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filbertway

Betting Thread

By filbertway, in General Football and Sport

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tartanowl

tartanowl

Posted
Posted

They'll go down like a lead zeppelin.

Rumour has it their entire wage budget for next season is to be trimmed towards £2 million and its a big reason why McCall turned them down to stay at Motherwell. They are well and truly in the brown stuff financially. League 1 mid table mediocrity beckons next season and I can see them being down there a good few more years yet.

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Posted
Posted

Chopin £5 ew 10/1 in the Derby. Money back if Dawn Approach wins.

Battle Of Marengo £2 ew 8/1 in the Derby.

 

Just won £40 on a scratchcard so will stick £11 of it on a silly Epsom 50p ew Yankee

Riverboat Springs 5/1, Gandalak 8/1, Chamonix 33/1, Ocovango 9/1.

Pays £13,697.12

 

England to beat Brazil £5 @ 22/5

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purpleronnie

purpleronnie

Posted
Posted

Chopin £5 ew 10/1 in the Derby. Money back if Dawn Approach wins.

Battle Of Marengo £2 ew 8/1 in the Derby.

 

Just won £40 on a scratchcard so will stick £11 of it on a silly Epsom 50p ew Yankee

Riverboat Springs 5/1, Gandalak 8/1, Chamonix 33/1, Ocovango 9/1.

Pays £13,697.12

 

England to beat Brazil £5 @ 22/5

whoa!

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Matt

Matt

Posted
Posted (edited)

Dawn Approach.

 

What a disappointment.

 

Another big favourite loses, albeit doubters about the trip, they were right.

 

I'm got to stop backing big favourites! Pathetic.

Edited by Matt
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Matt

Matt

Posted
Posted (edited)

Whilst on my latest rant when it comes to betting, betting on favourites and them failing consistantly, does anyone know the ratio/success rate of favourites winning/to not winning?

 

I'm thinking it has to be less than 50%, recently it seems that way anyway.

 

I'm sure I was told 2nd favourite actually have a better success rate than favourites.

 

Tempted to go down the route of laying favourites tbh! lol Although i've never quite got my head around lay betting I see it as a bigger risk of losing more money than winning more, like you stand the chance of losing £10 for the sake of winning £2 (Obviously depending on the various different odds), but in recent weeks i'd certainly be up more than I down if I were laying favourites, certainly short priced favourites.

Edited by Matt
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leicesterisme

leicesterisme

Posted
Posted (edited)

Whilst on my latest rant when it comes to betting, betting on favourites and them failing consistantly, does anyone know the ratio/success rate of favourites winning/to not winning?

 

I'm thinking it has to be less than 50%, recently it seems that way anyway.

 

I'm sure I was told 2nd favourite actually have a better success rate than favourites.

 

Tempted to go down the route of laying favourites tbh! lol Although i've never quite got my head around lay betting I see it as a bigger risk of losing more money than winning more, like you stand the chance of losing £10 for the sake of winning £2 (Obviously depending on the various different odds), but in recent weeks i'd certainly be up more than I down if I were laying favourites, certainly short priced favourites.

 

 

I layed 2 very short price favourites earlier. One at Doncaster, Ian's Dream at 2/7 and the other at Lingfield, Blhadawa at 2/5.

 

I layed Ian's Dream aswell at Leicester the other week at Leicester at 1/8  lol

 

It's true, I've certainly made a lot more money laying horses than I have backing them, that's for sure!

Edited by leicesterisme
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adam1

adam1

Posted
Posted

I know I know, fool and his money are soon parted. 

 

 

£50 E/W on Dawn Approach.

 

 

Dawn Approach.

 

What a disappointment.

 

Another big favourite loses, albeit doubters about the trip, they were right.

 

I'm got to stop backing big favourites! Pathetic.

 

I think your comments regarding the england bet should apply to those who backed Dawn Approach. Do any of you understand the notion of value when placing a bet??? MASSIVE MASSIVE PROBLEMS. This horse was never going to finish in the places  - and the shit excuses of how the horse was lit up - bollocks, it would never finish in the places. It cannot go the distance. It is a miler, 1m2f at most.

 

I backed three horses. They finished 1st, 2nd, and.... 3rd. Should have put more on the tricast though.

 

 

With regards to favourites winning - between 2008 and 2010 in national hunt racing the clear fave wins about 35% of the time. To turn that into a profit the favourites need to be priced at 15/8 or bigger. At 15/8 based on £1 stakes its a return of £100.63p to £100 staked. Which isn't a lot. What you also have to take into account that a considerable number of favourites are short prices. Those favourites priced 10/11 or lower (odds on) won 58.6% of the time in the same period. At a 58.6% strike rate, it appears that it could be a profit - actually it is not. Based on the results in the study period you would be losing £6.80 per £100 staked.

 

With regards to flat racing (more competitive), same study period, for 10/11 or shorter it is 56.9% strike rate, which is based on the results in that period a £7.20 loss per £100 staked. Favourites, no matter what the price won 32.9% of races. To break even you need a price bigger than 2/1 each time. That doesn't happen.

 

 

All in all backing favourites is a mugs game. :thumbup:

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ScouseFox

ScouseFox

Posted
Posted

Sociedad/Atletico double @ 15/2 sorted me out. Thank you Diego Costa. 


ps People who back favourites just because they're favourites deserve to lose. Back a horse (or any selection) that you think is going to win, not that the market and bookies "say" will win. 

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Posted
Posted

I think your comments regarding the england bet should apply to those who backed Dawn Approach. Do any of you understand the notion of value when placing a bet??? MASSIVE MASSIVE PROBLEMS. This horse was never going to finish in the places  - and the shit excuses of how the horse was lit up - bollocks, it would never finish in the places. It cannot go the distance. It is a miler, 1m2f at most.

 

I backed three horses. They finished 1st, 2nd, and.... 3rd. Should have put more on the tricast though.

 

 

With regards to favourites winning - between 2008 and 2010 in national hunt racing the clear fave wins about 35% of the time. To turn that into a profit the favourites need to be priced at 15/8 or bigger. At 15/8 based on £1 stakes its a return of £100.63p to £100 staked. Which isn't a lot. What you also have to take into account that a considerable number of favourites are short prices. Those favourites priced 10/11 or lower (odds on) won 58.6% of the time in the same period. At a 58.6% strike rate, it appears that it could be a profit - actually it is not. Based on the results in the study period you would be losing £6.80 per £100 staked.

 

With regards to flat racing (more competitive), same study period, for 10/11 or shorter it is 56.9% strike rate, which is based on the results in that period a £7.20 loss per £100 staked. Favourites, no matter what the price won 32.9% of races. To break even you need a price bigger than 2/1 each time. That doesn't happen.

 

 

All in all backing favourites is a mugs game. :thumbup:

 

Good post. Also the reason bookies offer 'enhanced odds' on these so called dead certs, to entice the casual punter to back.it. Doesn't always work though as Corals were offering Sprinter Sacre at evens i think during Cheltenham whilst every one else was 1/4 ish. They lost a significant 7 number amount on that. 

 

I prefer to look for a horse at a decent price that might place/win rather than so called odds on bankers. Not that I get much sucess with that  lol

 

Still think England can beat Brazil so at over 4/1 a cheeky £5 bet isn't that bad, even with my "I know I know, fool and his money are soon parted." comment

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leicesterisme

leicesterisme

Posted
Posted

Good post. Also the reason bookies offer 'enhanced odds' on these so called dead certs, to entice the casual punter to back.it. Doesn't always work though as Corals were offering Sprinter Sacre at evens i think during Cheltenham whilst every one else was 1/4 ish. They lost a significant 7 number amount on that. 

 

I prefer to look for a horse at a decent price that might place/win rather than so called odds on bankers. Not that I get much sucess with that  lol

 

Still think England can beat Brazil so at over 4/1 a cheeky £5 bet isn't that bad, even with my "I know I know, fool and his money are soon parted." comment

 

 

Yeah, the amount of offers I've seen over the past few days from bookies for Dawn Approach they will have made an absolute fortune today. 

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Posted
Posted (edited)

Yeah, the amount of offers I've seen over the past few days from bookies for Dawn Approach they will have made an absolute fortune today. 

 

Yep, any horse that has enhanced odds or special offers with multiple bookies then avoid like the plague. I've had loads of emails over the last few days involving Dawn Approach. Bookies must have pissed themselves when DA strolled over the line 2nd from last. As adam1 says it could never do the distance, look how it dropped off towards the end.

 

Anyway, my selections of Chopin and Battle Of Marengo were crap too who knows

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Matt

Matt

Posted
Posted

Yeah, well I had Dawn Approach in a Lucky 15, So it was just there to make up the numbers really, thinking it was a dead cert.

 

Not only that I did think it was by far the best horse in the race and would win, I wasn't just following the hype and big favouritism on it, I was wrong though.

 

Going for another Lucky 15 today, picking 3 favourites and 1 non-favourite (And I hadn't even looked at the odds before selecting so it is my fancies rather than picking favourites)

Fakenham - Lucky 15;

2.00 - Mawaakee - 10/3 (f)

3.30 - That's The Deal - 8/1

4.00 - Ifonlyalfie - 7/2 (f)

4.30 - Bach On Tow 7/4 (f)

 

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