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filbertway

Betting Thread

By filbertway, in General Football and Sport

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The People's Hero

The People's Hero

Posted
Posted

What's this point system you do mate?

It enables me to keep track of profit/loss.

It also enables me to easily express my confidence in a selection.

Thirdly, it enables me to stick to a staking plan (mine is straightforward, but there are many complicated variations)

If I stake 1 point at 10/1 and the horse wins, the return is 11points (stake plus 10 winnings)

If I stake 5 points at 10/1 and the horse wins, the return is 55 points (stake plus 50 winnings)

The stake is also deducted from P/L and the returns are added to the P/L.

10 points stake would be about my most confident, which for me might amount to £25 (although I'd very very rarely risk that on any race/event)

1 points stake around £2.50.

In truth, most of my stakes are 1pt / 2 pt win or 1pt e/w.

If you were wealthier or liked the risk, your points system would be exactly the same, but 1pt might be £50 say.

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The People's Hero

The People's Hero

Posted
Posted

2.40 Musselburgh

ANY GIVEN MOMENT 12/1 e/w

1 point.

I put £5 e/w on this, forgot about it, then wondered why my account balance was £50 up! Thanks very much for the tip!

You are more than welcome.

I don't want to teach you to suck eggs, but take some of that out and buy you (or yours) something nice.

As a slight word of warning, don't just follow me blind. My P/L is good currently, but do take a look at each selection and make sure you fancy it yourself.

Additionally I only back if I get the right price. If I back something at 10/1 upwards, its because I consider it a value bet, if I put it up at 12/1 and when you check its 6/1, I'd steer clear.

Just my tuppence and certainly don't want to patronise or offend.

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Soar Fox

Soar Fox

Posted
Posted

It enables me to keep track of profit/loss.

It also enables me to easily express my confidence in a selection.

Thirdly, it enables me to stick to a staking plan (mine is straightforward, but there are many complicated variations)

If I stake 1 point at 10/1 and the horse wins, the return is 11points (stake plus 10 winnings)

If I stake 5 points at 10/1 and the horse wins, the return is 55 points (stake plus 50 winnings)

The stake is also deducted from P/L and the returns are added to the P/L.

10 points stake would be about my most confident, which for me might amount to £25 (although I'd very very rarely risk that on any race/event)

1 points stake around £2.50.

In truth, most of my stakes are 1pt / 2 pt win or 1pt e/w.

If you were wealthier or liked the risk, your points system would be exactly the same, but 1pt might be £50 say.

Ah get you. I might start doing something similar now I'm betting more on horses than football.

What do you think of Jack the gent 15.15 @ leicester?

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Lamby

Lamby

Posted
Posted

1.55 Chepstow- ALWAYS BOLD. Backed it at 6/1 but it carries on drifting i'd leave alone. Stepping up in trip so that could go either way with it

Mauricetheathlete seems a better shot at 9/2 tbh.

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Walker

Walker

Posted
Posted

Mauricetheathlete seems a better shot at 9/2 tbh.

Was well beaten over c/d last time out, but if you follow the market then that has an obvious chance.

Only reason I think Always Bold will run a decent race is it stayed on over 2m4f in its last race, big gamble though in reality

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The People's Hero

The People's Hero

Posted
Posted (edited)

I've doubled Marvellino and Dare to Endeavour in a small stake double too. The double is 30.5/1 and I have staked 1pt e/w.

As for your race at Leics, I'll take a look. At Leicester I always want to see a C&D win under the belt.

Edited by The People's Hero
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The People's Hero

The People's Hero

Posted
Posted

3.15 at Leicester.

Amuse Me is the only runner with a C&D win.

Otherwise, everything else about it doesn't warrant much interest however.

Rouge et Blanc should take this, but I might be inclined to have a little e/w dabble on Amuse Me. It's tissue price was 20/1. You might get more than that now.

In all honesty, I try to be selective about my picks - and I'd leave this race alone.

As for your pick though, as you asked, I can't see it winning, but I've been wrong many times before. Might run in to a place?

If you're going to back it (is your name Jack?) I'd advise an e/w go.

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The People's Hero

The People's Hero

Posted
Posted

1.55 at Chepstow - LAFLAMMEDEGLORIE would be my pick. Doesn't really warrant a write up. IMO its the just favourite.

An interesting runner though is Vaughan's runner, ridden by Johnson (a great jockey IMO) and available at upwards of 20/1.

If I was having a bet (which I'm not). PURE ANTICIPATION would be my e/w pick. (20/1 with Skybet currently).

By the way, I'm no oracle, so my opinion is no more valid than anyone else's. Just my views.

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The People's Hero

The People's Hero

Posted
Posted

Not run since 15th Feb 2012, will be off the pace imo

Its a fair point and why I'm not backing it at the price, but I do think it will win.

In my opinion, its the best horse there by a margin (one other is not far off).

If it runs anything like to its ability here, and the going should present no issues, then it should win.

But like I say, I'm keeping my money in my pocket and will watch with interest.

Good luck.

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The People's Hero

The People's Hero

Posted
Posted (edited)

Was well beaten over c/d last time out, but if you follow the market then that has an obvious chance.

Only reason I think Always Bold will run a decent race is it stayed on over 2m4f in its last race, big gamble though in reality

I don't think Always Bold is a bad shout. I'm siding with the fave, but this has every chance.

In fact, just for fun, I'm going

1st FAVE

2nd Always Bold

Straight forecast.

Edited by The People's Hero
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The People's Hero

The People's Hero

Posted
Posted

I might start doing something similar now I'm betting more on horses than football.

It will work just as well with football, just state your stake and your odds and keep a running PL.

You don't have to do it in a thread. In fact, me doing so is probably winding people up, but its somewhere easy for me to keep it.

I might start a new thread so most of you don't need to read it all the time.

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The People's Hero

The People's Hero

Posted
Posted (edited)

I await the full result of the 1.55 but it does look like Lamby's lack of faith in the favourite was accurate.

Well done Lamby.

Be interesting to see how that runs NTO

EDIT: ADDED RESULT.

1st6 Mauricetheathlete (IRE)7/22nd9 Always Bold (IRE)13/23rd3 Air Force One (GER)25/1

Well done with both selections. 1st and 2nd between you.

Edited by The People's Hero
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