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filbertway

Betting Thread

By filbertway, in General Football and Sport

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Wycombe Fox

Wycombe Fox

Posted
Posted

Today's Aintree bets;

2.00 General Miller 12/1 WON

2.35 Burton Point 11/4

3.10 Kalahari King 7/2

3.45 Diablo 16/1

4.20 Western Leader 4/1

10p E/W Lucky 31 pays £4000.79

£1 E/W Accumulator pays £18727.51

Albertas Run 15/2

£1 E/W pays £11.00

That's a good start!!

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Wycombe Fox

Wycombe Fox

Posted
Posted

Today's Aintree bets;

2.00 General Miller 12/1 WON

2.35 Burton Point 11/4 WON

3.10 Kalahari King 7/2

3.45 Diablo 16/1

4.20 Western Leader 4/1

10p E/W Lucky 31 pays £4000.79

£1 E/W Accumulator pays £18727.51

Albertas Run 15/2

£1 E/W pays £11.00

:o

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Wycombe Fox

Wycombe Fox

Posted
Posted (edited)

Today's Aintree bets;

2.00 General Miller 12/1 WON

2.35 Burton Point 11/4 WON

3.10 Kalahari King 7/2 FELL

3.45 Diablo 16/1

4.20 Western Leader 4/1

10p E/W Lucky 31 pays £736.85 revised maximum return

£1 E/W Accumulator pays £0.00 because Kalahari King fell, the stupid ****

Albertas Run 15/2 WON

£1 E/W pays £11.00

Could still be a decent day!

Edited by Isle of Wight Fox
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Wycombe Fox

Wycombe Fox

Posted
Posted (edited)

Today's Aintree bets;

2.00 General Miller 12/1 WON

2.35 Burton Point 11/4 WON

3.10 Kalahari King 7/2 FELL

3.45 Diablo 16/1 STILL NOT FINISHED

4.20 Western Leader 4/1

10p E/W Lucky 31 pays £not a lot!

£1 E/W Accumulator pays £bugger all!

Albertas Run 15/2 WON

£1 E/W pays £11.00

Oh well - it all started so well. Should cover my costs.

Edited by Isle of Wight Fox
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Matt

Matt

Posted
Posted

>_< Normally always bet on Albertas Run, but Forpadydeplasterer just edged my support so went for Pady E/W, Oh well didn't lose anything but if only i'd bet on both and Albertas Run would have been a hero for me once again.

Great Horse.

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Salieri

Salieri

Posted
Posted

Any tips for the Grand National?

Ive bet on Tony McCoy religiously for the last god knows how many years so will have to put a bit on his horse ('Don't push it' i think). The year i don't back him will be the year he wins it!

Any other tips appreciated, particularly for a good (outsider) E/W bet?

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dandannieldanok

dandannieldanok

Posted
Posted

Any tips for the Grand National?

Ive bet on Tony McCoy religiously for the last god knows how many years so will have to put a bit on his horse ('Don't push it' i think). The year i don't back him will be the year he wins it!

Any other tips appreciated, particularly for a good (outsider) E/W bet?

Anything under 11 stone, my four are:

The Package (14/1) - the one I'd tip

Snowy Morning (16/1)

Eric's Charm (40/1)

Piraya (100/1)

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Leicfox

Leicfox

Posted
Posted (edited)

7 stats which may help narrow down the field .

1- Although usually the weight limit is 11:00 and under , it looks like there will be no horses running from out of the Handicap again this year so if MADISON DU BERLAIS [11:10] stands his ground i would consider ALL those under him and MON MOME [only RED RUM has won back-to-back wins since the war]

2- Eliminate those who have not shown any winning form at 3m+ - a fairly obvious statement imo.

3- Ignore those who have not ran for 50 days - recent racecourse fitness appears to be vital.

4- Ignore those who have ran 3 times or under this season or over 6. - Those in between are usually the ones who have been specifically aimed at the race.

5- Must be aged between 8-12 - you have to go back to 1940 for a 7yo winner and 1923 for a teenage victor

6- Eliminate all those who have fallen MORE than twice in their career - yes Mon Mome unseated his rider a few times in his career but IN GENERAL you need a safe conveyance .

7- Stick to those around 33/1 or Under in the market , ON THE DAY .

Here we go and despite last years 100/1 winner , overall it pays to stick to those who will start 33/1 or under so with that in mind and wary that a few will contract i'll keep those at 40's in but the rest are out -

MADISON DU BERLAIS [also top weight of 11:10 ] , JOE LIVELY , MADE IN TAIPAN , NOZIC , PABLO DU CHARMIL , BEAT THE BOYS , PRIESTS LEAP , ELLERSLIE GEORGE , ERIC'S CHARM , CONNA CASTLE , BALLYFITZ , OLLIE MAGERN , PIRAYA , CERIUM , PALYPSO DE CREEK , FLINTOFF and ROYAL ROSA .

Next is AGE - TRICKY TRICKSTER [7] and THE PACKAGE [7] go out .

Weight and last years winner - MON MOME .

50 Day trend [ i'm including those on 49 as well ] - VIC VENTURI [49] , BLACK APPALACHI [49] , DREAM ALLIANCE [49] , STATE OF PLAY [133] , MALJIMAR [120] and IRISH RAPTOR [126] .

Of those left who have ran less than 3 times but more than 6 - COMPLY OR DIE and CHARACTER BUILDING .

12 remaining and now to remove those who have not won at least 3m -

BALLYHOLLAND [ won ptp's at 3m but not under NH rules ]

So down to 11 and now it's the one's who have fallen/unseated more than twice in their career - CLOUDY LANE [2xF , 2x U] .

So i've reduced the field to 10 and exhusted all my trends so with the going currently G/S and it looking like being a warm , sunny day on Saturday the mud-larks will be disadvantaged so SNOWY MORNING [ 7/8 wins under rules on Soft/Heavy ] , BIG FELLA THANKS [ 4/5 on SOft/Heavy] , KING JOHNS CASTLE [ 4/4 on Yldg/Soft + Soft] , ARBOUR SUPREME [3/4 Soft / Heavy ]

DON'T PUSH IT might have just squeaked it [ 4/7 on Soft ] but his win on supposed Good ground at Newbury was run 23+ secs above standard.

MY WILL [5/8 on Soft/Heavy] was another who might have got by but his last win was back in 2006 and that was a slow run race , 34 secs over standard despite it being officially G/S .

Thats me down to a manageable 4 and it's an interesting fact that the past 10 winners had all won a Listed or Graded Chase in their career .

BACKSTAGE has not won at either level and adde to the fact he has only ran 7 times under rules over Fences and 26f is the furthest he's tackled i'm passing him over , esp as he's only had 2 runs since the 28th of August.

So here's my 3 aginst the field -

NICHE MARKET - 9yo who has won a Listed Chase , albeit back in '08 , but won the Irish National in '09 .

He has ran 5 times this season , 3rd to DENMAN in the Hennessy the best run imo this season .

Followed that up by floundering in the mud in the Mandarin but was only beaten a Sh-Hd in the Aon Chase .

Disappointed at Cheltenham LTO but thats no worry for me here.

He has no experience of the big fences which is a negative but i'll have a nibble at 18's.

CAN'T BUY TIME may show that AP has picked the wrong one , he's a decent 3 miler who has won 3/5 on Good ground.

A win in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham shows a bit of Class .

He fell at the 18th last year when only a 7yo but hopefully he''l be a bit more wary of whats ahead this year and at 33's he's certainly worth an EW bet to be placed in the first 5.

Now here's the one who i really give a decent chance to [ if he gets the luck ] HELLO BUD won the Scottish National [G3] in '09 on Good ground and is only rated 1lb higher here .

An out-and-out stayer who has won 7 times from 23f to 33f inc twice onG/S , once on GD [scot Nat] and once on G/F so the current ground is not a problem.

4 of his 6 runs this season have been in Listed/Graded company and apart from the first and last outings were on ground a bit Softer than he would have preferred.

Even better is the fact that he has experienced the National fences [ 5th in this season's Becher Chase]

At a general 40/1 to place in the 1st 5 he looks a great bet providing he avoids trouble on the 1st circuit .

Edited by Leicfox
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ramboacdc

ramboacdc

Posted
Posted

i work at coral so here are my tips for the national.

Mon Mome, cant buy time, dont push it and if you fancy a cheeky outsider nozic

scottish national put your life savings on denman EW. if he doesnt win by half the racecourse, he will finish 2nd.

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