and would have no idea that we would then go on to lose that game.

And of course, the biggest lucky punters of this season are the ones who are now cashing in on City to win the league at 5000/1. This wasn't about 'research'. Yes, we finished strongly at the end of last season but for anybody to have thought we would be where we are now...? That's luck, in terms of betting on it.

Hardly anyone makes anything long term from bookies, if you win too much they restrict your betting. If you lose they just encourage you to lose more.

[J.Lisemore]

As soon as I start reading 'I used to be' I tend to switch off.

One of my best mates is a pro gambler. Not 'was', but is..here and now.

He's made his living on sports gambling since his mid 20s. He's now mid 40s.

He tends to steer away from the football almost completely...too unpredictable, instead betting on the nags (mainly on the flats). He does what you say. Researches. His gambling is his job and when myself and my other mates go out to work, he will stay in in his 'office' in front of TV screens, computers and will study 'form'.

He doesn't like to tip (in case it don't come in) and we rarely ask him for tips. That way, we stay good mates. Heres the rub......even HE will say a lot of what he does is down to luck. An horse might pull up. It might just not fancy it on a certain day. The jockey might have an headache. .. (are you saying you were SO clued up that you would know this?)

If what you are saying is true mate, I take my hat off to you. And of course, research is important.

My mate always says though. .Avoid the football. ..There are too many variables. Too many rubbish refs, too many sending offs, too many shock results. Too many games where a team will be on a run of great form, then simply just play pants on a given day.

But luck is important and remains important. A good example would be the recent Arsenal v Leicester game. Anyone lumping say on Leicester double chance at half time, would have had no idea that Simpson would get sent off for two minor indiscretions. They would have no idea that Wasa would jump into the Arsenal player after 94 minutes, and would have no idea that we would then go on to lose that game.

And of course, the biggest lucky punters of this season are the ones who are now cashing in on City to win the league at 5000/1. This wasn't about 'research'. Yes, we finished strongly at the end of last season but for anybody to have thought we would be where we are now...? That's luck, in terms of betting on it.

 

Out of curiosity, how much is your mate in profit?

 

That's it thought isn't it, when you bet on mainstream football such as the Leicester v Arsenal game, we all know its a fair game that could go either way and the bookies have priced it up correctly. As a group we'd have contacts that knew major info on obscure European games in the likes of Finland, Sweden and so on. The bookies would have no idea how to price these games up ,which means.... ££££.

 

Totally up to you whether you believe what I say is true, but this is how I've made my money.

[J.Lisemore]

Hardly anyone makes anything long term from bookies, if you win too much they restrict your betting. If you lose they just encourage you to lose more.

 

There is a way around that, although it involves a lot of trust and effort.

[Dan LCFC]

Its all about giving yourself the best chance of winning isn't it? I rarely bet on English football myself because its too unpredictable. The bookies are billions in profit because of people whacking on aimless 10 team accumulators and their roulette machines etc. I used to be part of a betting group that made well over a million pounds, you know how we were so much in profit?... research and info.

 

Not everybody loses Col.

 

There is a luck element and I'm absolutely sure of that. I'm either researching very badly or I'm just unlucky, but there is so little logic to most results in my experience and it's not like I'm backing solely English games either.

[Dan LCFC]

Out of curiosity, how much is your mate in profit?

 

That's it thought isn't it, when you bet on mainstream football such as the Leicester v Arsenal game, we all know its a fair game that could go either way and the bookies have priced it up correctly. As a group we'd have contacts that knew major info on obscure European games in the likes of Finland, Sweden and so on. The bookies would have no idea how to price these games up ,which means.... ££££.

 

Totally up to you whether you believe what I say is true, but this is how I've made my money.

 

Out of interest, you say you used to do it...

 

Why don't you anymore?

[Guest Col city fan]

There is a luck element and I'm absolutely sure of that. I'm either researching very badly or I'm just unlucky, but there is so little logic to most results in my experience and it's not like I'm backing solely English games either.

Put it this way Dan. Before Christmas you had your best ever run didn't you? I'm sure I saw you posting on here for a number of weeks actually surprised at your good fortune?

Since 2016 it's all gone Pete Tong...

Let me ask you this...are you doing ANYTHING differently this year? If not, why we're you consistently winning a few months ago and now cannot? Luck?

[Soar Fox]

Why if people think it's all about luck in betting why give the bookies a chance to take your money.

I used to bet once, twice a week never no more than £10 I hardly ever won. I got so fed up of losing and wasting my money I stopped, not because I couldn't afford it but because the enjoyment had gone for me.

If it's all about luck don't bother giving your money away, and if you do carry on betting when you are convinced it's all luck then more fool you for carrying on.

[ScouseFox]

Why if people think it's all about luck in betting why give the bookies a chance to take your money.

I used to bet once, twice a week never no more than £10 I hardly ever won. I got so fed up of losing and wasting my money I stopped, not because I couldn't afford it but because the enjoyment had gone for me.

If it's all about luck don't bother giving your money away, and if you do carry on betting when you are convinced it's all luck then more fool you for carrying on.

 

i still enjoy it even when i lose. obviously there's nothing enjoyable about having £10 then having £0 a few hours later, but i still enjoy the process of it. the chat about form, about what you're going to back, the planning, convincing yourself you've found amazing value, you've backed a certain winner, planning what you're going to do with the £300 you're obviously going to win, watching a horse/a footy team take the lead, one selection's a winner, the next one goes in front, you're gonna be bloody rich this game's easy! oh wait, hold on, arsenal are losing at home to swansea and that horse that was 6 lengths clear has fallen at the last?! oighabviusbvasgb

 

 

but like stevie g says we go again we go to norwich we win the league etc. repeat. 

 

i could never do it "professionally" or ever stake enough to make it a genuine concern if i lost (but therefore never be able to retire if i won) but that's what makes it fun. i only bet on stuff i'd probably have a slight but not full interest in anyway to make that more enjoyable. aka saturday, city aren't playing at 3pm but you're watching soccer saturday/in the pub/there's a stream for a random premier league game. just makes it more fun if you've got someone or a few teams to cheer on for them two hours than if you're just sat around waiting for our game to start later. 

[HowardsBulletHeader]

In other news, we are 1/125 with Ladbrokes to finish in the top 4. WOW.

[HowardsBulletHeader]

Personally Dan/Col, I have had a rough time with betting this year, so I have reformed what I do.

I believe in this thread I actually said something along the lines of "the enjoyment for me is backing an acca that wins 250 quid", but that changed for me this year when I was losing so regularly due to the likelihood of the larger teams screwing up being more than ever. Now don't get me wrong, I only bet £5 per bet, never any more so that if I lose then consistently it never harms me too badly. But to be honest, I'd always eventually get something decent back, like a £200+ acca rolls in. This season it never happened and it clicked, stop betting on daft leagues that you know nothing about and stop putting so many teams in.

This made me turn to trebles, occasionally if value is light, four folds. I have won so much more regularly since mid Jan than I ever have before. Sure my £5 doesn't turn into anything huge like it used to fairly irregularly and the same buzz isn't there, but it does turn into £25-£80 more regularly and its still enjoyable to win, no matter the amount. That's what I've found.

It is partly luck, but it isn't as much luck as you seemingly both attribute to it. You want to find value, there's no value in backing Man City at 2/11 to beat Villa and that's where your risk comes in. It's not unlucky if Man City go on to lose, personally I think that's a stupid bet as there's no value in such an odds on favourite and there's no "luck" element there. I backed Wigan at 8/11 at the weekend, at home, playoff places in L1, playing Peterborough who had lost 5 on the spin, Wigan take the lead after 75 mins, concede after 81 & it finishes 1-1. You could say it's bad luck, but really it is just the nature of football.

[Guest Col city fan]

Why if people think it's all about luck in betting why give the bookies a chance to take your money.

I used to bet once, twice a week never no more than £10 I hardly ever won. I got so fed up of losing and wasting my money I stopped, not because I couldn't afford it but because the enjoyment had gone for me.

If it's all about luck don't bother giving your money away, and if you do carry on betting when you are convinced it's all luck then more fool you for carrying on.

I think it's great you can do that mate. As in, just stop, end of.

I find that very hard to do. I guess I'm addicted. The way I manage it is to bet small. Then, if I win, I can have another go, if I lose, I'm not overly bothered. Forget wins for me. The times, given a 50 50 scenario, I bet on the team that then loses one nil or summat, is laughable. I nearly always seem to pick the wrong team after about 60 mins or so.

The only bet I'm winning on currently is both teams NOT to score. That's come in pretty often recently, the problem with that are the odds are so small.

[filbertway]

I think it's great you can do that mate. As in, just stop, end of.

I find that very hard to do. I guess I'm addicted. The way I manage it is to bet small. Then, if I win, I can have another go, if I lose, I'm not overly bothered. Forget wins for me. The times, given a 50 50 scenario, I bet on the team that then loses one nil or summat, is laughable. I nearly always seem to pick the wrong team after about 60 mins or so.

The only bet I'm winning on currently is both teams NOT to score. That's come in pretty often recently, the problem with that are the odds are so small.

 

Tried the o1.5 goals markets? 

 

Not terrific odds, but they must come in around 60-65% of the time. Pick 2 or 3 and you've got a decent evens to 2/1 shot.

[matty98]

Our U21s are at evens keeping an eye out for the line up at 6

[J.Lisemore]

Out of interest, you say you used to do it...

 

Why don't you anymore?

 

Group leader went off the rails, got lazy and broke away from the group. For one reason or another, the group folded. 

 

This is a guy that paid his car off in one day. I hope for his sake he's stopped it now because he's already minted.

[Guest Col city fan]

again..this evening a great example. I've had Cesena to beat Salernitana and both teams to score.

1-1 at half time, with 2 penalties (one for each side) which just werent penalties.... AND Cesena already down to 10 men.

In some other random Romanian game (which fortunately I haven't bet on), one of the teams has had FOUR red cards. Thats four, for the same team, in the same game!!

What the fook are the refs doing with red cards at the moment.......?

[Unabomber]

again..this evening a great example. I've had Cesena to beat Salernitana and both teams to score.

 

why?

[Guest Col city fan]

why?

 

Research...Cesena to go third, Salernitana 2nd from bottom and not won away from home all season.

Red card has fooked it up again..ended  1-1

 

Edit...Salernitana win in the 94th minute to secure their first away win all season...you couldn't make it up...

Edited 7 March 2016 by Col city fan

[Mayofox]

Have you ever met a poor bookie? My wife's uncle had his own betting shop here in Ireland, and he was a millionaire.

 

When I was a young 'un (just a while back) a few of us from work would nip out at lunchtime to put £5/10 on the nags, ring up later for the result, and it was fun. When we were going daily and putting of £50  (and more), and we weren't very good, I stopped, just had to, when I calculated I was down around £2000. That would have been in less than a year,  I just had to write it off and learn a hard lesson.

 

Having said that, I went into Paddy Power last year and had €100 at 40/1 on us finishing in the top 5. ( I only bet on dead certs now!!)

[HowardsBulletHeader]

Tomorrow:

Burnley

Cardiff

Grimsby

Real Madrid

[Danno]

Burnley, Cardiff, Burton and Ipswich tomorrow?

[Brenfox]

Research...Cesena to go third, Salernitana 2nd from bottom and not won away from home all season.

Red card has fooked it up again..ended 1-1

Edit...Salernitana win in the 94th minute to secure their first away win all season...you couldn't make it up...

They had something like 35 shots as well. Incredible.

[duk3nuk3m]

Reading seem too big tonight away at Huddersfield @ 3/1. Might go for an Ipswich, Reading and Burton treble tonight.

 

Even Reading +1 is 4/5!

Edited 8 March 2016 by duk3nuk3m